Today’s NHL Predictions features an Atlantic Division matchup. We will look at Tampa Bay Lightning (22-17-5) predictions, as they take on the Buffalo Sabres (20-21-4). On Thursday night, the Lightning defeated the Minnesota Wild in a barn burner. Once again, the Lightning were perfect on the power play by scoring three goals on three attempts. Moreover, Victor Hedman notched four points in the evening.
On the other side of this matchup, the Sabres have had a disappointing season relative to expectations. Don Granato had expectations to lead a young group of dynamic players to a playoff spot. However, this outcome has not been the case in Buffalo. On the bright side, Casey Mittelstadt leads the team with 39 points in 45 games. He finally became what the organization projected him to be when they drafted him 8th overall in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft.
Tampa Bay now rides a four-game win streak, their longest of the season to date. The Lightning special teams are rolling, and Jon Cooper has found line combinations that click. Cooper moved natural winger Tyler Motte to centre. Furthermore, he has Steven Stamkos back on the top line. He even has Nick Paul playing wing in the top-six. Here are three keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Generate High-Danger Chances
The kryptonite of the Sabres this season has been their ability to defend high-danger chances. Buffalo allows 11.85 high-danger shot attempts per hour (11.85 HDCA/60) at 5v5, the most out of any team. In two recently tracked games against the Vegas Golden Knights and Los Angeles Kings, the Lightning completed 11 passes to the slot and allowed eight. In short, Tampa Bay controls the high-danger passes (57.89% SLTP%).
Nikita Kucherov and Stamkos completed seven of those 11 passes to the slot, or 63.63% of the high-danger passes. The top line has an opportunity to capitalize on a weak Buffalo defence. We expect Kucherov to continue his offensive rampage this season. He leads all skaters with 75 points in 45 games.
Get Creative With The Shooters Pocket
This season, a trend of the Sabres is to play boring, low-event hockey. The Sabres do not allow or produce shots off the rush. A highly skilled team like the Lightning can become easily frustrated against low-event teams and find ways to lose. To win a slug-fest, Tampa Bay must play confidently and get creative with their chance generation. The Lightning usually slow the game down and play at their own pace. This strategy must carry over against the Sabres.
Buffalo is capable of preventing shot attempts from the perimeter of the zone. The Sabres rank eighth in unblocked shot attempts against per hour at 5v5 this season (43.27 FA/60). Tampa Bay must get creative with their passing and find tight windows to feed passes in the shooter’s pocket. For those who do not understand, the “shooter’s pocket” is an area near the slot where a quick shot results from a perimeter pass. This pass can come from either the wall or the goal line. Below is an image of this scenario. Blue is the Tampa Bay offence, and black is an opponent defending.
Continue Power Play Success
The Lightning power play has been lethal throughout the 2023-24 season. The Tampa Bay power play operates at a 31% success rate, a league-best conversion rate. Additionally, they have six power-play goals on their last six attempts. Brayden Point, Kucherov, Stamkos, and Hedman are simply unstoppable on the man advantage.
The Lightning have an opportunity to put Buffalo away with their power play in this Atlantic Division matchup. The Sabres penalty kill operates at a 79.7% success rate, which ranks 16th in the NHL. Tampa Bay must continue to look for one-touch passes and one-timers to get the opposing defenders and goalies out of position.
Prediction Time
The Lightning and Sabres meet for the second time this season at KeyBank Center. The Lightning are down Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak on the back end. However, Emil Martinsen Lilleberg appears to be here to stay with his solid, physical play. The Lightning lost to the Sabres in overtime at the start of the season. The Sabres are a challenging opponent with decent underlying statistics, but they can not make the pieces click. We believe the Lightning extend their win streak to five games on Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 5-2
Statistics Glossary
SLTP% – Slot Passes For Percentage
Microstats via LastWordOnSports (Jack Pallotta and Kyle Pereira)
On-Ice Statistics via NaturalStatTrick
Main Photo: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
