We’re eight weeks into the season and the Chicago Bears are already nearing must-win territory. The argument could be made they are already there; stuck in the drolls of a two-game losing streak with a non-existent offense. But they have the exact same record as they did a year ago at the same point in the season and a winnable game on the docket.
The Los Angeles Chargers come into Soldier Field in the midst of their own losing streak which, in their case, has extended three games. It is their second losing streak of the season and has them sitting at 2-5 after losing four games all of last season on the way to a Wild Card appearance. How can the Bears take advantage?
Stop the Stubbornness
Bears head coach Matt Nagy acknowledged the part he played in the offense on having seven total rushing attempts against the New Orleans Saints. But acknowledging the shortcomings is different than going about correcting them. Self-scouting is something Nagy has often referred to. So far whatever adjustments have been made haven’t worked.
His affinity for the pass, often to the detriment of the running game, is well-documented. But L.A. is 21st in rushing attempts and 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. The Bears offense has been terrible, but one way to help get it back on track would be to actually stick with the run. That means even if they don’t get a big gain immediately.
Running backs, and particularly those like David Montgomery, tend to do better when they can get a high number of carries to wear down the defense. After six games, Montgomery has 26 carries in the first halves of games. That number jumps to 45 over the second halves. Perhaps earlier commitment can get more from the ground attack late in games.
L.A. is allowing just over 216 passing yards per contest; fifth-best in the NFL (Bears are 13th). But their 4.2 rushing yards per carry allowed is more than any other team the Bears have played except the Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins. You expect losing teams to face more runs, but the Bolts took the lead or a tie into the second half in three of their five losses.
Do What You Do, Only Better
The Chargers offense is 14th in DVOA and may seem like the definition of mediocre. They’re the ninth-ranked passing offense but are the 30th ranked rushing offense. Philip Rivers is fourth in pass completions (second in attempts), fourth in yards, and 10th in completion percentage. He’s tied for 12th with 11 touchdowns and ninth with six interceptions.
Chicago would do well to keep the Chargers one-dimensional, and if Los Angeles continues to struggle on the ground, that task will be simple. They got Melvin Gordon back in the fold, but his return actually coincides with the current skid they’re on. He has 36 carries for 81 yards in three games and fumbled at the end of last week’s loss to the Tennessee Titans.
Gordon’s stand-in, Austin Ekeler, hadn’t fared much better on the ground. He has three rushing touchdowns but only averaged 3.6 yards per carry but has been better in the passing game. He has 49 receptions for 488 yards and four touchdowns. One thing the Bears have struggled with, really since last season, is backs catching passes out of the backfield.
Linebacker Roquan Smith is struggling right now. He hesitated on a key Teddy Bridgewater scramble in Week 7 that would’ve gotten the ball back for the Bears when the game was still competitive. The Bears should not hesitate to replace Smith with Nick Kwiatkoski if he struggles again. Kwiatkoski isn’t close to the athlete Smith is but he is decisive and right now, Smith isn’t.
Bears Already Facing Must-Win
If Mitchell Trubisky continues to struggle so much with accuracy, then it will be a repeat of recent history for the Bears. The Chargers will be anticipating a more run-heavy approach to protect the quarterback. But L.A. is 19th in Pass Rush Win Rate and 23rd in sacks. So there could be opportunities through the air if he could just put the ball on his receiver.
The Bears are dealing with a host of injuries but the Chargers are even worse off. They are missing pieces in their secondary but have been hit hardest along the lines. They’ll be without pass rusher Melvin Ingram on the defensive line and, while they will get tackle Russell Okung back this week, both center Mike Pouncey and guard Forrest Lamp are on IR.
Chicago had their chance against New Orleans but their feeble offense was no match for the Saints surging defense. The Chargers aren’t nearly as stout on that side of the ball, but Rivers and the rest of that offense will be are at least as much of a challenge as the version of the Saints the Bears faced. Khalil Mack and crew need to have a big game.
The division-leading Packers (6-1) and Minnesota Vikings (5-2) aren’t going away anytime soon. There will be a lot of tough questions asked and decisions to be made in the off-season if they Bears fall any further behind. They have to figure out the offense; opponents certainly have. It isn’t ‘early’ anymore.
Prediction: Rivers, Gordon, and Keenan Allen are going to try and mimic what the Saints did. The defense will be get caught off guard early but stand up as the game goes on. It’s hard to have faith in this offense to capitalize when they do. Chargers: 28 Bears: 17
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