Welcome back to NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, we shift to Game 6 of this first round Western Conference matchup as the Anaheim Ducks host the Edmonton Oilers, with Anaheim holding a 3-2 series lead and looking to book their ticket to Round 2.
Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions: Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks Game 6
Series: Anaheim leads 3-2
Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 7:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max, Victory+, KCOP-13 | Canada TV: CBC, SN, TVAS, SN+
Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
Setting the Stage
Game 6 shifts back to Anaheim with the Ducks holding a 3-2 series lead and another chance to close things out. However, Game 5 introduced a familiar playoff pattern. Edmonton responded with urgency and controlled the opening stretch, scoring three times in the first 10 minutes and never looking back.
Meanwhile, Anaheim now faces a different challenge. Closing a series is rarely clean, especially against a team with Edmonton’s experience. The Ducks dominated Games 3 and 4 at home, but Game 5 showed how quickly control can flip if they fail to match early intensity.
Furthermore, this game will likely hinge on the same variable again. If Anaheim can survive the initial push, they have consistently shown the ability to re-establish structure and dictate pace over the remaining minutes.
Edmonton Oilers Storylines
Edmonton finally looked like the version of themselves that carried them deep into recent postseasons. Leon Draisaitl drove the offence in Game 5 with two goals, while Connor McDavid controlled play and created chances throughout. When those two are dictating pace, Edmonton becomes extremely difficult to contain.
Power play goal for Edmonton!Scored by Leon Draisaitl with 09:36 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard.Edmonton: 4Anaheim: 1#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-29T03:45:00.085593Z
However, the more important shift came underneath the stars. The Oilers’ secondary lines held their own territorially, and their defensive structure stabilized after a chaotic stretch earlier in the series. That balance allowed them to extend their early lead rather than trade chances.
Meanwhile, Edmonton’s path remains clear. They must win the start again. When they dictate the first ten minutes, they force Anaheim into a reactive game script that has not suited the Ducks in this series.
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
Anaheim still controls the series, and importantly, they return home, where they took both games earlier in the series. The Ducks dictated play in Games 3 and 4 through depth scoring and sustained offensive zone pressure, and that formula remains intact.
However, Game 5 exposed a critical weakness. The Ducks were not prepared for Edmonton’s opening push, and the game was effectively decided before they settled in. That cannot be repeated here.
Meanwhile, Leo Carlsson continues to be one of the most reliable drivers in the series. His shot volume has remained consistent regardless of game flow, and his role has only expanded in key moments. Cutter Gauthier also remains heavily involved, even if his production dipped in the last game.
Power play goal for Anaheim!Scored by Alex Killorn with 11:34 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Mason McTavish and Cutter Gauthier.Edmonton: 3Anaheim: 1#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-29T03:37:57.801719Z
Furthermore, the goaltending decision looms. Lukas Dostal has carried the load, but Ville Husso provided stability in relief. Whether it is a change or a bounce-back, Anaheim needs a cleaner start in net. Signs point towards Dostal starting, but he must start on time in Game 6.
The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
The in-house model continues to favour Edmonton based on stronger finishing metrics and long-term offensive output. Meanwhile, MoneyPuck projects the Oilers at approximately 52 percent for Game 6. HockeyStats aligns with a slightly stronger Edmonton edge, placing the Oilers closer to 55 percent while projecting a modest scoring advantage. After removing market vig from the -130 range and blending all inputs, Edmonton lands between 53 and 55 percent. Fair odds project closer to -115 to -120, indicating a narrow but consistent edge.
Ultimately, the model suggests Edmonton remains the favourite on paper, but the margin continues to tighten when accounting for Anaheim’s performance at home and ability to dictate game flow.
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction
Game 6 presents a familiar tension between projection and performance. Edmonton carries the stronger underlying profile in this matchup, but Anaheim has repeatedly executed the more effective game plan on home ice.
However, Anaheim’s ability to absorb early pressure and re-establish structure has been the defining trait of this series. If they can avoid another slow start, their depth and sustained offensive pressure should tilt the game back in their favour.
Meanwhile, closing games introduces pressure, but Anaheim’s veteran additions and home environment help stabilize that moment. The Oilers will push early again, but the Ducks are better positioned to respond over a full 60 minutes.
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks win 4-3 (Model Probability: ~46%)
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction Record: 4-1
Prop Bets of the Night
Leo Carlsson over 3.5 shots (+140) remains one of the most reliable plays in this series. His usage continues to drive consistent shot volume, and even in games where Anaheim struggles early, his role ensures he generates opportunities. Until the number adjusts meaningfully, the trend remains playable.
Meanwhile, Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots (-125) presents a strong rebound angle. His underlying involvement has not changed despite a quieter Game 5, and his deployment alongside key offensive pieces should create enough volume to clear this number in a more balanced game script.
Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Record: 9–6 (+1.36 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Please bet responsibly.
Main photo: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
