The 2022-23 UEFA Nations League season kicks off in less than a month, making this an appropriate time to forecast how the tournament will unfold. This is is the first in a series of articles that will predict every group, starting with League D and moving up until League A is completed. More specifically, the teams that will be promoted and relegated. Or in the case of League D, just promoted.
UEFA Nations League Predictions
Latvia and Estonia to be Promoted
Group D1 contains Liechtenstein, Moldova, Andorra and Latvia. The Latvian’s previous Nations League season was very disappointing, finishing third in their League D group behind the Faroe Islands and Malta. However, Latvia’s display was still better than that of Liechtenstein and Andorra. As a result, they should be favored over those two. Comparing them with Moldova is trickier since Selectionata played in a different division. Other sources are needed to distinguish them, like their qualification campaigns for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, where Latvia performed marginally better (even after accounting for the fact that their group was a little easier). Another thing that indicates Latvia’s superiority is their higher Elo rating.
Group D2 consists of Malta, Estonia, and San Marino. The latter of the three can instantly be disregarded as a promotion contender, as Malta and Estonia simply are better. Comparing those two’s earlier Nations League displays is difficult because they played in different divisions. Additionally, they both enjoyed the same number of points per match in qualification for the 2022 World Cup.
Estonia beat Belarus, a team slightly better than the sole team Malta defeated, Cyprus. However, Malta also picked up an impressive 2-2 draw away against Slovakia, which means Estonia can’t really be pronounced favorites on these grounds alone. Elo ratings are once again required as a tiebreaker. Estonia and Malta are ranked 104th and 145th respectively. As a result, Sinisärgid should be marginally favored to top the group.
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