Fantasy Football: Best ADP Values By Team

Best ADP Values

With seasonal league drafts in full swing, fantasy football owners are scouring late-round ADP players trying to find the hidden values. The key to an effective fantasy draft is identifying which players carry that huge upside ceiling that could pay off in a fantasy championship.

Let’s take a close look at the best fantasy values on each team per PPR Average Draft Position (ADP) on MyFantasyLeague.

(All statistics from PlayerProfiler).

Fantasy Football: Best ADP Values By Team

Arizona Cardinals: Chase Edmonds (RB)

In the Cardinals high-volume offense, Edmonds provides fantastic value at his 165.9 ADP (RB63). Teammate Kenyan Drake is clearly the lead running back but has never totaled more than 817 rushing yards in a season. Edmonds was incredibly efficient in 2019, illustrated by his +25.1 (10th best) Production Premium and 2.1 (fourth-best) yards per touch among all running backs. A hamstring injury in Week 8 limited his second half of the season, but it’s impossible to forget his explosive Week 7 performance.

 

Drake only totaled 61.2% of the rushing attempts in the eight games he started for the Cardinals. There is room for another fantasy relevant back in a Kliff Kingsbury‘s offense that ranked fourth in situation-neutral pace per Football Outsiders. With superior agility, Edmonds should carve out a weekly role in the Arizona offense, and has league-winning upside in the event of an injury.

Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan (QB)

There are a lot of high-priced fantasy weapons in Atlanta, which leads us to quarterback Matt Ryan.

Ryan has been the starting Atlanta quarterback since the 2008 season and has an overall QB2 finish (2016) on his resume. The former NFL MVP has nine consecutive seasons of at least 4000 passing yards. Atlanta’s offense has also generated at least 600 pass attempts in six of the past eight seasons. With injury concerns and COVID safety uncertainty now surrounding Todd Gurley, there is no reason to believe Atlanta will experience a drop-off in pass volume in 2020. The Falcons have the NFL’s toughest schedule per Vegas projected win totals and compete in a division with the high-powered Saints and Buccaneers. Ryan’s current ADP of 61.3 (QB8) is one of the safest fantasy redraft quarterback options that still maintains a Top-3 overall finish in his range of outcomes.

Baltimore Ravens: Marquise Brown (WR)

Marquise Brown made quite a splash in his first NFL game last season, which was a bellwether for the explosive Ravens offense.

The second-year Oklahoma product enjoyed a strong rookie season despite dealing with a screw in his foot after a Lisfranc injury that caused him to miss the 2019 Scouting Combine. Now fully healthy and with a reported 20 lbs of added muscle, Brown’s 81.9 ADP (WR33) represents one of the best wide receiver values in redraft leagues. Despite playing just 14 games, Brown tallied nine red zone receptions (13th among wide receivers) and ranked Top 10 in fantasy points per route run. As Baltimore’s WR1 tethered to the reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, Brown’s 6th/7th round ADP is simply criminal.

 

Buffalo Bills: Zack Moss (RB)

The popular projection is that Utah rookie Zack Moss will get the same usage as veteran Frank Gore did in 2019. If that happens, Moss is the clear best ADP value in Buffalo.

Gore tallied 166 rushing attempts and 13 receptions at the grizzled age of 36-years old. Moss enters the league after a dominant senior season at Utah that saw him tally 1804 total yards, 28 receptions, and 17 total touchdowns. His ADP is suppressed by the presence of second-year running back Devin Singletary who parlayed 151 rushing attempts and 41 targets into a modest 12.3 PPR fantasy points per game (28th among all running backs). Singletary’s 5-foot-7, 203 lb frame will not earn the coveted goal line touches over the fellow third-round back with a 32.9 (93rd percentile) Body Mass Index. Still available in the 11th round of FFPC Best Ball drafts, Moss is a cheap seasonal fantasy pick with legitimate RB2 upside in all formats.

Carolina Panthers:  Curtis Samuel (WR)

Curtis Samuel is the classic post-hype fantasy football sleeper. After a disappointing season that saw him finish just 48th in wide receiver fantasy points per game, Samuel’s ADP has plummeted to 164.8 (WR77) in seasonal leagues. Carolina’s 5.5 game win total is third-worst among all NFL teams and projected for a plethora of negative game scripts. Samuel’s still brings 4.31 (100th percentile) 40-Yard Dash speed with sneaky rushing upside.

