Welcome back to another edition of Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, we shift to Game 4 of this second-round Western Conference matchup with the Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks, as Anaheim attempts to recover from its first true playoff collapse and avoid falling into a dangerous 3-1 series deficit.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks Game 4
Series: Vegas leads 2-1
Time: 9:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 6:30 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: ESPN | Canada TV: SN, SN360, TVAS, CBC
Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
Setting the Stage
Game 3 represented Anaheim’s worst performance of the postseason and perhaps its most important learning moment. The Ducks fell behind 1:06 into the game and never recovered, eventually dropping a 6-2 decision after Vegas finally imposed its pace, structure, and special-teams advantage on the series. However, Joel Quenneville quickly dismissed the loss as a “throwaway game” afterward, framing it more as a correction than a collapse.
Meanwhile, the pressure now increases significantly for Anaheim. Falling behind 3-1 against an experienced Vegas roster would place enormous pressure on the Ducks heading back to Nevada for Game 5. Furthermore, the Golden Knights finally looked like themselves Friday night. Vegas controlled transition play, capitalized on Anaheim’s mistakes, and dominated special teams in a way it had not through the opening two games.
Vegas Golden Knights Storylines
Vegas finally found the version of itself that entered the playoffs as a Stanley Cup contender. Mitch Marner completely took over Game 3 with a natural hat trick and continues looking liberated offensively throughout this postseason run. Jack Eichel remains the engine driving Vegas through transition, while Shea Theodore’s early goal immediately shifted the energy inside Honda Center Friday night.
Vegas goal!Scored by Mitch Marner with 10:41 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Shea Theodore and Brett Howden.Anaheim: 0Vegas: 4#VGKvsANA #FlyTogether #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-09T03:11:04.584591Z
However, the biggest development may have been Vegas finally slowing Anaheim’s forecheck pressure. The Ducks repeatedly forced rushed exits during the first two games of the series, but the Golden Knights flipped that dynamic entirely in Game 3. Vegas generated cleaner breakouts, established offensive-zone possession earlier, and forced Anaheim into mistakes defending off the rush.
Meanwhile, Carter Hart continues providing calm, structured goaltending behind the Golden Knights’ improving defensive play. If Vegas replicates Friday’s puck management, the Ducks could spend another long night chasing the game.
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
Anaheim now faces its first real adversity test of the playoffs. The Ducks had controlled much of the series territorially entering Friday night, but Game 3 exposed several lingering concerns all at once. Lukas Dostal allowed another first-shot goal, his 13th of the season, and was eventually pulled after the opening period. Meanwhile, Anaheim’s power play fell to 0-for-11 in the series after going 8-for-16 in round one against Edmonton.
Credit Image: © Daniel Lea/Cal Sport Media)
Still, there are reasons for optimism entering Game 4. Beckett Sennecke and Chris Kreider helped Anaheim regain some life late Friday, and Quenneville made it clear the Ducks are already focused on responding rather than dwelling on the loss. Furthermore, Leo Carlsson continues driving Anaheim offensively despite Vegas adjusting defensively against him. The 21-year-old still generated some looks Friday and remains the focal point of Anaheim’s transition attack.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Beckett Sennecke with 13:30 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Alex Killorn and Mikael Granlund.Anaheim: 1Vegas: 5#VGKvsANA #FlyTogether #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-09T03:59:57.955480Z
Additionally, the possible return of captain Radko Gudas would provide both physicality and emotional stability to a young Ducks roster learning playoff hockey in real time.
The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
MoneyPuck gives Vegas approximately a 54 percent edge entering Game 4, while HockeyStats projects the Golden Knights closer to 57 percent. Market odds also continue leaning slightly toward Vegas after Friday’s dominant win. However, the in-house model still weighs Anaheim’s strong territorial control through the first two games heavily, particularly at five-on-five.
That leaves this matchup much closer than the most recent scoreline suggests. Anaheim still profiles as a dangerous home underdog capable of quickly resetting the tone of the series if it starts cleaner defensively.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction
Game 4 feels like the defining swing point of the series. Vegas finally dictated pace Friday night and looked every bit like the deeper, more experienced playoff team many expected entering Round 2. However, Anaheim has generally controlled more of this series overall than the 2-1 deficit suggests.
Furthermore, the Ducks now enter a desperation spot on home ice with a veteran coaching staff capable of stabilizing emotional swings quickly. Expect Anaheim to tighten defensively, shorten shifts, and simplify its puck management after the chaos of Game 3. If the Ducks avoid another disastrous opening sequence and finally convert on the power play, the complexion of this series could shift back immediately.
Expect a far tighter game Sunday night.
Prediction: Ducks win 3-2 (Model Probability: ~46%)
Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction Record: 7–2
Prop Bets of the Night
Leo Carlsson over 3.5 shots on goal (+110) remains difficult to move away from despite Friday’s miss at the higher 3.5 line. Carlsson still generated three shots in a difficult game environment and continues serving as the centrepiece of Anaheim’s offensive attack. With the line likely dropping back down, the value returns immediately in what should be a far tighter Game 4.
Meanwhile, Beckett Sennecke anytime point (+135) offers intriguing value after another confident performance Friday night. Sennecke scored in Game 3 and continues looking more comfortable every period this postseason. His speed and willingness to attack defenders off the rush have consistently created problems for Vegas’ depth pairings, especially once Anaheim establishes offensive-zone pressure.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Record: 14–9 (+2.02 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
Main Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
