Gabriel Jesus is one of the brightest young centre-forwards in world football. The 22-year-old Brazilian is in the midst of his best professional season statistically. He’s already got 16 goals this year with plenty of promise for more. However, in Manchester City’s up and down season it has been Gabriel Jesus’s performance raising the biggest long-term questions.
It’s Time for Gabriel Jesus to Be More Clinical
Gabriel Jesus’s Potential
It has long been the idea that Gabriel Jesus is the future at striker for Manchester City. He made the move to Manchester City in January of 2017 for just shy of 30 million. And ever since that move he’s been the much-discussed heir to Sergio Aguero’s starting spot. So much so that the media has even tried pushing Aguero out the door a few times these past few years.
To Jesus’ credit, he is already one of the highest-scoring Brazilian players in the history of the Premier League. He had 27 goals coming into this season, and already has 9 goals in the Premier League this season. In the context of almost any team in Europe, those would be excellent numbers for a 22-year-old coming off the bench more times than not.
He is without a doubt one of the best players at generating chances in the world. Jesus averages 4.5 shots per 90 minutes, a stat he has improved in each of his seasons at Manchester City. However, his shot on target percentage has gone down during his time in Manchester and that is where the problems lie.
Time At Manchester City
Because Gabriel Jesus has one of the best statistical profiles of any Premier League striker. Jesus is responsible for 10.8 non-penalty expected goals, according to Statsbomb data on Fbref.com. That is the second-best total in the Premier League behind only Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham.
That’s a really good number no matter where your playing. However, despite that high xG, Jesus only has 9 PL goals this season. Incidentally, Jesus and Mohamed Salah are the only PL players in the top ten in xG underperforming their total. Players like Abraham, Danny Ings, Jamie Vardy or Marcus Rashford are all outperforming their xG totals.
His incredible ability to create chances shines through in his xG totals. He has by far the fewest minutes of anyone in the top ten in xG. Jesus has more xG than his teammate Raheem Sterling who has played 700 more Premier League minutes than him.
However, right behind them in xG is Sergio Aguero, with fewer minutes than them both. So what does that say about Gabriel Jesus? Are his numbers a product of his talent or the Manchester City system? The answer is somewhere in between.
Gabriel Jesus or the System?
It’s easy to see why Gabriel Jesus could be a product of the system. Manchester City has one of the strongest attacks in Europe. They lead the Premier League in almost every offensive statistical metric. Jesus is one of three players with over 10 xG for City this season alone. Translation; they create a lot of chances to score goals.
With that being said, it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking Gabriel Jesus is fully a product of the system. I mean, somebody has to be on the end of Kevin De Bruyne’s 16 league assists. But it takes a high level of positional understanding to create so many quality places for KDB and others to play the ball.
But Gabriel Jesus needs to be more than just a great striker. He has to be able to replace Sergio Aguero. The Argentine legend’s contract is up at the end of the next season. With club legends Vincent Kompany and David Silva already gone it’s easy to expect that Aguero is the next out the door.
Aguero is still vastly out-performing him as well. Already with 21 goals in all competitions this season on fewer xG and with 500 fewer minutes, Aguero is still at his best. And Gabriel Jesus needs to prove that he can join that elite level of playing striker.
Gabriel Jesus’ Chance
So that makes the rest of this season crucial for Jesus and Manchester City. He has been fairly inconsistent given his high numbers. There have been high highs, like against Everton, or Burnley, or Zagreb in the Champions League. But poor finishing in games like against Crystal Palace, Newcastle or the December derby loss to Manchester United has been costly.
Moreover, arguably Manchester City’s best if not most clinical performance came with Jesus and Aguero on the bench against Manchester United. The fact that Sterling, KDB, Bernardo Silva and Riyad Mahrez outplayed any performance with either striker might weigh heavily when things get serious in the spring.
And if it does it’s hard to imagine Manchester City wouldn’t be looking to add another option at that position. There is a case to be made that City should make Raheem Sterling into their central striker. Though that case is compelling that’s not what we are to discuss today.
Jesus can be the man that replaces Aguero and leads the line for Manchester City. But he needs to clean up his finishing. It sounds like such a simple task, but it’s the type of minuscule adjustment that makes the difference in title winners. Great players clinically pick you apart; it’s time for Gabriel Jesus to clean up his finishing and become a great player.
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