Welcome back to another Stanley Cup Playoffs edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions, we shift to Game 3 of this second-round Western Conference matchup with the Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks, as the series heads to Anaheim tied after the Ducks imposed their style in Game 2.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks Game 3
Series: Tied 1-1
Time: 9:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 6:30 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max | Canada TV: SN, SN360, TVAS, SN+
Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
Setting the Stage
The series looks like it belongs to Anaheim right now. The Ducks controlled long stretches of both games in Las Vegas and deservedly walked away with a split after Wednesday’s 3-1 victory. Furthermore, Game 2 showed this team can now win differently. Anaheim spent much of Round 1 trading rush chances with Edmonton in chaotic track meets. However, against Vegas, the Ducks suddenly resemble a structured playoff team capable of suffocating opponents through pace, pressure, and defensive detail.
Credit Image: © Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire
Meanwhile, the Golden Knights still have not found consistent answers against Anaheim’s forecheck. Vegas managed only 22 shots in Game 2 and struggled generating sustained offensive-zone pressure. That becomes especially dangerous entering a road environment that should heavily favour Anaheim’s energy and speed. Nevertheless, Vegas remains experienced enough to respond quickly after uneven performances.
Vegas Golden Knights Storylines
Vegas enters Game 3 needing cleaner execution everywhere. The Golden Knights continue receiving strong production from their core players, with Jack Eichel sitting at 10 points in eight playoff games while Mitch Marner continues driving offence off transition. Brett Howden also remains one of the postseason’s biggest surprises after scoring in five of his last six games.
Power play goal for Vegas!Scored by Mark Stone with 00:06 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Jack Eichel and Shea Theodore.Vegas: 1Anaheim: 3#ANAvsVGK #ForgedInGold #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-07T04:33:58.075613Z
However, Vegas has struggled handling Anaheim’s pace below the goal line and through the neutral zone. The Ducks repeatedly forced rushed exits and prevented Vegas from establishing its usual layered offensive-zone structure. Furthermore, Anaheim’s defensive pressure turned several Golden Knights possessions into one-and-done sequences during Game 2.
Carter Hart still gives Vegas stability in goal with a .912 save percentage through eight playoff appearances. Still, the Golden Knights cannot spend another night defending wave after wave inside their own zone if they want to reclaim control of the series.
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
Anaheim suddenly looks far more mature than expected entering this playoff run. The Ducks defended aggressively, transitioned quickly, and frustrated Vegas for most of Game 2. Furthermore, Lukas Dostal delivered one of Anaheim’s cleanest goaltending performances of the postseason despite losing the shutout late.
Meanwhile, Leo Carlsson continues emerging as the centrepiece of this playoff breakout. The 21-year-old already has four postseason goals and recorded another four-shot performance Wednesday night. Troy Terry also looks increasingly dangerous alongside Carlsson and finally converted offensively with a primary assist in Game 2. Additionally, Jackson LaCombe remains one of the best stories of the playoffs with 10 points through eight games while driving possession from the backend.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Leo Carlsson with 13:24 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Troy Terry and Chris Kreider.Vegas: 0Anaheim: 2#ANAvsVGK #ForgedInGold #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-07T04:05:57.622485Z
However, Anaheim’s power play still needs work. The Ducks are now 0-for-9 in the series despite controlling territorial play. If that unit finally breaks through Friday night, Vegas could face serious trouble.
The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
MoneyPuck gives Vegas roughly a 53 percent edge entering Game 3, while HockeyStats projects the Golden Knights closer to 58 percent. Market odds also continue leaning slightly toward Vegas despite Anaheim controlling much of the series territorially through two games.
However, the in-house model continues narrowing the gap significantly because Anaheim has consistently dictated pace at five-on-five. The Ducks have pressured Vegas into rushed decisions, controlled transition play, and generated more dangerous offensive sequences overall. Once blended together, the model lands near a true coin flip with Vegas holding only a marginal edge.
That leaves meaningful value on Anaheim as a slight home underdog entering Game 3.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction
Vegas probably delivers a cleaner performance Friday night. The Golden Knights remain too experienced and talented to keep getting territorially overwhelmed for entire games. However, Anaheim currently looks faster, more connected, and more comfortable dictating this series stylistically.
Furthermore, Honda Center should provide another boost for a young Ducks roster growing more confident every period. Carlsson continues trending toward a legitimate superstar breakout, while Anaheim’s defensive structure suddenly looks sustainable instead of temporary. If the Ducks maintain their aggressive forecheck and finally cash in a power play opportunity, they should put Vegas in another difficult position.
Expect another tight playoff game with momentum swings throughout. Still, Anaheim’s speed and home energy feel like the difference.
Prediction: Ducks win 4-2 (Model Probability: ~49%)
Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction Record: 7–1
Prop Bets of the Night
Leo Carlsson over 3.5 shots on goal (+135) remains impossible to ignore right now. Carlsson has cleared the number in consecutive games and continues attacking Vegas defenders with confidence off the rush. Anaheim’s offensive structure increasingly flows directly through him every shift.
Meanwhile, Troy Terry to record a point (-160) still carries value entering Game 3. Terry finally broke through offensively Wednesday night and consistently generated dangerous sequences throughout both games in Las Vegas. If Anaheim sustains this level of offensive pressure at home, Terry should remain heavily involved somewhere on the scoresheet.
Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Record: 13–8 (+2.39 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
Main Photo Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