 

With conservative new starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, the Carolina receivers should be peppered with short to intermediate route opportunities. Samuel’s ADP makes him virtually free in all seasonal drafts, which translates to the best Panthers’ fantasy value by a wide margin.

Chicago Bears:  Tarik Cohen (RB)

Very few fantasy drafters realize that Tarik Cohen has increased his targets and receptions in each of his first three NFL seasons. In fact, Cohen has been one of the most prolific receiving running backs in the 21st century.

While the fantasy community still debates on the projection for David Montgomery, Cohen continues to hover around on the fringe of an RB3/RB4. He was one of only four running backs to see 100 or more targets last season, including 30 over the final four games. Still being drafted around non-receiving backs like Jordan Howard and Marlon Mack, Cohen is one of the best late-round picks in any fantasy format.

Cincinnati Bengals:  A.J. Green (WR)

Has the fantasy community forgotten about A.J. Green? The 32-year old former All-Pro wideout missed the entire 2019 season as a result of surgery after a preseason ankle injury. Besides a physical absence from the field, fantasy drafters are also leary of rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and target competition with Tyler Boyd, John Ross, and rookie Tee Higgins. However, Green is now available in the seventh or eighth round of Best Ball leagues, even after his less accomplished teammate in Boyd. His 2018 season totals of 46 receptions, 694 receiving yards, and six touchdowns in just nine games would actually justify his current draft cost. A full season of Green will equate to massive value as the current WR32.

Cleveland Browns:  Kareem Hunt (RB)

Nick Chubb has a chance to be the 2019 version of Derrick Henry, but I am still bullish on Kareem Hunt in 2020. In a limited Cleveland receiving core, Hunt could actually serve as a de facto third wide receiver.

Hunt is a former NFL rushing champion (2017) and has averaged 4.6 receptions in his eight games played last season. The handcuff value in case of a Chubb injury is simply icing on the cake. With Jarvis Landry waiting until late-February to have surgery on his hip, Hunt could see an even increased target share to open the season. The handcuff value in case of a Chubb injury is simply icing on the cake. A 60-reception running back currently valued at RB30 is pure fantasy larceny.

Dallas Cowboys:  Michael Gallup (WR)

Teammate Amari Cooper is more accomplished and rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb receives more hype, but Michael Gallup is ready to outproduce both this season. He started the 2019 season slow after surgery for a meniscus tear cost him two games.  However, starting in Week 10 Gallup was the PPR WR10 with more fantasy points than D.J. Moore, DeAndre Hopkins, and Kenny Golladay. He still tallied 1107 receiving yards (18th among wide receivers) and his 16.8 yards per receptions was Top 10 at the position. Gallup’s 11 drops were most among wideouts but his current WR37 ADP is too much of a correction. With a truncated training camp shortening the chance for Lamb and quarterback Dak Prescott to build a rapport, Gallup can return similar value to Cooper at a greatly reduced price.

Denver Broncos:  Noah Fant (TE)

Denver brings a ton of fantasy football uncertainty to the 2020 season. Can Drew Lock become a consistent NFL quarterback? How will running back Melvin Gordon adapt to a new team? Is Courtland Sutton a true WR1 with the presence of rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy? The best value for the Broncos is the player with the least uncertainty, second-year tight end Noah Fant. While most tight ends fail to contribute in their rookie season, Fant totaled 40 receptions for 562 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The former first-round pick from Iowa possesses elite workout metrics across the board. Fant’s 4.50 (98th percentile) 40-Yard Dash and 10.47 (98th percentile) Catch Radius and among the best at his position. Currently going outside the Top 12 tight ends in FFPC Best Ball leagues, Fant is one of the few elite positional players available in round seven or later.

 

Detroit Lions: Marvin Jones (WR)

Marvin Jones has started 36 games for the Lions over the past three seasons. He has 23 touchdowns in that time, which is a 0.64 touchdown rate per game. Over a 16-game season, that projects to 10.2 touchdowns. In 2019 with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Jones was simply fantastic.

Stafford’s presence lifts the entire offense, especially Jones. His ADP is still outside the Top-36 wide receivers per FFPC Best Ball ADP. I love taking late-round wide receivers with boom potential, who have a suppressed ADP based solely on injury concerns. Marvin Jones is a priority target in all fantasy formats.

