After having running backs with set roles for the first time in years, the New England Patriots are back in a state of uncertainty. Running back Rex Burkhead has started practicing and could be activated off the short-term IR list for Week 13. Dual-threat running backs of his caliber aren’t usually available at this point in the season, and Burkhead has the chance to be a sneaky-good add heading into the fantasy football playoffs.
However, fantasy football owners would be wise to wait before adding him to their rosters. While Burkhead has flex potential, his production is anything but certain. Smart fantasy players should monitor this situation and should wait until there’s more clarity with Burkhead before putting in a claim.
Fantasy Football: Rex Burkhead Worth An Add Eventually, Just Not Right Now
Let’s start this article with a disclaimer: if you’re in a league with an IR spot, go grab Burkhead. Until he’s activated from the short-term IR, you can stash him without having to worry about a roster crunch. However, this post is intended for owners who don’t have the luxury of the IR spot.
There are two major red flags with Burkhead: his health and potential snap distribution. Let’s start with his health first. Obviously, any player coming off an IR stint is an inherent injury risk, especially one with a long history of durability questions. Burkhead missed the majority of the 2018 season with a neck injury, but this isn’t his first battle with injury.
During his first season in New England, Burkhead missed six games due to rib and knee injuries. Burkhead cannot return until Week 13 at the earliest, so he will miss at least 14 of a possible 27 games as a Patriot. Compounding this issue is the fact that the Patriots haven’t announced when they plan to activate him. This is par for the course with a traditionally shut-lip Patriots organization, but it’s still worrisome from a fantasy football perspective.
Just because the Patriots can bring Burkhead back for Week 13 doesn’t mean they will. With Burkhead’s extensive injury history, New England may choose to bring him along slowly so he can be fresh for the playoff run. They basically did the same thing over the past month with Rob Gronkowski, so the organization clearly sees value in trying to conserve their injury-prone stars.
Rex Burkhead’s Snap Count
While the Patriots don’t have much depth at the running back position, they have two bonafide stars at the top of the depth chart. James White is currently putting together a historic season and is one of the most dangerous backs in the passing game. There’s an argument to be made that he’s the most important player in the offense (outside of Tom Brady) simply because he contributes so much to the passing game.
Meanwhile, New England is also getting a healthy Sony Michel back for the final stretch of the season. While Michel has serious injury concerns of his own, nobody can deny his potential when he’s healthy. Michel’s only been at 100% in three games this season, but he’s been unstoppable in those games. From Weeks Four to Six, Michel ran for a combined 316 yards and four touchdowns on 67 carries. He re-injured his knee in Week Seven but made his return in Week 10. Michel claims he’s in the best shape of the season, so he should return to the lead back position.
Quite frankly, Burkhead isn’t the pass-catcher White is or the runner Michel is. He’ll see the field, as the teams current third running back is Cordarrelle Patterson, but it’s hard to imagine Burkhead getting too big of a workload. The options ahead of him are simply better.
So Why Claim Him At All?
Burkhead comes with his share of risks, but he still belongs on a fantasy roster once his status becomes more clear. While he isn’t the best pass-catcher or runner on the roster, he’s probably the teams most complete running back.
It’s no secret that James White is a wide receiver playing running back. So far on the season, White his 66 receptions and just 61 carries. When White’s in the game, it’s actually more likely for him to catch the ball than it is for him to take a carry. That’s basically unprecedented for a running back who plays as often as White does.
On the other end of the spectrum, Sony Michel has 106 carries and just four receptions on the season. While he has the raw skillset to succeed as a pass-catcher, the Patriots haven’t used him in that role. Michel has played in 157 snaps on the season, so the Patriots hand the ball off to him a staggering 67.5% of the time he’s on the field.
This running back usage has made the Patriots offense very predictable. Opposing defenses are able to “cheat” based on which player is in the game. If White’s in the backfield, it’s probably a passing play. If Michel’s in the backfield, it’s probably a run. This obviously makes it harder for the offense as a whole to function, as defenses don’t have to defend against a full range of possibilities.
Burkhead is the only back capable of beating opposing defenses on the ground and in the air. In 2017, Burkhead recorded 264 rushing yards and five touchdowns and 64 carries to go along with 30 receptions for 254 yards and three additional scores. He averaged a respectable 4.1 yards per carry and 8.5 yards per reception. Basically, Burkhead did enough in both facets of the game that defenses never knew what to expect when he was on the field.
A lot of New England’s recent struggles can be attributed to predictable play calling. Even though Burkhead isn’t quite as dangerous as White in the passing game or Michel in the running game, he possesses the ability to keep defenses on their toes. This dangerous element alone will give New England every reason to play him and should lead to some solid fantasy production.
Last Word on Rex Burkhead in Fantasy Football
2018 has been a lost season for Rex Burkhead, but the Patriots running back is coming back just in time for the fantasy football playoffs. However, fantasy owners should be wary about stashing him for multiple weeks.
Burkhead has an extensive history of injuries and, as of now, is no guarantee to return for Week 13. Stashing him for one week is one thing, but he may not be worth a multi-week stash. Additionally, Burkhead will probably be third in the running back carousel, as James White and Sony Michel are having fantastic seasons.
That said, Burkhead can still fill a role and could be a smart add for a team with running back injuries. He’s the Patriots most complete back and adds an element of unpredictability to the Patriots offense. He’ll see some playing time when he eventually makes his return even if his ceiling is relatively low.
The best thing to do is keep your ear to the ground. Follow the Patriots beat reporters on Twitter and monitor the Patriots practice reports. Once you feel comfortable predicting Burkhead’s return, make your claim. Until then, just wait it out and hold on to your existing depth.
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