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The Buffalo Bills Should Make a Move for Sterling Shepard

Amid reports that the New York Giants want to be sellers ahead of the trade deadline, the Buffalo Bills should consider targeting Sterling Shepard.
Sterling Shepard

With a week until the NFL trade deadline, already there have been some interesting moves. The Dallas Cowboys made headlines on Monday when they agreed to send a 2019 first-round pick to the Oakland Raiders for wide receiver Amari Cooper. A day later, the New Orleans Saints got in on the action when they acquired cornerback Eli Apple from the New York Giants in exchange for a few later round picks in next year’s draft.

Those two transactions certainly won’t be the last ones before October 30 at 4 p.m. ET. And it’s possible that the Giants aren’t finished with the wheeling and dealing. In the wake of the Apple trade, Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports hinted via Twitter that the team is open to offers for other players as well.

It’s certainly understandable. After their 23-20 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football, the Giants stand at 1-6 for the second straight season. Since the merger, only once has a team made the playoffs after getting off to such a start: the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals. With Eli Manning starting to really show his age, it may behoove general manager Dave Gettleman to stockpile draft capital with an eye towards the future.

Among the teams who should be courting players on the Giants roster are the Buffalo Bills. Of particular interest is Sterling Shepard. His presence would serve as a significant upgrade to a receiving corps that, as currently comprised, is arguably the worst in the NFL. What underscores this notion is the fact that Bills receivers have accounted for a league-worst 1,092 yards.

Why Sterling Shepard to the Buffalo Bills Makes Sense

Helping to Make the Quarterback’s Job Easier

Buffalo’s quarterback situation certainly isn’t helping. It began with Nathan Peterman lasting a half before getting replaced by Josh Allen in the season-opener. Allen showed flashes at times before suffering an elbow injury against the Houston Texans. Still, it’s pretty clear he needs quite a bit of work before he’s truly ready to take the reins as a viable NFL-caliber starter. It means that, for the time being, veteran Derek Anderson, who they signed on October 9, is the man in charge behind center.

Anderson’s Bills debut certainly elicits further concern at the position. In a 37-5 scorigami loss to the Indianapolis Colts, he didn’t manage a single passing touchdown yet threw it to opposing defenders three times. It resulted in him finishing with a 39.8 passer rating for the game. That said, his first interception probably could have been prevented had Kelvin Benjamin been more proactive in keeping the ball out of Mike Mitchell‘s hands.

It’s hard to find a more oft-criticized receiver in 2018 than Benjamin. Though he realized season highs in receptions and yardage against the Colts, his overall numbers remain putrid. In addition to his minuscule 217 receiving yards through seven games, he’s also not catching a lot of balls thrown his way. Benjamin’s catch percentage (receptions/targets) currently stands at 37.8 percent. As of right now, he’s on pace for 84 targets in 2018. Since 2000, only six receivers have finished with 80 or more targets and a catch percentage below 40 percent.

Contrast that with Shepard. He’s one of just eight receivers in the NFL this year with 50 or more targets and a 70+ percent catch percentage. Add in the fact that the Bills’ leading receiver, Zay Jones, is catching just over half of his targets and it highlights how valuable Shepard could be to the Bills offense. In addition, his 508 receiving yards in 2018 are over double that of Jones.

The Economics Are Doable, But What Will the Bills Have to Give Up

Part of what’s hindering the Bills from fielding a competitive roster this season is their salary cap situation. More specifically, it surrounds their bloated dead money charge. The cap hits of 20 players no longer on the roster are contributing to over $55 million in dead cap, by far the highest in the NFL. Ironically enough, the Giants come in second but their number is over $24 million below that of Buffalo’s

Having said that, the Bills do have slightly over $9 million in cap space. That’s more than enough to add Shepard to the roster. The Oklahoma product is currently in the third year of his rookie deal. And as a second-round pick, his cap number coming into this season stood at around $1.6 million. Per OverTheCap.com, the Bills would only be on the hook for his $990,416 base salary as a result of a post-June 1 trade. With Shepard in a contract year next season, this is a legitimate low-risk, high-reward move that gives Allen a dynamic pass-catching weapon in 2019.

The big question surrounds what general manager Brandon Beane is willing to give up and what Gettleman is asking for Shepard. Buffalo currently owns 10 picks in next year’s draft, including two apiece in the fourth, fifth and seventh rounds. So there’s definitely a way to put together a package deal without sacrificing too much draft capital. It’s in stark contrast to what former Bills G.M. Doug Whaley pulled off to draft Sammy Watkins in 2014 when he could’ve stayed put and taken Odell Beckham Jr.

Fast forward to the present and circumstance may favor the Bills bringing in a lesser heralded yet undoubtedly talented member of the Giants receiving corps. It’s a win-win for two teams who have Super Bowl connections but have a lot of work to do if they want to return to that biggest of NFL stages.

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