The Buffalo Bills erased 17 years of anguish and frustration by qualifying for the playoffs last season. It was vindication for first-year head coach Sean McDermott whose “playoff caliber” mantra became more than just a catchy punchline. But heading into year two of his tenure, questions abound as to whether or not this team is capable of a repeat appearance.
Perhaps the biggest uncertainty, as it has tended to be with this franchise since Jim Kelly retired, is at the quarterback position. The team dealt Tyrod Taylor to the Cleveland Browns, brought in A.J. McCarron from the Cincinnati Bengals, and drafted Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick of the 2018 draft. Add in Nathan Peterman who reportedly impressed during OTAs and minicamp and it’s a murky situation that only the preseason will clear up.
Generally speaking, nine wins tend to be the threshold when it comes to making the postseason. Though tiebreakers play their own part (as the Bills found out in rather favorable fashion last year), a 9-7 mark is overwhelmingly good enough to make it as a wildcard at the bare minimum. So how do the Bills get there in 2018? And which teams do they absolutely have to beat in order to finish among the top six teams in the AFC?
Which Games on the 2018 Buffalo Bills Schedule Are Must Wins?
Week Two – Los Angeles Chargers
This is the Bills first home game of 2018. It features a team in the Chargers who appeared to deal Buffalo a critical blow to their postseason hopes in Week 11 of last year. That 54-24 blowout loss included one of the more dubious stats of the entire 2017 season when Peterman threw five interceptions in the first half. The loss dropped the Bills to 5-5 which, combined with the perceived quarterback soap opera that emerged out of the game, seemed to herald a late-season meltdown.
History certainly proved otherwise. But that loss is likely still fresh in the memories of the players who experienced it, especially Peterman. If he somehow wins the starting job, this is a game that undoubtedly gives him an opportunity for redemption. But the pass-rushing pressure which precipitated his baptism by fire hasn’t gone away. If anything, it’s even more fierce with second-round pick Uchenna Nwosu joining Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram on the defensive front.
One of the more fascinating matchups in this game is Philip Rivers vs the bevy of defensive playmakers in the Bills’ secondary. Can Tre’Davious White avoid a sophomore slump and force some mistakes out of the 36-year-old veteran? What will new arrival Vontae Davis provide? Is the dynamic safety tandem of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in line for another standout season? This early season game may answer many of those questions.
Week Five – Tennessee Titans
Last year, it was the Bills and Titans who comprised the two wild-card spots in the AFC. The Titans invariably had more success given their upset of the Kansas City Chiefs, the franchise’s first playoff victory in 14 years. But they decided to make a coaching change in the off-season, parting ways with Mike Mularkey and hiring Mike Vrabel who spent 2017 as defensive coordinator of the Houston Texans. This will be the Titans first foray into Western New York since the 2012 season.
Success has proved elusive for the Bills in this series ever since their infamous loss in the 1999 playoffs. They’ve won just two of the next seven games against the Titans with their last victory at home ironically coming in week one of the 2000 season. But they narrowly won the previous meeting, a 14-13 triumph in Nashville on October 11, 2015. Once again, they face off in October with this being just the second home game of the season for the Bills.
Buffalo will come into this matchup having played the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers on the road in weeks three and four. If they drop both those games against two formidable NFC opponents, it makes this even more of a must win. The task at hand won’t be easy with the Titans expected to remain relevant in the AFC playoff picture. They had an impressive off-season that included Malcolm Butler and Dion Lewis joining from the New England Patriots. And they improved their front seven dramatically with the selections of Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry in the draft.
Week 14 – New York Jets
The remainder of Buffalo’s must-win matchups takes place later on in the season. That isn’t much of a surprise considering the way their season ended in 2017. The Bills went 4-2 in the month of December which ultimately played a huge role in ending the drought. This season, the schedule sets up pretty favorably with three of their final four contests occurring in Orchard Park.
It includes a December 9th tilt against their archrivals from the Meadowlands. Will the weather cooperate for this one? It certainly didn’t last year as the Bills’ Week 14 clash with the Indianapolis Colts was played during an epic lake effect snowstorm that dumped nearly a foot of snow on the field over the course of the game. Those conditions ultimately favored the home team with LeSean McCoy‘s scamper in overtime giving the Bills a 13-7 win.
This is the final meeting of 2018 between these teams with them also battling in East Rutherford during week 10. What’s intriguing about both matchups is what to expect at quarterback. Will Josh Allen and Sam Darnold be calling the shots behind center during either game? And what will be the status of Jets head coach Todd Bowles who honestly overachieved in 2017 considering the makeup of his roster? What is a virtual certainty is that getting to 6-1 at home against the Jets since 2012 is a necessity for the Bills.
Week 15 – Detroit Lions
The Bills face the NFC North in 2018. You could make the argument it’s the deepest division in pro football. All four teams have fairly stable quarterback situations including the Lions. That’s fairly apparent considering they signed Matthew Stafford to a $135 million extension ahead of the 2017 season which was, at the time, the richest deal in NFL history. What could make this clash even more challenging is the fact the Lions could be in the thick of the NFC playoff discussion when they come to Orchard Park in week 15.
New Lions head coach Matt Patricia certainly knows how to craft effective defenses if his time with the Pats was any indication. He has a fairly talented roster at his disposal in Detroit, especially in the secondary. Last year, the Lions’ 19 interceptions were tied with eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles for fourth best in the league. Darius Slay figured most prominently at neutralizing opposing quarterbacks. His eight interceptions and 26 pass breakups both led the league.
Whoever’s taking the snaps for the Bills at this point in the season will have to be sound in their decision-making against a secondary full of ball-hawking players. Doing so will help the team continue a trend of success against Detroit. Though the teams have met just five times since 1997, the Bills are 4-1 in those games. It included a 14-12 win on November 14, 2010 that ended an eight-game losing streak to start Chan Gailey‘s first season as head coach.
Week 17 – Miami Dolphins
For the second straight season, both encounters with the Dolphins take place in the month of December. Last year’s success against their AFC East rivals in week 17, combined with the help the Bills got from Andy Dalton and the Bengals, spelled the end of the infamous playoff drought. In 2018, the chance to close the regular season out with a W is even more enhanced given they host the Fins this time around.
This is a make or break campaign for Adam Gase and Ryan Tannehill. Last year was essentially a lost cause when Tannehill tore his ACL in training camp and the team signed Jay Cutler as an emergency measure. But the pressure is on in 2018 given some impressive additions to the roster. The acquisition of Danny Amendola from the Patriots gives Tannehill a dynamic weapon in the slot. And don’t count out Frank Gore either. The 35-year-old ageless wonder is coming off a 961-yard campaign for the Colts in 2017. Rookie tight end Mike Gesicki was the star of the Combine and should make an immediate impact.
There’s room for huge improvement on the defensive side of the ball considering the Dolphins finished in the bottom quarter of the league in sacks, interceptions, and points allowed. Fortunately, they got one of the steals of the draft when Minkah Fitzpatrick fell into their laps at number 11. That move certainly upgrades a secondary that struggled to consistently force mistakes out of opposing quarterbacks. Will Fitzpatrick, Reshad Jones, and company be trying to do against Allen in the regular season finale? That’s a story that will ostensibly begin playing itself out in roughly a month’s time.
