Welcome to Last Word On Hockey’s 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics men’s ice hockey predictions. Each day, our writers look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at Team USA battling Team Canada in the gold medal matchup. Don’t forget to check out more Olympic Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the Olympics.
Winter Olympic Hockey Predictions USA vs Canada
Olympic record: Team Canada leads all-time matchup, 12-4-3
Time: 8:10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST), 5:10 a.m. Pacific
How to Watch: In Canada: SN, CBC, CBC Gem, TSN
In the United States: NBC, Peacock
It’s the last edition of our Olympic Hockey predictions, but it’s the matchup that we’ve all been waiting for. Many were hoping that Team USA would meet Team Canada in the Olympic men’s hockey final. Both teams overcame tough opponents in the knockout round to meet up in this epic final.
Canada has owned the rivalry in Olympic play, including Canada winning the 2002 Olympic final in Salt Lake City and the Four Nations Faceoff finale last season. However, Team USA did beat Canada in the group stage in 2022. That game was not contested with NHL players due to the lingering aftereffects of the COVID-19 panic.
There’s plenty of bad blood between the two countries and the ultimate prize in international hockey is at stake. Let’s take a look at the statistics and storylines going into the gold medal game in our Olympic hockey predictions.
The Team USA Story
Team USA comes into the championship game after a 6-2 drubbing of Slovakia in the semifinal. The Slovaks were playing like one of the best teams in the tournament, but the Americans blew the game wide open with another strong second period. New Jersey Devils star Jack Hughes scored twice in that period to put the game away.
Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck has been outstanding this entire tournament. The defending Hart Trophy and Vezina Trophy winner has only allowed five goals in four games so far this tournament. He’ll have to tap into the MVP form if the Americans want to win their first gold medal since the Miracle on Ice.
Buffalo Sabres forward Tage Thompson appears to be good to go after blocking a shot in the second period for Team USA. Minnesota Wild defender Quinn Hughes has the team’s lead in assists (6) and points (7) so far this tournament.
The Team Canada Story
Canada has been the comeback kings in the knockout phase. The Canadians have overcome both Czechia and Finland after falling behind to them in the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively. Somehow, Canada was able find a way and get into the gold medal game. Colorado Avalanche superstar Nathan MacKinnon got the winning tally in a 3-2 win over Finland.
St Louis Blues netminder Jordan Binnington will likely be called upon once again to beat the Americans a major tournament final. He backstopped Canada to the victory over Team USA in the Four Nations Faceoff final.
The hockey world is awaiting the status of Pittsburgh Penguins great and team captain Sidney Crosby. He’ll likely be a game-time decision according to head coach Jon Cooper. Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid leads the team in assists (11) and points (13) and will wear the “C” if Crosby can’t go.
Prediction
These rivalry games are always tough to gauge. Canada has mostly won the matchups against the Americans when NHL players are involved. Team USA did beat Canada in the preliminary round of the 2010 Games in Vancouver.
We’re going to see both teams leave it out on the line. Getting the first goal won’t determine the game, but it could go a long way to deciding it. Canada should skate away with the gold in an instant classic.
Prediction: Canada wins 4-3.
Best Bets
In our last round of Olympic hockey predictions, let’s take a look at some prop bets going into the gold medal game. The over/under for this North American rivalry game is 5.5, and we like the over in this one.
As for individual props, take Macklin Celebrini to score at any time for Canada. On the American side, go with Dylan Larkin to get at least a point in this game.
Main photo by: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
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