Green Bay Packers: A.J. Dillon (RB)

A picture is worth 1000 words. In the case of A.J. Dillon, last week’s picture of him simply standing on the sideline has placed doubt in the mind of Aaron Jones fans. At 6-foot-1, 247 lbs, Dillon has the size to be a bruising NFL running back. He tallied over 4200 rushing yards and produced 40 touchdowns in just three seasons at Boston College. Dillon’s presence should eliminate plodder Jamaal Williams from an offense that is clearly skewed towards running the ball more. Green Bay saw a dramatic decrease in their passing percentage in Matt LaFleur‘s first season as head coach. The Packers went from a 67.5% passing play percentage (highest in the league) to just 59.8& (16th) last season. The BC rookie is basically free in seasonal leagues with an average ADP around RB37. He is worth a late-round pick as a handcuff to Jones but would be the top overall waiver wire pickup in the event of an injury.

Houston Texans:  David Johnson (RB)

The fantasy perception of David Johnson was decimated by one simple video.

However, fantasy drafters have conveniently forgotten that prior to a Week 6 ankle sprain, Johnson was one of the best fantasy backs in the league. Through those six games, Johnson was the RB5 in PPR formats with more fantasy points than Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, and Aaron Jones. Now in Houston, look for Johnson to return to his early 2019 form with dynamic quarterback Deshaun Watson. If Carlos Hyde can tally over 1000 rushing yards in Houston, Johnson should have little trouble exceeding his current RB25 ADP.

Indianapolis Colts:  Jonathan Taylor (RB)

The rookie’s ADP has not risen far enough. The 226 lb Wisconsin running back with a 4.39 40-Yard Dash is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley.

The Colts feature the No. 1 offensive line per PFF, with the fifth-highest team rushing percentage in 2019. Taylor is available at end of a tier of running backs that all have major question marks. Taylor is set up for a league-winning fantasy second half and is available in Round 4 of most seasonal leagues.

Jacksonville Jaguars:  Tyler Eifert (TE)

In the world of late-round tight ends, Tyler Eifert is still somehow undervalued. With the news that 2019 third-round pick Josh Oliver needs surgery to repair a broken foot, Eifert is in-line for a strong target share on a shallow Jacksonville receiving depth chart. The prior relationship with new Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden was the tipping point for choosing Jacksonville as a free agent this offseason. The 29-year old former Bengals tight end has a 13 touchdown season on his resume from the 2015 season. Going at the obscenely low TE44 ADP, Eifert is a fantastic last-round pick with potential high-end TE2 upside.

Kansas City Chiefs: Mecole Hardman (WR)

The Kansas City offense is so explosive, why not take the cheapest piece? With high ADP’s attached to Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire it’s hard to classify a fantasy “value.” Our choice is the Chiefs’ second-year wideout with 4.33 speed.

Hardman ranked first among all wideouts in yards per reception (20.7) and yards per target (13.1). His 2.02 average yards of separation ranked third at the position, and Mahomes 146.6 QB rating when targeting him was tops for any QB/WR duo. At WR61 the investment is minimal, and Hardman could easily establish himself as the clear WR2 in the NFL’s most explosive offense.

Los Angeles Chargers: Keenan Allen (WR)

There has been so much turnover in the Chargers offense, finding the best fantasy value is a tricky proposition. Austin Ekeler should be ready to ascend to the lead role in the backfield but is being appropriately drafted in the middle of Round 2. The ADP cost tight end Hunter Henry (TE9) is high given the unknown fantasy effect with new quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The ambiguous target share has pushed veteran wideout, Keenan Allen, down too far in ADP. Allen has seen 287 targets the past two seasons with consecutive WR13 and WR8 finishes. Regardless of how different the offense looks with Taylor, its impossible to find another low-end WR2 with a pedigree of over 200 catches the past two seasons. Still only 28 years old, Allen is a master of gaining fantasy points off short to intermediate routes, with 368 yards after the catch (ninth among wide receivers) in 2019.

Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff (QB)

Most fantasy drafters would not realize Jared Goff led all quarterbacks in passing attempts last season (626). Per JJ Zachariason, there have been 60 times two or more WRs & TEs on the same team have been drafted in the first five rounds. The average finish for those respective quarterbacks has been QB11.  Goff saw his touchdown rate dip from 5.9% in 2018, to 5.7% in 2019, to a surprisingly low 3.5% last season. Without Todd Gurley, the Rams now feature an ambiguous backfield, likely increasing Goff’s red zone attempts as well.  If you are looking for a late-round quarterback with high pass volume for seasonal leagues, Jared Goff is a great choice. 

