Welcome back to another Stanley Cup Playoffs of NHL Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, the Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights meet for a pivotal Game 5 of their Western Conference Second-Round series. The series is tied 2-2 after Anaheim earned a dramatic 4-3 victory in Game 4. Now, the series shifts back to Las Vegas, Nevada, with momentum suddenly leaning toward the Ducks.
NHL Predictions Presents Stanley Cup Playoffs Anaheim Ducks vs Vegas Golden Knights
Series: Tied 2-2
Time: 9:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 6:30 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: ESPN, ESPN+ | Canada TV: SN, SN360, SN+, TVAS, CBC
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Setting the Stage
Anaheim entered the postseason as a dangerous offensive team. However, the Ducks are now proving they can also win structured playoff hockey. Meanwhile, Vegas still possesses elite top-end talent led by Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel. However, the Golden Knights suddenly look far less comfortable than they did earlier in the series.
Credit Image: © Alex Cave/ZUMA Press Wire
Game 4 may have altered the direction of this series. Anaheim finally solved the Vegas penalty kill after opening the series 0-for-11 with the man advantage. Furthermore, the Ducks continue receiving major contributions from throughout the lineup. Beckett Sennecke, Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish, Olen Zellweger, Mikael Granlund, and Jackson LaCombe are all impacting games in different ways.
Meanwhile, Vegas still controls long stretches territorially. The Golden Knights remain one of the NHL’s strongest transition teams, especially with Marner and Eichel driving offence. However, the Mark Stone injury situation continues hovering over the series. Vegas looks less connected defensively when Stone is limited. Anaheim has increasingly attacked the middle of the ice because of it.
This series no longer feels like a young team surviving playoff pressure. Instead, the Ducks are beginning to dictate portions of the matchup.
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
The Ducks are evolving in real time. Earlier in the season, Anaheim relied heavily on rush offence and chaos. However, this playoff run is showing a far more mature version of the team.
Gauthier delivered three assists in Game 4 after emphasizing more interior and net-front play. Meanwhile, Sennecke continues emerging as one of the breakout players of the postseason. His ability to create offence without sheltered deployment gives Anaheim dangerous lineup flexibility.
Power play goal for Anaheim!Scored by Alex Killorn with 02:02 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Cutter Gauthier and Beckett Sennecke.Anaheim: 3Vegas: 2#VGKvsANA #FlyTogether #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-11T03:35:00.357057Z
Additionally, Leo Carlsson continues looking like a future playoff superstar. The young centre consistently creates controlled entries and offensive-zone possession against difficult matchups. LaCombe has also become one of Anaheim’s most important players from the back end. His puck movement continues helping the Ducks escape Vegas forecheck pressure.
Perhaps most importantly, Lukas Dostal stabilized after a difficult Game 3. Anaheim now looks comfortable playing both high-event and low-event playoff hockey. That versatility changes the ceiling of this roster.
Vegas Golden Knights Storylines
Vegas still enters Game 5 with home ice and the more proven playoff core. Marner continues driving offence at an elite level this postseason, while Eichel remains the engine of Vegas’ transition attack. When the Golden Knights establish controlled entries early, they can still overwhelm opponents in waves.
However, the deeper portions of the lineup have become more vulnerable as the series progresses. Anaheim’s depth forwards are increasingly winning shifts territorially, especially below the goal line and around the slot area. That has forced Vegas into longer defensive-zone sequences than it prefers.
Additionally, the Golden Knights need a cleaner defensive structure around their own net. Anaheim generated far more interior offence in Game 4, particularly through Gauthier and McTavish. Vegas survived on special teams discipline early in the series. That advantage suddenly feels less secure.
Vegas goal!Scored by Tomas Hertl with 01:04 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel.Anaheim: 4Vegas: 3#VGKvsANA #FlyTogether #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-11T04:41:26.510756Z
The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
MoneyPuck gives Vegas approximately a 62 percent edge entering Game 5, while HockeyStats projects the Golden Knights closer to 60 percent. Market odds also continue favouring Vegas on home ice despite Anaheim’s Game 4 victory. However, the in-house model weighs Anaheim’s improving defensive structure and depth production more aggressively after the Ducks adjusted successfully throughout the series.
That leaves this matchup closer than the public projections initially suggest. Anaheim increasingly looks capable of matching Vegas in both structured and high-event playoff environments.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction
Game 5 feels like the moment Vegas reasserts some control over the series. Anaheim responded impressively in Game 4 and continues adapting faster than expected throughout this playoff run. However, returning to T-Mobile Arena changes the pressure and pace of the matchup significantly.
Furthermore, the Golden Knights still possess the two most dangerous offensive drivers in the series with Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel. Vegas looked far more connected structurally at home earlier in the series, especially through transition and defensive-zone support. Expect Bruce Cassidy’s group to tighten coverage around Anaheim’s young skill players after the Ducks generated far too much interior offence in Game 4.
Anaheim should remain competitive throughout the night. However, this feels like a game where Vegas’ playoff experience and home-ice structure finally become the difference again.
Prediction: Golden Knights win 4-2 (Model Probability: ~57%)
Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction Record: 8-2
Prop Bets of the Night
Mitch Marner recording a point still feels like one of the safest plays on the board. Anaheim has improved structurally against Vegas overall, but Marner continues producing offence regardless of game environment. His playoff transition game remains elite, and Vegas still funnels much of its offensive creation through him.
Meanwhile, Cutter Gauthier over shots deserves strong consideration again. His role changed noticeably in Game 4 as Anaheim emphasized more interior offence and net-front movement on the power play. That adjustment created several dangerous scoring opportunities. If the Ducks continue leaning into that approach, Gauthier should generate volume again.
Additionally, Mason McTavish point props may quietly hold strong value entering Game 5. His usage and offensive involvement continue climbing while Vegas’ middle-six defensive structure looks increasingly vulnerable.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Record: 15-10 (+2.37 units)
Line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change before puck drop.
Main Photo Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
