Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche begin the Western Conference Final after navigating very different roads to reach the NHL’s final four. Colorado enters as the Presidents’ Trophy winner and the Western Conference favourite. Meanwhile, Vegas arrives after surviving two difficult playoff series and improving as each round progressed.
NHL Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche Game 1
Series: Tied 0-0
Time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 6:00 p.m. Mountain Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: ESPN | Canada TV: SN, SN+, CBC, TVAS
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Setting the Stage
Credit Image: © Spencer Lee/ZUMA Press Wire
The Western Conference Final features arguably the two most complete teams remaining in the conference. Colorado enters with an 8-1 playoff record after dispatching the Los Angeles Kings and Minnesota Wild. Vegas arrives at 8-4 after surviving physical series against Utah and Anaheim.
However, the paths taken by each club may become a storyline of their own. The Avalanche have dominated opponents throughout the postseason. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights have repeatedly found ways to get stronger as series progress. Vegas closed out both previous opponents by winning the final two games.
Furthermore, both teams possess elite star power. Nathan MacKinnon enters on a six-game goal streak. Meanwhile, Mitch Marner leads all playoff scorers with 18 points. Every shift feels capable of swinging momentum in this matchup.
Vegas Golden Knights Storylines
Don’t tell Toronto Maple Leaf fans, but Mitch Marner’s first season in Vegas continues to exceed even the highest expectations. The winger leads the Stanley Cup Playoffs with 18 points and enters the Conference Final after helping close out both Utah and Anaheim with dominant performances in Games 5 and 6.
Vegas goal!Scored by Mitch Marner with 18:58 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by William Karlsson and Shea Theodore.Anaheim: 0Vegas: 1#VGKvsANA #FlyTogether #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-15T01:59:57.555543Z
Meanwhile, Jack Eichel remains the engine driving Vegas offensively. His 13 assists rank among the playoff leaders, and his ability to dictate pace through the neutral zone presents a difficult challenge for Colorado’s aggressive defence.
The biggest question surrounds Mark Stone. The captain has not played since Game 3 against Anaheim and remains day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Vegas proved it could survive without him against the Ducks, but Colorado presents a far more dangerous test.
Additionally, Pavel Dorofeyev continues emerging as one of the playoffs’ most important secondary scorers. His eight goals trail only a handful of players league-wide and have provided critical offensive support behind Vegas’ stars.
Colorado Avalanche Storylines
Everything starts with MacKinnon. The Avalanche superstar has seven goals and 13 points in nine playoff games while continuing to drive one of the NHL’s most dangerous transition attacks.
However, Colorado’s depth may be the most impressive story entering Game 1. The Avalanche have received goals from 17 different players during the playoffs, highlighting the balanced attack that helped them earn the Presidents’ Trophy during the regular season.
Colorado goal!Scored by Brett Kulak with 16:08 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by Martin Necas and Parker Kelly.Colorado: 4Minnesota: 3#MINvsCOL #GoAvsGo #mnwild
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-14T03:16:59.217725Z
Meanwhile, health remains the primary concern. Cale Makar missed practice Tuesday and enters Game 1 as a potential game-time decision. Although the expectation remains that he will play, any limitation to one of hockey’s best defencemen would significantly impact Colorado’s chances.
Furthermore, the Avalanche continue receiving major contributions from throughout the lineup. Martin Necas, Brock Nelson, Gabriel Landeskog, and Nazem Kadri all create matchup problems that make Colorado difficult to defend for a full 60 minutes.
NHL Predictions and The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
MoneyPuck gives Colorado a 60 percent chance to win Game 1. HockeyStats projects a similar outcome, giving the Avalanche a 57 percent edge and projecting a 3.3-2.9 scoring advantage. The betting market agrees, installing Colorado as a significant home favourite near -190.
However, Vegas continues to outperform expectations as each series progresses. The Golden Knights have demonstrated an ability to adjust throughout playoff rounds and enter the Conference Final with considerable confidence after winning four straight closeout games across their first two series.
Ultimately, the model favours Colorado, but not by an overwhelming margin.
NHL Prediction
Colorado deserves to be favoured entering Game 1. The Avalanche earned the Presidents’ Trophy, possess home-ice advantage, and have looked dominant throughout the postseason. Their combination of speed, depth, and elite talent creates problems for every opponent.
However, Vegas may be the first team capable of matching Colorado’s playoff experience and depth. Marner and Eichel are playing exceptional hockey, while Carter Hart has quietly posted a .917 save percentage through 12 playoff games.
Still, Game 1 often belongs to the rested home team. Colorado enters with extra recovery time, a raucous Ball Arena crowd, and MacKinnon playing arguably the best hockey of anyone not named Mitch Marner.
Expect a fast, high-skill game that previews what should be an outstanding series.
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche win 4-3
Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction Record: 9-3
Prop Bets of the Night
Mitch Marner over 1.5 (+180) points remains difficult to ignore. The playoff scoring leader has 18 points in 12 games and continues driving Vegas’ offence regardless of opponent. Until sportsbooks fully adjust, backing Marner’s production remains a logical approach.
Meanwhile, Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal (-105) carries plenty of appeal. The Avalanche star enters Game 1 riding a six-game goal streak and continues generating chances at an elite rate. Colorado’s top line should see plenty of offensive-zone opportunities at home.
Additionally, Jack Eichel over 0.5 assists (-155) deserves consideration. His 13 assists through 12 playoff games illustrate how frequently he creates offence for teammates, and Vegas will need that playmaking against Colorado’s deep defensive group.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Record: 18-13 (+4.27 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
Main Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy – Imagn Images