Miami Dolphins:  Preston Williams (WR)

Recency bias has caused fantasy drafters to forget just how good Preston Williams was as a rookie before tearing his ACL in Week 9. The UDFA from Colorado State earned 7.5 targets per game and 3 receiving touchdowns in roughly a half a season. Williams on-field presence also severely limited DeVante Parkers production: 

Williams should be back at the beginning of the season, making the chasm between Parker’s ADP (WR28) and his (WR72) completely indefensible.

Minnesota Vikings:  Irv Smith Jr. (TE)

This one feels like stealing. At a 159.3 ADP, fantasy drafters are forgetting Irv Smith could be operating as the Vikings’ third-best receiving option this season. Smith’s 4.63 40-Yard Dash at 6-foot-2, 242 lbs, makes him a difficult matchup for opposing defenses. Smith tallied seven red zone receptions in 2019, an exceptional number for a rookie tight end. First-round LSU-product Justin Jefferson will be receiving an all-time low period of prep work for a rookie and is reportedly still practicing with the second unit. With a Stefon Diggs-shaped hole now on the roster, Smith could easily be the second-best receiving option behind Adam Thielen.

New England Patriots: Cam Newton (QB)

The shortened preseason has helped suppress Cam Newtons ADP to the point of the best value in New England. The former 2015 NFL MVP has fully recovered from a mid-foot sprain that cost him most of his 2019 season. Don’t forget just how good Newton was in 2018 before a major shoulder injury:

A healthy Cam Newton paired with legendary coach Bill Belichick certainly makes the current QB22 a fantastic seasonal league target.

New Orleans Saints: Emmanuel Sanders (WR)

Emmanuel Sanders brings a long resume of fantasy success to start alongside 2018 and 2019 receptions leader Michael Thomas. Despite Drew Brees‘ advanced age (41-years old) the Saints still passed over 60% of the time last season. New Orleans certainly remembers Sanders’ dominant Week 14 performance where he tallied seven receptions, 157 yards, and two total touchdowns in-route the overall WR1 fantasy performance. 

 

Even at age 33, Sanders will have to do very little to justify his current WR64 ADP.

New York Giants: Golden Tate (WR)

It is shocking to see Golden Tate with the lowest ADP of any Giants’ wide receiver.  The 32-year old wideout missed the first four games of the 2019 season after being suspended for using a fertility drug, but still managed 7.7 targets per game. Just using Tate’s 2019 per game averages he projects to 72 receptions, 984 receiving yards, and 8.7 touchdowns which translates to last season’s WR19. This is amazing value for a veteran wideout currently going at WR67.

New York Jets: Jamison Crowder (WR)

Fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard. Crowder is coming off a 122-target season and is currently going as the WR59. As the clear WR1 in the Jets offense, Crowder is being drafted after clear team WR2s such as Marvin Jones and Christian Kirk. The Jets have the third-hardest schedule per 2020 Vegas projected win totals, increasing the likelihood of a pass-heavy approach. Don’t’ overthink it. Crowder is a slam-dunk late-round wide receiver pick coming off a Top-2o positional finish in targets, receptions, and red zone receptions.

Las Vegas Raiders:  Bryan Edwards (WR)

The Raiders are a tough team to find fantasy value because their offensive players are binary: either highly coveted or undesired. While first-round pick Henry Ruggs is getting the most attention, fantasy drafters should pay attention to his fellow rookie wideout, Bryan Edwards. At 6-foot-3, 212 lbs, the South Carolina-product has the quintessential body type for an NFL receiver. Edwards was also an immediate star for the Gamecocks.

The only reason Edwards fell to the third round of this year’s draft, was as a result of surgery on a foot injury that limited his spectacular senior season. South Carolina gave Edwards 11.3 targets per game before the injury. Currently available in the last round of seasonal leagues, Edwards’ range of outcomes includes the WR1 on a Las Vegas team in desperate need of playmakers to compete with Kansas City in the AFC West.

