Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. Our featured game of this edition is the Buffalo Sabres hosting the Montreal Canadiens. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
NHL Predictions: Canadiens vs Sabres
Series: Canadiens 2-2 Sabres
How to Watch: Sportsnet+, CBC, TVA Sports, TNT, truTV, HBO Max
Time: 7 pm EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)
After getting dominated by the Canadiens in Games 2 and 3, the Sabres bounced back to beat the Canadiens in Montreal 3-2 in Game 4. The Sabres scored first for the third time in the series; however, the Habs quickly answered with two of their own to have a 2-1 lead after the first period.
The Sabres tied the game on the most bizarre goal of the playoffs, as the puck hit the stanchion on a Tage Thompson dump-in, which redirected right into Jakub Dobes and into the net. Zach Benson scored on the power play in the third, and the Canadiens couldn’t find a way to beat Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen as the Sabres went on to take home ice back from the Canadiens.
Now heading back home, the Sabres will look to put the Canadiens on the brink in front of their home crowd, while the Canadiens will look to steal another one on the road and head back to Montreal with the lead.
The Canadiens Story
Despite the loss for the Canadiens in Game 4, they have been the better team the entire series. Although the series is currently tied, the Canadiens have outscored the Sabres 15-10 through four games, and they’re now getting offence from Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, who were cold throughout the majority of the playoffs. This is extremely good news for the Canadiens, as they’ve been able to win games all through the playoffs without some of their top scorers producing.
Their depth, however, has been outstanding. Alex Newhook has led the way in this series, scoring five goals so far in four games and has brought the energy for the Canadiens every single game. They’ll want him to bring that same energy to try to steal a game on the road tonight in Buffalo.
Side note for the Canadiens, Dobes has yet to lose two games in a row during the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He’s 4-0 with a 1.49 goals-against average and a .946 save percentage. He’ll look to continue this outstanding play tonight to secure the win for the Habs.
The Sabres Story
The Sabres had a solid bounce-back game after being pummelled in the two prior games by the Canadiens. The Sabres were outscored 11-3 in Games 2 and 3, and they desperately needed a wake-up call to try to get back in this series. They elected to make changes at each position, and it paid dividends. Luukkonen was outstanding in Game 4, making 29 saves and being announced as the first star of the game. Expect him to get the start for the Sabres again tonight.
Rookie Konsta Helenius also had a solid game, recording three shots in 12:53 minutes of ice time. Luke Schenn also got the call in place of Logan Stanley. Schenn only saw 7:04 of ice time and had two blocked shots.
One major story for the Sabres is their power play. Five of the club’s 10 goals in the series have come with the man advantage, and they’re now scoring at a 31.25% rate with the man advantage in this series. This is a huge improvement after scoring just one power play goal in 24 opportunities against the Boston Bruins. In a series where they’re haven’t performed as well as they’re capable of, it’s been a bright spot for the Sabres. If they can keep capitalizing on their power play opportunities, they have a chance to take this series.
Prediction and Best Bets
The Sabres are heading home with a massive win in Montreal on the back of their starter, Luukkonen. They’ll now try to do something no one has been able to do in the postseason, and that’s defeat the Canadiens in back-to-back games. We don’t believe that streak ends tonight, as we believe Dobes continues his winning ways coming off a loss and helps the Canadiens get the job done tonight.
Prediction: Canadiens win 4-2
Best Bets
For our best bets on the Canadiens side, we like Alex Newhook to get at least a point in this game. With the odds placed at (+132) and Newhook scoring in each of the last three games, we feel a point is a safe way to go tonight.
On the Buffalo side of things, we like Josh Doan to record at least one point (-115). Doan has at least a point in every game this series. We expect that streak to carry on tonight.
Main Photo: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
