The smoke has cleared after a crazy divisional round weekend. The New England Patriots took care of business against the Tennessee Titans, while the Jacksonville Jaguars pulled off a thrilling upset against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jacksonville has pulled victory out of two close games, and are one win away from the first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. New England, meanwhile, is in their seventh straight AFC Championship Game and are looking for their third Super Bowl appearance in four years. Let’s see who has the advantage for the Patriots against the Jaguars AFC Championship.
AFC Championship New England Patriots Scheme – Running To Glory
When the Patriots Throw
This is the ultimate matchup of strength versus strength. Quarterback Tom Brady and the New England Patriots offense once again boast one of the best passing offenses in the league. The Patriots have great passing weapons at wide receiver, tight end, and running back. All three position groupings can control a game and are as healthy as they have been all season. When this unit is clicking on all cylinders, it’s hard to stop.
If any defense has the personnel to slow the Pats offense, it’s the Jaguars defense. Defensive lineman Calais Campbell leads the team with 14.5 sacks, but he’s far from the only good player in the front seven. Jacksonville boasted an astonishing four different players who recorded eight or more sacks on the season. Focusing on stopping any one player is troublesome, as so many guys can make a play at any given time.
Jacksonville boasts one of the best cornerback duos in the league with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Jacksonville ended the season ranked second in points allowed and first in passing yards allowed in large part due to this duo. However, don’t expect those two to make much of an impact on the game.
Jacksonville’s duo will likely eliminate wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan, but the Patriots don’t need them in the passing game. Between tight end Rob Gronkowski and running backs Dion Lewis, James White, and (most likely) Rex Burkhead, New England’s receivers can sometimes be an afterthought.
Last week, Cooks and Hogan accounted for just four of Brady’s 31 completions. The rest were divided between slot receiver Danny Amendola, Gronkowski and the running backs. Expect a similar gameplan this time out. Per Football Outsiders, the Jaguars were ranked just 20th in the league against opposing tight ends and 15th against running backs. Cooks and Hogan might not put up big numbers, but New England should still be able to exploit these matchups to move the ball through the air.
When the Patriots Run
This game should feature a lot of Dion Lewis. As great as the Jaguars defense is, they struggle against the run. Jacksonville finished its season ranked a surprisingly low 21st in rushing yards allowed. The Jaguars have improved ever since acquiring Marcell Dareus, but it’s still not their strength.
The Patriots, on the other hand, have their best running attack in recent memory. Lewis has established himself as a true lead back, combining strength to run between the tackles and the speed to break big gains on the outside. As long as he’s healthy, the Patriots run game will thrive.
Lewis should be getting some help in the backfield. Running back Rex Burkhead is likely to make his return, and he should make a huge impact. In his first season in New England, Burkhead has found a nose for the endzone, recording five touchdowns on the ground and three through the air. These numbers get more impressive when considering he only played in 10 games all season. Having him healthy can give the Patriots a dynamic one-two punch in the backfield. The Patriots should have their way in the running game next Sunday.
When the Jaguars Run
This should be an absolutely fascinating matchup. Rookie running back Leonard Fournette has established himself as one of the better running backs in the league. He’s a minor threat in the passing game, but he’s best when running physically between the tackles. The Steelers had no answer for him, and his three touchdowns were a big reason for the upset.
The Patriots run defense has been a problem throughout the year, but has tightened up in recent weeks. The return of linebacker Kyle Van Noy and the addition of James Harrison has done wonders. Harrison showed in the regular season finale that he still had something left in the tank, and Van Noy’s presence makes the Patriots defense much more formidable.
With the defense fully healthy in the AFC Divisional Round, the Patriots completely eliminated the Titans running game. Running back Derrick Henry was held to just 28 yards on 12 carries, with his longest run being just four yards. Part of that was also due to the Patriots constantly playing seven or eight men in the box.
Expect the Patriots to sell out once again to stop the run and dare Jacksonville to win in the passing game. The Patriots should win the run game matchup if they do everything they can to stop it. This likely won’t come back to haunt them because…
When the Jaguars Throw
Blake Bortles is the quarterback, does anything else really need to be said? While he’s improved from his first three years, he’s still not particularly good. Bortles is prone to turnovers and has terrible accuracy issues. He made some big throws while in the midst of putting up 45 on the Steelers, but don’t expect a repeat.
The Patriots pass defense has only gotten better as the season progressed. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore has transformed from a defensive liability to one of the best corners in the league. In last week’s matchup against the Titans, Gilmore didn’t allow a single catch on four targets. Devin McCourty is still one of the best free safeties in the league, and Patrick Chung has had a great year covering tight ends. Cornerback Malcolm Butler has been hot and cold all season, but Bortles likely isn’t good enough to consistently exploit him in coverage.
The pass rush has come alive of late. Against the Titans, the Patriots recorded a postseason franchise-record eight sacks. Trey Flowers is a great pass rusher, and Marquis Flowers has come out of nowhere to post 4.5 sacks in the last three games. This is weakness against strength, and the Patriots should win this matchup handily.
Summary/Prediction
This game should be more competitive than the Titans game, but the Patriots still should prevail. On offense, look for the running backs to be utilized in the running and passing game, with the wide receivers being something of an afterthought. On defense, expect the defense to sell out to stop the run and dare Bortles to beat them through the air. Basically, it will be a very similar gameplan to the Titans game. The Jaguars are a better unit than Tennessee, but the result will be the same. The Patriots will win this game, 27-13.
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