The New Orleans Saints are 1-3 this season despite having a top five offense. The predominant reason for their dismal record is their 31st-ranked defense. They entered the 2016 season as potentially the worst defense in the league and since then, have lost many of their top defensive players to injuries. Every time we hear the phrase “things can’t get any worse for the Saints”, they do. This season, the defense has allowed an average of 422.8 yards per game and 32.5 points per game. They rank 28th in pass defense and 25th in run defense and are dead last in scoring defense. But all is not lost for the New Orleans Saints Yet. There are several reasons why we should remain optimistic.
Why We Should Remain Optimistic about a Dismal New Orleans Saints Defense
The Saints Play in Arguably the Worst Division in the NFL
A 1-3 start for the New Orleans Saints does not dismiss their chances of seeing the playoffs this season given that they play in the NFC South, a division that is considered to be in the bottom three. In fact, many football analysts would rank the South dead last in the NFL.
The NFC South is an odd division in itself. Since 2002, it has had some dominant teams. In particular, the Carolina Panthers in 2015 went 15-1 and made it to the Superbowl, and the Saints in 2009 went 13-3 and won the Superbowl. In 2014 however, the divisional champion won with a record of 7-8-1.
Heading into Week Five, there was a three-way tie for second place in the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Panthers, and the Saints all had (1-3) records, while the Atlanta Falcons sat on top with a (3-1) record. Atlanta leading the division should not scare any team, given that their (5-0) start last season was followed by eight losses in their next eleven games. It is still any team’s game in the South.
The playoffs are still very much attainable because the Saints are fortunate enough to play within the NFC South. But an open contest for divisional champions will not be enough for a team that is destined to lose miserably in the first round. There needs to be hope within the defense itself that the Saints can up their game over the next twelve weeks to step into that number one spot.
The Bye Week was Timed Perfectly for New Orleans
Any optimism that may have existed for the Saints heading into the 2016 season has been tarnished by continuous defensive struggles and an overwhelming number of injuries. An early bye week for a struggling, injury-laden Saints team is exactly what they needed as they wait for many of their primary players to return.
The loss of number one cornerback Delvin Breaux to a broken fibula in the season opener was probably the biggest blow to the Saints defense this year. Playing in only his second season, his team believes him to be a pro-bowl-caliber player that can win any matchup. Many consider him a shutdown corner which is a very rare find in today’s NFL. Breaux had the confidence of his team and losing him hurt the entire defense as a whole. He is expected to return in a couple of weeks. A healthy Breaux back in the Saints lineup will allow placement of the rest of the cornerback depth into more suitable roles.
The bye week also provided a buffer for veteran linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and rookie defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. Ellerbe missed the first month with a quad injury. He is expected to make his season debut in week six. Having Ellerbe back in the lineup and healthy will give the Saints more options at linebacker. Rankins is currently on the injured reserve with a broken fibula. He is expected to return around week nine. However, the first-round draft pick has missed significant time to date and isn’t expected to be highly productive to start. What we can expect, is that he will be able to take some of the weight off defensive tackle Nick Fairley and create more interior pressure.
Other injuries which have hurt the Saints defense this season include Hau’oli Kikaha and P.J. Williams, who are out for the season. Although the early bye week will not offer any advantages for those young defenders, it will provide recovery time for both safety, Kenny Vaccaro who missed weeks three and four with an ankle injury and defensive tackle Tyeler Davison who also missed weeks three and four with shoulder and foot injuries. Having Davison and Vaccaro playing against Atlanta would have probably slowed the Falcons running game. Both players remain questionable and should return soon. Once the Saints start to see a return of their key players, things should begin to get better for their defense.
The 2016 Coaching Shake-Up Gives Us Reason to Hope
Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen brings a fresh new look to the New Orleans Saints this season, with his creativity and unique utilization of players. The two main obstacles to the Saints defense this season have been hurdling injuries and developing consistency. Eight of eleven starters have missed at least one game this year so far, but the coaching team in New Orleans cannot use this as an excuse for having the league’s worst-ranked scoring defense. They can only work with what they have from week-to-week by finding creative ways of shifting players around to deal with the mounting injuries. Once the lineup stabilizes, the coaching staff will be able to develop their players into more fitting roles.
The Saints have shown at various times throughout the season that they do have a battle in them. Holding the New York Giants to 16 points and no offensive touchdowns in week two were one of these moments. In week four against the San Diego Chargers, the Saints played the best seven minutes they have played this year, which comprised of three takeaways, two sacks, and 35-34 comebacks in just six plays. The remaining game time this season has been dismal. It is clear that the Saints need more consistency.
The Saints will be working to develop many of their key players over the coming weeks. This will include their young players like Breaux once he returns, linebacker Stephone Anthony, cornerback Ken Crawley, safety Vonn Bell and defensive tackle David Onyemata. While they are still finding their groove, their defense is improving week over week. Consistency will depend on the Saints ability to manage their injuries and develop their young players.
The Nick Fairley Factor
Nick Fairley, who was a first-round draft pick in 2011 and joined the Saints in March is the hottest name trending for the New Orleans Saints defense. He has had a tremendous impact as an interior defensive lineman so far this year. Pro Football Focus ranked him 87.3 vs. the Chargers in week four. He is upping his game every week, and the outlook moving forward is only positive for Fairley.
In his last two games, Fairley has produced ten tackles (3 for loss) and eight quarterback hits. He also registered 1.5 sacks in both games. Because of these two performances, Fairley could have a career year. Just four games in, he is on pace to make 64 tackles, 12 sacks and 12 tackles for loss. His previous career high was 35 tackles, 6 sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Fairley has historically underperformed with the Detroit Lions and the former St. Louis Rams, but he has rarely played a two-game series as productive as he was in weeks three and four with the Saints.
There is good reason to remain optimistic about Fairley moving forward. A decrease in his snap count from week one (48 snaps) and two (58 snaps) to weeks three and four where he averaged only 40 snaps created a more effective player on the field. If the Saints can continue to keep his snap count around 40 per game, we can expect more of the same type of play from him going forward. Developing David Onyemata into the game more, along with the return of Sheldon Rankins in the next couple of weeks should help keep his snap count down.
Although the New Orleans Saints defense has given up some big numbers this season, we can stay optimistic for now. The stars are aligned heading into week six. If the Saints can use the tools given to them on the defensive side of the ball, they still have a chance to tip the scales on the standings scoreboard over the next twelve weeks.
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