The Baltimore Ravens welcomed a new crop of rookies to their training facilities last Friday and Saturday. They selected a total of eight players from April 25-27 and signed another 17 through undrafted free agency. Among the 25 new Ravens, one stands out as needing to have an immediate impact. That is Oklahoma State’s Justice Hill. Hill was taken with the Ravens 113th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and looks to be a perfect fit in the current Ravens offense.
Baltimore put a lot of stock into improving their offense in the 2019 draft but Hill may be poised for the most successful season among general manager Eric DeCosta‘s picks. In an offense that features the run, Hill has a chance to become the most immediately impactful Ravens rookie in 2019.
So many puns to choose from, but they wouldn't do him Justice.
First look @jhill21_ 👀 pic.twitter.com/OIqSvKyAZs
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) May 5, 2019
Assessing Justice Hill’s Chances to Be Baltimore Ravens Rookie of the Year in 2019
His Skillset
Hill’s most dominant and distinctive feature is his speed. He demonstrated this in college at Oklahoma State by showing his ability to break off long runs and stack up huge amounts of yardage. At OSU, Hill piled up 19 games with 100+ yards during his three-year career and added 31 touchdowns; 30 on the ground and one through the air. He had an average of 5.6 yards per carry over his tenure and an average of 5.9 in his final season. The rest of the NFL then took notice when Hill ran a 4.40 40-yard dash time at the Combine, finishing first among participating running backs.
However, the quality that is going to allow Hill to get on the field early is his ability to catch the ball. Very few of the top-rated running backs going into the draft showed a track record of catching the ball in college and Hill’s numbers were among the best. Hill actually out received the first running back taken off the board in 2019, Josh Jacobs, by one reception. Not a huge margin, but a margin none the less. Hill’s best season came in 2017 when he recorded a career-high 1,467 rushing yards and 190 receiving yards on 31 catches.
Though he is a bit undersized, Hill still has the tools to succeed in a big way in the Ravens offense. Baltimore brought in Mark Ingram to provide a consistent power threat but Lamar Jackson needs a runner that can catch the ball out of the backfield. Hill’s speed makes him a threat to take the ball 30+ yards every time he finds space.
Why He Fits the Offense
With the Ravens run-heavy scheme they plan to employ, there is also likely going to be a strong rotation of runners around Jackson. Hill has a unique skill set in comparison to the rest of the runners on his team and could be used in a variety of different situations. There is a good chance that if Hill impresses early during the season, he should become the Ravens go-to third down back. This is also contingent on Hill also becoming better as a blocker in the NFL.
Hill fits into the Ravens offense because Baltimore doesn’t have a back like Hill in their arsenal. Besides Ingram, Gus Edwards is about as down-hill a runner as you’ll find, and Kenneth Dixon is elusive but not a homerun hitter out of the backfield. NFL.com’s Dan Parr noted the synergy of the Ingram and Hill pairing potential as well. “If the explosive running back lives up to that billing, he’ll be a perfect sidekick for Mark Ingram in the backfield.” Hill isn’t a perfect receiving back but his upside is clearly higher than his competitors.
Though many believed that former offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg‘s play calling hindered the Ravens last season, he found a great way to open up holes in the running game. There were multiple games when the Ravens turned to an option-based offense, that both Edwards and Dixon were able to fly into the secondaries with ease. Both backs finished with averages of above 5.20 yards per carry. If he can show the balance he displayed in college in the pros, Hill could exploit these holes even further than his teammates.
Rookie Season Projections
A lot of things would need to go right for Hill to enter the NFL offensive rookie of the year discussion but he will still mean a lot to the Ravens going forward. Hill himself has said he models his game after Alvin Kamara — another mid-round pick. Kamara did a lot of his damage in a rotation with Hill’s new teammate Ingram, complimenting the power-back in, potentially, a similar way.
For comparison, Hill is expected to fill the pass-catching role between the four main Ravens running backs. Last year Javorius Allen led all Ravens runners with 35 receptions. He was a favorite of Joe Flacco‘s but fell out of favor after Jackson took over. Almost all of Allen’s production was accumulated under Flacco as he didn’t register a catch after Jackson made his first start. Ty Montgomery caught 10 passes after joining the Ravens in Week Eight. Both Allen and Montgomery combined to play 35.7 percent of snaps and a similar figure is likely for Hill. Hill’s 2018 percentage will probably be closer to 30 than 35 but this should be more than enough usage to rattle off some big plays.
The Ravens ran the ball 316 times between weeks 11 and 17 with Jackson under center. That’s an average of just over 45 attempts per game. In 2019 it’s likely this figure comes down a bit, but this would still indicate Hill could get a nice portion of the attempts as well as be a primary look in the passing game.
Best case scenario, Hill could average around nine touches a game; finding time on the ground, through the air and factoring into the screen game. Tarik Cohen averaged 8.75 touches a game as a rookie in 2017 in an offense that featured the run less.
Last Word
One specific phrase that best described how Baltimore attacked the draft was used by the NFL Network’s Daniel Jerimiah. When talking to coach John Harbaugh after the conclusion of day three of the draft he said “you guys are building a track team” in reference to the speed Baltimore decided to add to their roster. This started with the pick of Marquise Brown in the first round but applied the selections of third rounder Miles Boykin and Hill. Each of Brown, Boykin (4.42), Jackson and Hill (presumably) have under 4.45 40-speed and will likely all be on the field at times for Baltimore. That big-play ability is going to open up a lot of space for Hill.
Another thing that will keep Hill likely in Harbaugh’s favor is his ball security. Alex Collins often got into trouble after fumbling too often in his two seasons as a Raven. Hill was as secure as they get in college only fumbling five times over his OSU career.
There’s a lot to like about Hill’s role as a Raven right now and moving past his rookie season.
