Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. Our featured game of this edition is the Tampa Bay Lightning visiting the Montreal Canadiens. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
NHL Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens
Series: Canadiens lead 2-1
How to Watch: Sportsnet+, CBC, TVA, ESPN
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
This series has lived up to the hype so far, and we expect much of the same in Game 4. The series shifted to Montreal for Game 3, and the Bell Centre was on wheels as anticipated. After the first two games of the series in Tampa went to overtime, we were treated to yet another overtime thriller, in which the Canadiens secured the win on a Lane Hutson slapshot from the point. Now entering Game 4, the Canadiens are looking to put a stranglehold on the Lightning and return to Tampa Bay up 3-1 in the series, while the Lightning are looking to take home ice advantage back from the Canadiens.
The Canadiens Story
The Canadiens may be the youngest team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs; however, they’re not playing as such. This group has been playing well above their years, and much of that can be credited to the leadership group of this team. Nick Suzuki has been spectacular all season long in helping lead this young group of Canadiens to a 106-point season. Josh Anderson has also stepped up in a big way, with Brendan Gallagher being out of the lineup. He’s essentially taken over Gallagher’s role as the heartbeat of the Canadiens and brought the physical play all series. Anderson has two goals so far in this series.
Speaking of Gallagher, it’s strange watching this team play without him in the playoffs, as he’s always been a key factor for the Canadiens when things matter most. Gallagher is a warrior; however, Martin St. Louis made the difficult decision to sit the longest tenured player on the team. We don’t expect him to draw into the lineup for tonight’s game, as the Canadiens are coming off a win. Kirby Dach had a bounce-back game in Game 3, scoring a goal and adding an assist. Game 2 was extremely rough for Dach, but St. Louis elected to keep him in the lineup, and it paid dividends for the Canadiens.
Juraj Slafkovsky leads the way thus far for the Canadiens, with three goals in three games. Suzuki, Hutson, Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield are all tied for the team lead with three points.
Expect Jakub Dobes to get the call in the net again tonight. The rookie netminder has looked solid so far this postseason with a 2.45 goals-against average and a .892 save percentage.
The Lightning Story
Despite being down 2-1 in the series, the Lightning were just one shot away from having the lead. That’s how tightly contested this series has been. Every game has gone to overtime and could have gone either way. The Lightning have brought intensity to each game, and players like Corey Perry and Brandon Hagel have been playing right on the edge, trying to lure the Canadiens into taking penalties. The gamemanship is on full blast for the Lightning; however, they haven’t exactly been able to get the Canadiens to bite thus far. Outside of a fight that Hagel managed to lure Slafkovsky into, in which Hagel dropped Slafkovsky with a hard right hand after eating a few uppercuts. Surely, the Canadiens staff don’t want to see their young star fighting, so Hagel got two wins in this one.
Hagel has been the Lightning’s best player in this series so far. He’s brought every element you could ask for and currently leads the team in goals with four and points with five. Jake Guenztle also has five assists for five points in three games. Not to be outdone, Nikita Kucherov has a goal and four points in three games. The Lightning’s best players have been exactly that in this series, and they will need to continue to be if they want to have any chance of getting back in this series.
Once again, expect Andrei Vasilevskiy to draw the start in this game. Vasilevskiy has a 2.76 goals-against average and a .880 save percentage through three games.
Prediction and Best Bets
We’re expecting another tightly contested match-up between these two teams again in Game 4. As mentioned, each game has gone to overtime thus far, with the teams trading wins back and forth. However, we believe that comes to an end tonight. The Bell Centre is such a tough building to come into and play for an opposing team, and tonight will be no exception. Expect the Canadiens to rally behind the screams of 21,000 plus fans tonight, and secure the victory against the Lightning.
Canadiens win 3-1
Best Bets
For best bets on the Canadiens side, we like Caufield as an anytime goal scorer at (+125). After potting 51 during the regular season, Caufield has yet to find twine in this series. That should end tonight. Lock it in.
For the Lightning, we like Brayden Point to record a point at (-150). The Lightning are going to need their best players to play as such, and Point has been fairly quiet with just one point so far. Expect him to get on the scoreboard tonight.
With our prediction of a 3-1 final, we also like the under 6 goals total between the two teams tonight at (-120).
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Main Photo: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
