Monday’s Champions League Round of 16 draw wasn’t very kind to Chelsea, handing them Bayern Munich. Granted, most of their potential opponents carry the colloquial title “super club” in their name, but the Germans seem tougher than most.
In a rematch of the 2012 Champions League final, which Chelsea won at Bayern’s home Allianz Arena no less, the west London side have quite the mountain to climb if they want to reach the quarterfinals. Bayern are rightfully the early favourites with many factors playing into their expected advancement.
Chelsea Draw Tough Bayern Munich for Champions League Round of 16
Recent Bias Favours Bayern
The Bavarians cruised to the knockouts, winning all six of their group stage matches by scoring an astounding 24 goals, including seven in one match against Tottenham Hotspur. Defensively, they held up pretty well allowing only five goals, and two of them in that match in London.
So, while Bayern has a domestic fight on their hands, midweek European games have been a breeze. This year, Champions League is where they’ve shined brightest. Plus, they’ll have several weeks off because of the Bundesliga winter break. Come February and March, they’ll have fresher legs than most.
Chelsea, on the other hand, have experienced a roller-coaster season of extreme highs and lows. They lost the first match at home to Valencia, yet won away to last year’s semifinalists, Ajax a few weeks later. At home to the Dutch side, they drew 4-4 in an instant classic. Just to qualify, they needed a win on the final matchday, which they accomplished.
Chelsea made hard work of the group stage and in the domestic league have hit a rough patch. Exacerbating their recent troubles, the Premier League is about to hit the busy Christmas period, the most gruelling test any team can face. Then the Blues must exit the other side of it ready to play Champions League against Bayern? The tallest of orders.
Just based on the circumstances, Bayern enter the tie as heavy favourites. Between the lines, though, do Chelsea have a chance?
Chelsea’s Defensive Frailties
Oddly, Bayern Munich and Chelsea mirror each other in a lot of ways when it comes to their flaws. And with that, each can take advantage of the other’s weaknesses in similar fashions.
Chelsea and Bayern Munich this year have been vulnerable at the back, but for very different reasons. Chelsea’s centre backs are young and inexperienced, which has led to frightening moments. Fikayo Tomori and Kurt Zouma have had their fair share of bad clearances, rash challenges, and raw moments of both brilliance and horror.
At full-back, Cesar Azplicueta can’t keep up with speedy wingers on the left or right. Marcos Alonso and Emerson both excel going forward more than defending. And Reece James hasn’t faced a game of this magnitude or a team of this quality yet.
That doesn’t even consider set pieces, which has been Chelsea’s Achilles heel this year.
Suffice it to say, Lampard will have to make tough decisions at the back. And anything short of remarkable performances, because they’ll need that at minimum to make the two legs close, will be cause for criticism.
For Bayern, this is a dream match up. Robert Lewandowski will be able to run Chelsea’s centre backs ragged and force them into difficult decisions, which shouldn’t amount to a difficult task for the Poland native. Plus, his aerial threat both from crosses in open play and from corners will cause Chelsea nightmares.
Out wide, Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman should have no trouble blowing past Azpilicueta and either Emerson or Alonso. If Bayern can stretch Chelsea, they have a chance of scoring relentlessly with an average keeper in Kepa manning the net.
The English side have conceded countless goals from set-pieces and crosses into the box from open play both domestically and in Europe. When going up against one of the best attacks on the continent, they’ll likely allow more than a couple over 180 minutes.
Bayern’s attack versus Chelsea’s defence is a one-sided matchup.
Chelsea’s Chances
On the flip side, Chelsea might have their way with the Bavarian backline as well. Tammy Abraham, Christian Pulisic, and one of Willian, Callum Hudson-Odoi, or Mason Mount have the ability, creativity, and pace to shred the ageing Jerome Boateng at centre back.
David Alaba has filled in at centre back as of late, not his natural position, while Alphonso Davies now plays regularly as a left-back instead of a left-sided attacking player. If those two struggle playing out of position, then Chelsea have a chance to give the Germans a run for their money.
The front three of Chelsea will have to play well and be in form and in sync if they want to outscore Bayern and advance.
Uphill Battle
It was a tough draw for Chelsea as Bayern won’t be an easy task. But of course, the Blues still have a chance as anything can happen over two legs. Chelsea must get a good result at home just to give themselves a shot comes the second leg.
Will the defence rise to the occasion against one of Europe’s deadliest finishers? Will the attack slice and dice a makeshift German backline? Can Mateo Kovacic and Jorginho play brilliantly against a strong midfield featuring world-class talent as they’ve done week in week out this year?
Or, will Chelsea crumble under the pressure? Will their inexperience and naivety force costly and devastating errors?
With Chelsea now able to buy in January, will they try to address these issues and strengthen for the second half of the year?
This is one of the toughest matchups Chelsea could’ve gotten and it will be a real test of Lampard and his team.
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