The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a tough loss to the Houston Texans. The Chiefs failed to get anything going on offense and protected the ball poorly. This week they are hoping to bounce back when they take on the New York Jets in Arrowhead. It’s their most difficult matchup yet, but if they can execute in a few key areas, they’ll come away with the win.
Kansas City Chiefs Week Three Keys to Victory
Keep Forte in Check
Matt Forte has apparently found the fountain of youth. He currently has the second most rushing yards in football with 196. He is also always a threat to catch passes out of the backfield. If Kansas City is going to have any hope of winning on Sunday, Matt Forte needs to be priority number one. The Chiefs, however, have defended the run very poorly this year allowing an average of 101 yards a game.
Part of this is due to poor tackling. Time and time again we’ve seen the first defender miss the tackle and watch what should have been a one-yard rush turn into a seven. With a shifty back such as Forte, it will be imperative that they wrap him up quickly and make sure he doesn’t get into open field. If Kansas City can take away the run game, they will force the inconsistent Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat them with his arm.
Negate the Pass Rush
The New York Jets front seven are about as fast and disruptive as one can get. Their defensive line has racked up the fourth most sacks with seven thus far. With the likes of Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson, the Chiefs offensive line is going to be outmatched. We saw the line struggled to protect the quarterback against Houston last week, and it will be a similar problem this week.
However, there are other ways to negate the pass rush. We saw Cincinnati handle it by trying to get the ball out of Andy Dalton’s hands quickly. They utilized out routes, screens, and hitches to move the ball down the field quickly. Kansas City did the same thing in the fourth quarter against the Chargers during their week one comeback. Expect lots of quick hitches in the middle of the field to Travis Kelce as well as screens to Spencer Ware and Tyreek Hill. While the New York secondary is a solid unit, they tend to play over the top of routes allowing these quick short routes to undercut the coverage.
I’m also expecting Alex Smith to have a big day on the ground. Scrambling to escape trouble or pick up a first down is one of the things Smith does best. If Alex Smith sees the blitz coming quick he will likely start looking for running legs to gain some yardage. If they can force New York to put a spy on Smith regularly during the game, it makes it that much easier for Kansas City’s receivers to find space. I think Smith will finish the day near 50 yards total from the ground.
Get an Early Lead
While Kansas City did complete a comeback in week one, it’s not something Chiefs’ fans should get used to seeing. The offensive play calling is far too conservative to put points on the board quickly. To come away with the victory Kansas City will need to establish a lead in the first two-quarters and hope to dominate time of possession in the second half to limit the Jets’ comeback chances.
New York also tends to have long and plodding scoring drives. Being the run first offense that they are, this should come as no surprise. Plus it looks like Brandon Marshall will be out for this game due to injury. Eric Decker is also injured but will likely play. With a banged-up wide receiving core and a quarterback that has troubles being consistently accurate, it will be hard to score quickly. If Kansas City can get ahead early and dominate the time of possession, it will force the Jets to lean more on the passing game and away from Matt Forte.
Conclusion
These two teams are built in a very similar fashion. Both rely on a strong pass rush and man to man coverage, while on offense’s point of emphasis is the running game. I expect a very close game this weekend as well as a low score. Kansas City will need to play mistake-free football while executing in these areas if they want to have a chance of winning.
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