NHL Predictions with Lightning and Canadiens
Time: 6:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to watch: TNT, truTV, HBO Max, CBC, Sportsnet, TVAS
Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
2025–26 First Round Series: Tied 3-3
Credit Image: © Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire
The Lightning downed Montreal 1-0 in Game 6 to even the best-of-seven series at 3-3, with Gage Goncalves scoring the winner 9:03 into overtime and Andrei Vasilevskiy earning his eighth career playoff shutout. Both teams finished the regular season tied, with Tampa Bay winning the Atlantic Division tie-breaker based on regulation wins. So they get to finish this at home, though it hasn’t been a big advantage in this series. This is the fifth playoff meeting between these two teams, with Tampa Bay winning three of the four previous series. They last met in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, which Tampa Bay won in five games. The teams split their four-game regular season series.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay was a strong offensive team in 2025-26, ranking fourth in the league in goals per game at 3.51. Both teams are 2.33 for this series. Their scoring depth has been the engine driving this run. Brandon Hagel is tied with six goals for the playoff lead. Nikita Kucherov finished the regular season with 130 points (44 goals, 86 assists) in 76 games, but has struggled in this series. In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a key story this series. His .9o5 save percentage has held up compared to Jakub Dobes‘ .916. Game 6 was a reminder of his best self, and Tampa will need that version again Sunday.
Tampa Bay — Keys to Victory
NHL Predictions thinks the Lightning need Vasilevskiy to be the difference-maker once more. Montreal out-chanced Tampa in Game 6 but couldn’t solve him. Tampa must also protect the puck in the neutral zone. Montreal has generated rush chances in bunches all series, and one defensive breakdown in a Game 7 can end a season. Getting Kucherov going offensively is equally critical. He’s been more of a facilitator in this series than a finisher, and Tampa needs production from their best player. If the crowd wants Game 7 to matter at home, then they need to make believe their beach thong is too tight and scream as if it hurts.
Montreal Canadiens Outlook
In this series, Nick Suzuki has no goals, Cole Caufield has scored one goal, and after his first-game hat trick, Juraj Slafkovsky has none. Yet, Montreal is three periods away from winning this series. This is not a team built to survive on luck. They can score on any goaltender on any night. The Canadiens and their combination of size, skating, and shot power make them a legitimate problem for Tampa’s defence. Goaltender Jakub Dobes made 32 saves in Game 6, and despite the shutout loss, he was sharp throughout, including a key stop on Kucherov after Suzuki’s turnover in overtime. Dobes’ regular-season save percentage was .901, so this series has been a proving ground for the young netminder. So far, he hasn’t blinked.
Montreal Canadiens — Keys to Victory
NHL Predictions wants to see the Canadiens convert their chances. Game 6 saw Caufield hit a post on a sizzling shot, and the Canadiens had an expected-goals total of 3.38 yet had nothing to show for it after 60 minutes. The chances are there, they just need one to go in. The power play will also be pivotal. Montreal had a golden opportunity when Kucherov’s trip put them on the man advantage 5:30 into overtime in Game 6, but Vasilevskiy denied a Lane Hutson shot and the Canadiens couldn’t convert. Physicality matters too, and Tampa began turning the puck over, fearing a bruising-fest on their aging players. Even Kucherov gave the puck away when he saw Anderson coming. That edge has to be present again from puck drop.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
Game 7 is a fitting way to end this closely contested series. An anticipated matchup of youth versus experience that hasn’t disappointed. After both teams finished the regular season tied at 106 points, the first three games needed overtime and the next two were decided by a single goal before Game 6’s thriller. Tampa has home-ice advantage and Vasilevskiy at his peak. Montreal has the better of the play at five-on-five and a young core that refuses to panic.
Prediction: Lightning 3, Canadiens 2 (OT)
Prop Bets of the Night
Disclaimer: Please check social media for the latest lineup news and betting lines before locking in your daily fantasy rosters or using these suggestions as law.
Canadiens Team Prop – Over 2.5 Goals (+120) Montreal has out-chanced Tampa all series and is overdue for a multi-goal effort. The chances are there — eventually, they go in.
Juraj Slafkovsky Anytime Scorer (+175) Slafkovsky led all Montreal skaters in regular-season points against Tampa Bay and has been a physical nightmare for the Lightning defenders all series long.
Main Photo Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
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