Arsenal sit third in the Premier League during this international break. They are also just one point removed from second place, occupied by Manchester City. However, the underlying statistics suggest that their league position is anything but safe.
Arsenal: Worrying Underlying Premier League Statistics
All statistics courtesy of Understat.
Expected Goals
xG is a relatively new statistic but it gives some interesting insight into a club’s performance. Basically it measures how many goals a club should score from the chances they create.
Out of the big six clubs this season, Arsenal have created the second fewest xG, 11.75. While Tottenham Hotspur‘s 10.99 is worse, it is very far off xG leaders City, sitting on 25.55 xG.
This dearth of scoring opportunities suggests a couple of things. First, Arsenal are overly-reliant on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. For a club to stay near the top of the table while creating so few chances, they need a world-class finisher who will score far more than he misses.
The Gunners have got that player in Auba, however, everyone has off days from time to time. Should they not create more chances, they risk a serious digression.
Second, we can clearly see that Unai Emery’s tactics have been too defensive. Setting out to defend first is not an inherently poor choice; it is only when a club’s strength is in attack that focusing on defence is the wrong decision.
That is exactly where Arsenal are at the moment. The likes of Hector Bellerin, Kieran Tierney and Rob Holding have yet to impact the first team. Furthermore, Arsenal haven’t had a proper right-back all season, playing two out-of-position instead, and their left-back is not very good going back.
Perhaps things will change once the long-term absentees return, but for now, Emery seems to be getting his tactics wrong.
Expected Goals Against
xG is only one side of the coin in this discussion, the other being xGA. It is here that we see an even more worrying aspect of Arsenal’s play this season.
The Gunners have allowed more xGA than any one else in the big six this season, 12.97. They are also one of just two qualifying clubs whose xGA outweighs their xG with the other being Spurs.
Even worse, the disparity between the two north London clubs and the rest is quite staggering. Liverpool have scored 19.42 xG and 7.4 xGA, a difference of +12.02. City have 25.55 xG and 9.66 xGA for a difference of +15.89.
Manchester United have scored 12.19 xG and allowed 6.19 xGA, a difference of +6. Chelsea have 17.27 xG and 11.9 xGA for a difference of +5.37. Spurs have an xG of 10.99 and an xGA of 12.03, a difference of -1.04.
Finally, Arsenal sit bottom of the pile with 11.75 xG compared to 12.97 xGA, a difference of -1.22.
Arsenal Underlying Statistics Worrying
The Gunners are punching above their weight, so to speak. They are outperforming their xG and xGA data by an alarming rate. Basically this suggests that a serious regression to the mean is on the horizon.
Something similar happened at the end of last season. With the club sitting third and with eight winnable matches left on the fixtures list, they seemed certain to finish in the top four.
However, a season of under-performing came good in those final weeks and Arsenal found themselves in the Europa League again. Hopefully the return of the three aforementioned defenders will help this.
Alexandre Lacazette‘s return would perhaps also do something to stem the tide. However, in the interim, it is down to Unai Emery to improve performances. He needs to steady the ship else he may not get his contract extension.
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