Group C3 features Kosovo – the only team of the four that can still qualify for Euro 2020. They are accompanied by two fellow Balkan teams in Greece and Slovenia. Moldova, who will presumably be relegated, round off the group. The group consists of three teams who could all realistically win it. This article will be predicting Group 3 of UEFA Nations League C.
Predicting Group 3 of UEFA Nations League C
Modest Moldova
Moldova are the weakest team of the group by some margin, performing significantly worse in Euro 2020 qualifying than any other team in Group C3. They are ranked 147th in the world according to Elo Ratings and 175th according to FIFA rankings. Expect them to be relegated.
Kosovo Are no Longer an Underdog
Kosovo’s rise has been unparalleled. They became FIFA – and UEFA – affiliated in 2016 and played their first competitive fixtures in qualification for the 2018 World Cup. In these qualifiers, the Dardanians lost every game except one – a 1-1 draw against Finland.
One potential reason for the struggles is the fact that they did not get to play their home games in Kosovo until Euro 2020 qualifying. Because as soon as they did, their results improved greatly. The secured 11 points and finished third in their group, behind England and the Czech Republic. The former of which was frightened in an eight-goal thriller at Wembley that was ultimately won 5-3 by the Three Lions. Also, Kosovo managed to defeat the Czech Republic in Pristina.
Excluding matches played against sixth-placed teams, Kosovo obtained more points and wins than Greece and Slovenia in 2019 European Qualifiers, so there isn’t a reason not to view the Dardanians as favourites to win this group, even though Ethniki and Slovenia also have the potential.
Slovenia Molecularly Better Than Greece
Greece and Slovenia were both in Euro 2020 qualifying groups containing six teams. It is therefore not necessary to ignore their matches against the sixth-placed teams. They both obtained 14 points, but Slovenia’s goal difference (+5) was much better than that of Greece (-2), which could give them an edge. Additionally, they have proven more against stronger teams. Defeating Poland 2-0 in Ljubljana, for example. In contrast, Greece lost 3-2 at home to Armenia and could only manage a 1-1 draw against Liechtenstein. To be fair, Greece recovered with some impressive wins of their own, but Slovenia are still molecularly better.
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