Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of NHL Predictions, the Anaheim Ducks return home facing elimination against the Vegas Golden Knights after a narrow overtime loss in Game 5 pushed Vegas within one win of the Western Conference Final.
NHL Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks Game 6
Series: Vegas leads 3-2
Time: 9:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 6:30 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max | Canada TV: SN, SN+, SN360, TVAS
Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
Setting the Stage
Game 5 somehow strengthened Anaheim’s credibility despite the result. The Ducks pushed Vegas for long stretches, outshot the Golden Knights 17-6 during the second period, erased another late deficit, and nearly stole home-ice advantage back before Pavel Dorofeyev ended the game in overtime.
Vegas goal!Scored by Pavel Dorofeyev with 15:50 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by Jack Eichel.Vegas: 3Anaheim: 2#ANAvsVGK #ForgedInGold #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T04:54:01.888373Z
However, Vegas once again showed why playoff experience still matters. The Golden Knights remained composed after Anaheim tied the game late, simplified overtime quickly, and capitalized on one defensive breakdown. That veteran calm has quietly become one of the biggest differences in the series.
Additionally, Vegas will be without Brayden McNabb after the veteran defenceman received a one-game suspension for his Game 5 hit on Ryan Poehling. McNabb exited after only three minutes Tuesday night, but his absence still removes one of the Golden Knights’ most physical and trusted defensive pieces entering an elimination opportunity. Meanwhile, Poehling also appears unlikely to play after suffering an upper-body injury on the hit. His absence would further test Anaheim’s forward depth in a game where matchup flexibility already becomes critical.
Meanwhile, Anaheim now faces its first elimination game of the postseason. Yet the Ducks hardly look overwhelmed. If anything, their young core continues improving deeper into the series.
Vegas Golden Knights Storylines
Vegas enters Game 6 one win away from another Western Conference Final appearance, and the Golden Knights continue getting contributions throughout the lineup. Dorofeyev scored twice in Game 5, while Jack Eichel controlled several key overtime sequences and finished with two assists.
Meanwhile, Mitch Marner somehow finished without a point and Vegas still won. That may be the most concerning development for Anaheim entering Thursday night. Marner still drove transition play effectively throughout Game 5 and continues producing elite underlying numbers this postseason.
Additionally, Shea Theodore remains enormously important defensively. Vegas has repeatedly settled games down whenever Theodore controls possession from the back end. That presence becomes especially valuable in elimination environments.
(Credit Image: © Brian Mcwalters/Cal Sport Media)
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
Anaheim no longer needs to prove it belongs in this series. The Ducks have consistently matched Vegas territorially throughout much of Round 2. Now the question becomes whether this young core can survive elimination against one of the NHL’s most experienced playoff teams.
Beckett Sennecke continues emerging as one of the breakout stories of the postseason. The rookie has now scored in four straight games and continues attacking Vegas defenders confidently off the rush. Meanwhile, Cutter Gauthier’s playoff game is evolving rapidly. His willingness to attack the interior offensively has changed Anaheim’s power-play structure over the past two games.
Additionally, Olen Zellweger suddenly looks like an important piece of this matchup. After sitting as a healthy scratch for Anaheim’s first nine playoff games, the 22-year-old scored the dramatic tying goal late in Game 5, brings noticeable mobility to the Ducks’ lineup, and has perhaps been the best player on the ice over the last two games.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Olen Zellweger with 03:05 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Cutter Gauthier and Mason McTavish.Vegas: 2Anaheim: 2#ANAvsVGK #ForgedInGold #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T04:23:59.191149Z
NHL Predictions and The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
MoneyPuck gives Vegas approximately a 54 percent edge entering Game 6, while HockeyStats projects the Golden Knights similarly near 54 percent with a projected 3.5-3.2 scoring edge. Market odds also reflect an extremely tight matchup, with Vegas holding only a slight road favourite status entering Thursday night.
However, the in-house model continues weighing Anaheim’s improving territorial play and emerging young-core production heavily. The Ducks have consistently generated quality chances throughout this series, even while trailing 3-2 overall.
That leaves this NHL Prediction projecting far closer than a typical elimination game.
NHL Prediction
Elimination games often become emotionally chaotic, especially for younger teams. However, Anaheim has looked surprisingly composed throughout most of this series, even after difficult losses. The Ducks continue generating enough offence to threaten Vegas consistently, and Honda Center should provide a major emotional lift Thursday night.
Furthermore, it still feels like Leo Carlsson has another level offensively waiting somewhere in this series. Anaheim has pushed Vegas repeatedly despite its young star centre not fully taking over a game yet.
Still, Vegas remains incredibly dangerous in leverage moments. The Golden Knights continue punishing mistakes quickly, and their veteran composure has repeatedly surfaced late in games throughout this series.
Expect another tight game. Expect another emotional swing late. This time, Anaheim finally survives it.
Prediction: Ducks win 4-3 (Model Probability: ~49%)
Stanley Cup Playoffs NHL Predictions Record: 9-2
Prop Bets of the Night
Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots on goal (+145) remains difficult to move away from after another aggressive offensive performance in Game 5. His role has expanded significantly over the past several games, particularly around the net front and inside the offensive zone. Anaheim increasingly relies on him to create interior pressure against Vegas’ defensive structure.
Meanwhile, Mitch Marner over 1.5 points (+180) props immediately regain value after the rare zero-point outing Tuesday night. Marner still drove transition effectively throughout Game 5 and remains one of the most productive playoff forwards in the league. Betting against sustained offensive involvement from him twice in a row feels dangerous.
Additionally, Mason McTavish anytime point (+165) props continue looking quietly appealing. His offensive confidence and usage continue climbing, and Anaheim’s coaching staff clearly trusts him more in leverage situations every game.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Record: 17-11 (+4.47 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
Main Photo Credit: Alex Gallardo-Imagn Images
