The 2002 FIFA World Cup is peculiar, considering it was the first of its kind. It was the first World Cup to take place in Asia and the first hosted by two countries, South Korea and Japan.
This World Cup also saw a different format used when it came to determining the round of 16 bracket. Usually, the Group A winner would face the Group B runner-up, and a similar format would follow throughout. However, at this tournament it was different. This means the knockout stage pairings would have been different if the standard format had been used, which could’ve possibly affected the outcome of the tournament. That’s what we are here to find out.
How Different Knockout Stage Pairings Affected the 2002 FIFA World Cup
Predicting the ‘New’ Fixtures
The round of 16 pairings looked like this in our timeline, with Brazil ultimately beating Germany in the final. If the standard pairing format was used, it would’ve looked like this.
Let’s examine how this difference could’ve potentially affected the tournament’s outcome. These ‘new’ fixtures will be predicted on a basis of probability. Meaning if a team is deemed more likely to beat another, if only by a 0.1 percent margin, they will be the victors. This probability will be determined by a combination of a team’s group stage performance and the general quality of the squad.
England to Beat Germany, Two Scandinavian Quarter-Finalists
Using this logic, Denmark, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, Turkey and Italy would probably advance to the quarter-finals. Turkey beat South Korea in 2002, so they are the winners in their tie by default. Italy were below-par in the group stage, but they have a historical tendency to get their act together for the knockout phase and are labelled winners against hosts Japan on those grounds. Despite Mexico’s fifth game curse, their group stage display was so solid that they have to be regarded as marginal favourites against Belgium.
The two remaining fixtures are toss-ups: Germany against England and Sweden against Republic of Ireland.
Germany obtained two more points than England, but that can be attributed to Die Mannschaft’s group being easier. We have to look elsewhere to distinguish the two – like their most recent battle, that The Three Lions won 5-1 in Munich less than a year prior. A German win is of course possible, but England should still be regarded as marginal favourites. Sweden won the “group of death” and should thus be considered slight favorites against the Republic of Ireland.
Brazil Still Champions, Spain’s First World Cup Final
This would set up the following quarter-final ties:
- Denmark-Brazil
- England-Mexico
- Spain-Turkey
- Sweden-Italy
Brazil, England, Spain and Italy would most likely advance to the semi-finals, using the previously mentioned probability logic. La Roja won’t have to wait until 2010 for their quarter-final curse to end. It’s also worth pointing out that this was a strong Mexican side that would have proved challenging for England.
These quarter-final results would put Brazil against England and Spain against Italy in the final four. Brazil are automatically labelled winners against England because Seleção really did defeat The Three Lions in 2002. Spain’s superior group stage performance makes them slight favourites against Italy.
The hypothetical third-place play-off between England and Italy is a deadlock. However, Italy defeated England away in a friendly three months before the tournament, which functions as a tiebreaker here. England’s poor penalty shootout record does not help their case either, nor does their historically poor major tournament record against the Italians.
Brazil won all of their matches at the 2002 World Cup and it’s doubtful any team in the world could have beat them, including a strong Spanish side. Seleção were simply the best team in the world and would’ve likely reigned supreme against La Roja in this speculative final.
Final standings:
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- Champions: Brazil
- Runners-up: Spain
- Third place: Italy
- Fourth place: England
Main Photo
Embed from Getty Images
