The New England Patriots brought back a familiar face Sunday, signing once and future quarterback Brian Hoyer to a one-year, $1 million deal. This is well below what Hoyer could have received on the open market, but he reportedly wanted a chance to start. Jarrett Stidham is the only serious competition on the roster, and there is a chance that Hoyer beats out the 2018 fourth-rounder. However, there is no situation where starting Hoyer makes sense for the Patriots. New England needs to find out if they have a franchise quarterback in Stidham, or if they need to go grab one in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Even With Brian Hoyer, New England Patriots Should Start Jarrett Stidham
By the sound of it, Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham will spend the offseason fighting for the right to start. New England could add another quarterback to the mix in the NFL Draft, but these two stand the best chance at starting in Week 1. If Stidham is the better guy, he’ll obviously be the starter. However, even if Hoyer looks like the better quarterback, the Patriots should roll with Stidham heading into the regular season.
Every organization wants to win the Super Bowl, and the best way to do that is by finding a legitimate franchise quarterback. For the last 20 years, the Patriots haven’t had to worry about that. However, with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, New England’s top priority needs to be finding the next guy.
Brian Hoyer has been in the league since 2009 and, while serviceable in his own right, is not a franchise quarterback. Jarrett Stidham might be the future, but there’s no way to know without sending him into live action. Offseason practices and preseason games can give you a rough idea of how good a guy is, but there’s no way to truly know without seeing him in actual, meaningful games. Starting Stidham for a full 16-game season means one of two things: either New England lucked out and found their quarterback of the future, or they’re going to be in an ideal position to get their franchise quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft.
The Merits of Tanking
If Jarrett Stidham is notably worse than Brian Hoyer, then starting him for a full 16-game season should give the Patriots one of the best picks in the 2021 NFL Draft. Hoyer is nothing special, but he is capable of accidentally getting hot and winning a few games. The Patriots should try to avoid this at all costs, as Hoyer isn’t good enough to win a Super Bowl. If your quarterback isn’t good enough to win a Super Bowl, your primary goal should be finding someone that is. The best way of doing that is improving your draft capital by losing as many games as possible.
The Miami Dolphins almost did this correctly in 2019. Throughout the offseason, the team made move after move that made them worse in the short term but increased their long-term chances of sustained success. Thanks to their moves, the Dolphins enter the 2020 NFL Draft with three first-round picks and two first-round picks in 2021.
The one mistake they made was trying to win once the actual games started. The Dolphins got off to one of the worst starts in NFL history, losing every game in embarrassing fashion. However, the team steadily improved over the course of the season and ended up going 5-11. Because of these wins, the Dolphins now have the fifth pick in the draft. They don’t stand a chance at getting Joe Burrow, and they’ll probably need to sacrifice some draft capital to trade up and get Tua Tagovailoa.
The only argument against tanking is that intentionally losing destroys the morale of the players currently on the team. However, that morale can easily be rebuilt by getting a true franchise quarterback on a favorable deal. Losing is simply part of the rebuilding process, and grabbing someone like Trevor Lawrence is an easy way to make players forget about an unenjoyable 2020.
If Stidham turns out to be good, then this isn’t even a question for the Patriots. However, if Stidham is bad, then the Patriots just need to deal with one ugly season before locking up the position for the next 15 years. Either way, Brian Hoyer shouldn’t see the field in 2020.
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