Philadelphia Eagles:  Dallas Goedert (TE)

On a depth chart with limited wide receiver options, Goedert will continue to take another step forward in his third NFL season. As a superior prospect from South Dakota State, Goedert has forged a way to be fantasy relevant despite just a 69.3% snap share in 2019. His athleticism at 6-foot-5 265 lbs is a difficult matchup for opposing linebackers.

Goedert finished Top 10 at the position in receptions (58), receiving yards (607), total touchdowns (five), and yards after catch (337). He maintains Top 5 tight end upside in the case of an injury to Zach Ertz and is currently available in Round 8 as TE19. Goedert is a great upside pick in TE premium leagues, and as a second tight end in all seasonal formats.

Pittsburgh Steelers:  Diontae Johnson (WR)

Johnson managed to impress as a rookie even with Pittsburgh’s inferior quarterback play. The Toledo-product produced four WR1 weeks including the overall WR8 performance in the critical Week 16. Johnson ranked first among all wide receivers in target separation which should provide the foundation for a dramatic increase in fantasy production with Ben Roethlisberger‘s return. With JuJu Smith-Schuster currently going as a WR1, Diontae Johnson is the best receiving value as a low-end WR3. If Roethlisberger stays healthy for the majority of the season, Johnson should comfortably smash that value.

San Francisco 49ers:  Brandon Aiyuk (WR)

The top projected receiver in Kyle Shanahan’s offense needs to be drafted before the WR52 spot. After Deebo Samuels foot fracture, Aiyuk should be the top outside receiver in the San Francisco offense for Week 1. General Manager John Lynch has already mentioned how great Aiyuk has been in practice. With the only depth chart being Kendrick Bourne and Trent Taylor, Aiyuk could see a monstrous target share early in the season. It’s always important to get off to a good start in the fantasy season, and Aiyuk (WR41) provides one of the best values on the board.

Seattle Seahawks:  Tyler Lockett (WR)

The ADP gap between Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf has closed so much, that now the veteran is actually the better value. The connection between the 27-year old wideout and quarterback Russell Wilson remains as strong as ever.

Lockett’s efficiency metrics are underrated by fantasy drafters. He has finished fourth among all wide receivers in catch rate each of the past two seasons. Lockett finished second to Michael Thomas in red zone receptions last year and is always most the most productive per target player. In 2018, Lockett finished first among all wideouts with 3.1 fantasy points per target. Currently being drafted as the WR23, Lockett remains the WR1 in a consolidated target share tethered to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Ronald Jones (RB)

Ronald Jones may be the most polarizing fantasy player in the 2020 season. This is either his breakout season or he will be relegated to backup duty by rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn. We are betting on the former as the explosive back from USC enters the season as the lead running back in the ideal fantasy setting. Jones was always an explosive runner but has dedicated himself to improving in the passing game.

As the lead running back in a Tom Brady-led offense, Jones as a chance to reach high-end RB2 status this season. Currently being drafted at RB32, the third-year back is actually going later than the rookie Vaughn. Jones is one of the few mid-round running backs that have fantasy league-winner in his range of outcomes.

Tennessee Titans: Jonnu Smith (TE)

One of the best tight end breakout candidates this season is Jonnu Smith. He boasted a 33 percent (92nd percentile) College Dominator rating at Florida International and is the clear lead tight end following Delanie Walker’s release in March.

Smith flashed his potential midway through 2019, playing an average of 81 percent of the Titans snaps from Week 7 onward. He generated the second-most Yards per Target (9.8) and eighth-best Yards per Reception (12.5) at the position. His 277 yards after the catch (eighth-best) demonstrates his big-play ability. Smith’s current 9th round ADP makes him a bargain if he continues to build on last year’s promising connection with quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

Washington Football Team: Steven Sims (WR)

As an undrafted free agent from Kansas in 2019, Steven Sims fought his way onto the roster with an impressive preseason. He impressed during his rookie season with an ability to create separation, ranking 10th among all wide receivers. Sims flashed throughout the season, especially on special teams.

Sims ended the season with his two best performances, finishing as the WR4 and WR14 consecutively in Weeks 16 and 17. With Kelvin Harmon now out for the season after tearing his ACL, the Washington depth chart is wide open behind leading wideout Terry McLaurin. With reports continuing to tout Sims’ potential impact, he is a huge buy at a rock-bottom ADP of 195.4. Take advantage of this value opportunity in a nebulous and unattractive Washington offense.

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