With the regular season ticking down to a close this past weekend, the time has come again for four teams; time to put all the past season behind you and look ahead to a possible promotion. Some teams came desperately close the automatics, others stormed to their play-off place. They all vie for the same goal; promotion to English football’s promised land. The Championship play-offs are the one thing standing in their way.
Championship Play-Offs: The Ins and Outs
Leeds v Derby: Spygate Fires Rekindled
Leeds will have to put the past month behind them and go back to the drawing board. Having lost three of their last five, they limped across the finish line with a four-game winless run. Derby, however, are one the division’s form teams, unbeaten in their last six games going into the tie. Their 3-1 win over West Bromwich Albion on Sunday will give them confidence ahead of these clashes.
Leeds have comfortably beaten Derby twice already this season. One of these wins, though, came under tainted circumstances, causing the well-documented ‘Spygate’ saga. Derby players will likely have revenge in their minds ahead of the clash. Could Marcelo Bielsa outwit the Rams yet again?
Leeds have the task of putting a failed automatic promotion bid out of their heads. This could prove troublesome, especially when they had it in their own hands only four games ago, and were top at Christmas. The other sides will have been preparing for this eventuality for a while, and momentum could carry them to the last hurdle.
No Left-Back, No Problem?
Leeds are having somewhat of an injury crisis at left-back. With Ezgjan Alioski‘s season over and Barry Douglas a doubt, Stuart Dallas will have to step in again. Patrick Bamford will miss the first leg, completing his ban for deceiving the referee against Aston Villa. Meanwhile, Martyn Waghorn and Ashley Cole are doubts for the first leg, with the former forced off against West Brom on Sunday. Craig Bryson may have played his last game for the club with an injury possibly forcing him out of the play-offs and his contract up in the summer.
Neither side have had much luck in recent play-off history. This is Derby’s fourth play-off appearance in six years, semi-finalists in 2016 and 2018. A 1-0 defeat in the 2014 Final compounds their play-off misery of recent years. Derby’s only play-off success in seven attempts came in 2007 against West Brom (1-0). Leeds have four appearances in the play-offs, two in the Championship and two in League One. None of these saw them victorious; their 3-0 defeat to Watford in the 2006 final remains the closest they have come. Of course, records mean nothing when the ball is off the centre-circle, though it can weigh on players’ minds up until kick-off.
West Brom v Aston Villa: A Midlands Clash
Two weeks ago, Aston Villa would have been everyone’s bet for play-off success. On the back of a club-record ten-game winning streak, they had climbed from mid-table obscurity to promotion contention. Their last two games have seen them falter slightly. They drew at Elland Road in a fiery affair with Leeds and lost their last game of the season at home to Norwich City. These are two of the division’s toughest sides, though, so there is no reason to be fearful just yet.
West Brom have been in at least the play-off places since November. Their relative consistency has carried them safely to a possible promotion birth. They are unbeaten against their Midlands rivals (one win, one draw). If this match should promise anything, it’s goals. They have scored the second and third most league goals amongst them (West Brom 87, Aston Villa 82). This exciting tie could come down to whose attack is more prolific on the day.
Returning Players to Make the Difference?
Villa are blessed to not have any fresh injury concerns ahead of the tie. Top scorer Tammy Abraham was rested for the Norwich match but should return against the Baggies. However, John McGinn (14 yellow cards), the club’s Player of the Season, is only one booking away from another suspension, which could prove costly in his side’s play-off bid. West Brom are at near full strength themselves. Jake Livermore could return from an ankle injury. Hal Robson-Kanu was sent off against Derby, a decision which his side are yet to appeal. As it stands, he will miss their ties against the Rams and a potential final at Wembley.
Many of Villa’s players will have the play-off final defeat of last year still lingering in their minds. That is a difficult hoodoo to shake. Though, they stand in good stead to shake that after an extremely promising two months. Villa’s defeat against Fulham was the ending of their only play-off campaign. West Brom are the only other team to taste some success in the play-offs, beating Bristol Rovers in Division Two back in 1993. Their two outings in the Championship play-offs both ended in defeat (Bolton in 2001 semi-final and Derby in 2007 final).
Stats Mean Nothing
Leeds are the only side to have beaten all the other contenders at least once this season. Contrary to popular belief, a poor run of form in the final ten games can be beneficial. Fulham are the only Championship play-off winners finishing with more points in the final ten games than their opponents in the play-off final. Other than that, every winner has averaged fewer points over this final stretch than their adversaries at Wembley. Is form enough to carry you to success? Perhaps not. Luckily for Leeds fans, the third-placed team is statistically the most likely to taste success. As one would expect, the sixth-placed team is the least likely. Blackpool are the only side of the past ten years to finish in sixth and win promotion to the Premier League (2010).
Will Leeds and Villa’s fiery affair have a sequel? Will Lampard come up against Terry in the dugouts at Wembley? Can West Brom bounce back at the first time of asking? This is the time when players stand up and lead their team forward. It can be cruel to have a whole season coming down to these few games, but the Championship is a harsh sea. Which team will be able to plot a clear course to the Premier League will become clear soon.
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