Football is played as a team. Players get the ball on average three minutes per game as backed up statically. What the player does in those three minutes will decide the team’s chances in the game, percentage of possession, and goal likeliness ratio. We delve deeper into football analysis and how to measure the value of a certain player’s possession.
Football Analysis Units Simplified
Johan Cruyff, through the Barca Innovation Hub, says “it is statistically proven that players actually have the ball for three minutes on average. So, the most important thing is: what do you do during those 87 minutes when you do not have the ball? That is what determines whether you’re a good player or not.”
A player’s actions on the pitch can either help or dent the team’s chances of winning the game. Data analysts and football enthusiasts have the chance to measure certain players’ contributions to the tactical game and the internal numbers such as goal ratio and the chance of a move leading to a goal.
Elite teams like the Bundesliga‘s FC Bayern Munich and La Liga‘s FC Barcelona most likely take advantage of those measurements to make positive changes to the most minimal points of their game, eventually building up to larger positives.
The Art of Goalscoring Dissected
The expected goals value (xG) means how much probability of a goal there is of a player in a game. Obviously, strikers will have a better xG ratio than central defensive midfielders who will most likely have a better PV+ (explained later in the article) for what they do on the field.
This statistic first looks at the player’s shots and counts up how many goals they achieve per shot and per 90 minutes. Ultimately this calculates an expected goal value or xG. This football analysis unit allows coaches and data collectors to select a capable striker; this is a striker that takes his chances and performs more consistently and better more than others.
Of course, the quality of the attacking play by the team affects both xG and the upcoming xA which we’re about to look at.
Creative Play and Assists
The way to measure expected assists ratio (xA) considers a few factors. The length of the pass plays a crucial role; if it’s a long pass across the other side, the ratio will for sure be lower than a shorter pass. A shot using the outside of the foot shot will have less power added to it than an inside footer, also meaning a lower ratio.
The expected assist ratio will help coaches, analysts and others measure how much assists a team/player should have registered during a game or a whole season.
Possession and the Internal Game Value
Central defensive midfielders and other key players who make a good squad are often ignored for the players who score goals or create them. Possession value or PV+ is a unit of measurement to see how much an individual’s possession is worth and how likely a team is to score from it.
If a player receives the ball in a deep position on the pitch from a throw-in, the chances of a goal happening are dull; there is maybe a 1 in 28 chance of scoring a goal in this position. As he carries the ball up the field and creates a good play to the winger on the left who is open to putting a cross into the box- the chance is then updated to 1 in 4 possibilities of the goal happening. This is then added into the player’s average PV+.
As we can finally see, a lot work is done by a player acting as the engine of the team; players such as N’golo Kante, Sergio Busquets and others who like to intercept, move the attack forward and create the play from deeper positions will get their recognition. Thanks to this, analysts and coaches will be able to pick from players with a better PV+ in order to create more effective chances and attacking plays in matches.
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