Pep Guardiola is always the first person to tell you that he will not change his style or his principles about playing football. Well, for the first time in his career, there is evidence that that is no longer the case. He will never change his principles, but the style that this Manchester City side play with in 2019/2020 is different.
Believe Him or Not, Pep Guardiola Has Changed His Style
Pep Guardiola’s Changes
Let’s be clear right at the start; this is not a drastic change in the style of play. Nothing is going to make Pep Guardiola suddenly abandon Johan Cruyff’s principles. But, like Cruyff, Guardiola is trying to find a new way to apply those principles within the context of today’s game, which means his teams are still playing the same way but in a different formation.
This season Manchester City have essentially been playing a 4-4-1-1, with a double pivot in midfield. The double-pivot allows the two wingers to join the two forwards in possession but forces them to track back to protect the full-backs. However, the two wingers, usually Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva, are given license to press incredibly high.
So too does Kevin De Bruyne. In some cases, De Bruyne will push all the way up to Silva and Sergio Aguero to try and press from midfield.
If the press doesn’t win the ball back, then they drop into formation. This picture from Michael Cox’s piece on The Athletic from the Chelsea game is a perfect example.
Here, Aguero and David Silva are the furthest forward, with the two wingers in a deeper line of four with Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne. The result has been more aggressive counter-attacking football. Their possession stats are down, but shots and goals are up from this time last year. Nobody needs to hear about the difference in the table.
Why Has Pep Guardiola Changed?
So why has Pep Guardiola decided that he needed to change his formation, and therein his style of play? Manchester City supporters will remember the last three Champions League campaigns and how they ended. Those were all chaotic, end-to-end games that City tried to control but ultimately failed to.
It seems that Guardiola’s response has been to give up some of the control he wants his team to have in these games. His team is averaging only 61% possession in the Premier League and an even lower 58% in the Champions League. It’s certainly a far cry from the Barcelona or Bayern Munich teams that would regularly have 70% or higher possession.
Now, there is no guarantee that adjusting to a more chaotic Champions League will lead to Manchester City winning it, but that’s why Guardiola has gone with that 4-4-1-1 formation. It has basically become the formation of choice for most of the top clubs across Europe.
The easiest example to point to is Zinedine Zidane’s Champions League winning Real Madrid squad, but there are others like Ernesto Valverde’s Barcelona and Carlo Ancelotti’s Napoli. Even Jurgen Klopp has used it in the Champions League, playing Mohamed Salah up front and Roberto Firmino behind him.
It has really become the en vogue European tactic over the last few years, and now that Guardiola is using it, he should have the players to enhance it. However, it’s hard to say that the early results have been stellar.
Results So Far
The resulting differences between this season and the last two seasons are probably, in equal parts good and bad. They’re generating a lot more chances than last season and scoring more goals. Sergio Aguero, Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva all have a higher xG per 90 than they did last season, per Understat.com.
What’s strange is how much Manchester City have been crossing the ball this season. They have had multiple games this season with over 30 crosses, and De Bruyne is averaging over 11 crosses per 90 minutes. As Sam Lee of The Athletic has pointed out, it seems to be some kind of Plan B this season, which is odd among other things.
They have also given up more goals than they did this time last season. In sacrificing more control, Pep Guardiola has put his defenders in more high-risk situations. Asking 34-year-old Fernandinho and 32-year-old Nicolas Otamendi to make the right decisions in space at high speed is dangerous, to say the least. It could also be described as self-imploding or asking JR Smith to play fundamental basketball.
To his credit, Guardiola understands that. The Burnley game on Tuesday was an example of City getting back to what they know. A 4-3-3 formation and 76% possession, along with 17 shots was what they needed, but feels more like an adjustment for personnel rather than a permanent stylistic reversal.
Pep’s Real Plan
The 4-4-1-1 will be back because he has some outstanding options to execute it, they just aren’t available right now. First of all, clearly the most important piece of this formation would have been Aymeric Laporte. The Frenchman is expected back sometime in February and it’s easy to see how he could impact this chaotic style.
His athleticism alone would be a massive boost to this backline. More importantly, he gets his positioning and timing right far more often than any of Manchester City’s other centre-back options. He isn’t the only missing City player who would really help this system.
It has become clear that Manchester City’s best left-back in 2019 is Oleksandr Zinchenko. The young Ukranian is a good, solid player; technically sound, smart, and doesn’t turn the ball over. And with the inconsistency from Benjamin Mendy and Angelino adjusting to the Premier League, a comfortable presence like that would be helpful.
So too would Leroy Sane. Despite stating the obvious, Sane’s ability to get to the byline would be massive for a team trying to cross this much. Even if they weren’t this team has won the league with Sane and Sterling getting to the byline over and over and over again.
Manchester Derby
With all that in mind, it’s time to look at the Manchester Derby. Manchester United travel to the Etihad after a surprise win against Jose Mourinho’s Tottenham Hotspur, but that probably won’t matter. Some of these Manchester United players are probably equivalent to the City teams of the past.
City at home should pummel this Manchester United team. They’re just playing at a different level. It will be more interesting to see which style and system Pep Guardiola chooses to play. Going with the 4-4-1-1 will ultimately leave his defence exposed against Marcus Rashford and co.
For that reason, City might try and control the game and the possession like they did against Burnley. Either way, it’s hard to see City not really taking it to United.
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