Welcome to the EFL Final Five. Last Word On Football’s look at the potential ups and downs heading into the remaining five fixtures of the season.
This time we are focusing on the Championship. Norwich City have one foot in the Premier League having opened up a six-point gap over the chasing pack in recent weeks. Anyone currently inside the top ten is still eying a play-off spot and the fight for survival heats up.
Championship Final Five: Norwich Almost Premier League, Top Ten Retain Playoff Hopes
Norwich City Almost in Premier League
Norwich City look set to reap the rewards of their decision to remain patient with their head coach Daniel Farke. Their underwhelming 14th place finish last season briefly cast doubt over the appointment of the German coach. His side now sit atop the Championship table and continue to gather momentum, currently on a nine-game unbeaten run, including eight wins.
The Canaries’ good away form has helped put them firmly on the pathway to promotion. They’ve picked up 40 points on the road this season, more than any other side in the division. Just weeks ago, Norwich were locked in a four-way battle for Championship supremacy but as those around them faulted, Farke’s men pushed on.
Their season took a while to get going, losing three of their first five league games. However, Norwich are now six points clear at the top with one eye on the title. More crucially, they are seven points clear of third place with one foot in the Premier League.
The Others Looking Up
Presuming that Norwich stay on course, Leeds United and Sheffield United are locked in a two horse race for the remaining automatic spot. The two sides have been trading places in recent weeks and are set to take it to the wire.
Leeds United are within touching distance of a return to the Premier League for the first time since the 2003/04 season. They are just one solitary point ahead of Sheffield United despite suffering two defeats in their last six games, one of which coming at the hands of their Yorkshire and promotion rivals.
Sheffield United failed to build on that victory however as they were beaten by Bristol City in their following fixture. It was their first loss since January 19th, ending a run of ten games without defeat before bouncing back with a 1-0 victory over playoff outsiders Preston North End. Both sides are good enough to escape this division and are pushing each other hard going into the final five.
Play-Offs
West Bromwich Albion will join either Leeds United or Sheffield United in the play-offs barring a disastrous run of results. The Baggies have fallen away from the leaders in recent weeks but remain fairly comfortable in the top six, nine points clear of seventh.
The remaining two play-off spots could realistically be filled by anyone inside the top ten though they are currently held by Aston Villa and Bristol City. Aston Villa were sat in 13th place as recently as March 2nd, eight points off the top six. They’ve come around to Dean Smith’s approach at just the right time and head into the business end of the season on a seven-game winning run.
Bristol City hit a dip in November losing four games in a row but have lost just three of the 21 games since. They arguably have the toughest run of remaining games though they do have a game in hand that will be played against Millwall.
Play-Off Challengers
Four sides sit within six points of the top six waiting for a slip up that can be capitalised upon. Middlesbrough held a playoff spot for a majority of the season but have since fallen away suffering six straight defeats before beating struggling Bolton Wanderers. Derby County’s playoff hopes took a hit in February, losing three on the bounce without scoring.
Sheffield Wednesday are quietly going about their business flying somewhat under the radar. Their only defeat in their last 14 games came against Aston Villa, making them the outsiders to watch. Hull City are also in the chasing pack but are also chasing form, seemingly unable to put a run of wins together until recently. Three wins in a row for the Tigers keep them in the race, though they came against three clubs fighting for survival.
Ipswich Will Be Relegated If They Don’t Win on Saturday
It’s been a horrific season for Ipswich Town. Many fans got what they wanted when Mick McCarthy left the club towards the end of last season, as they became fed up of the negative football on display. However, few Town supporters would have expected to be in their current predicament. They’ve been languishing rock bottom of the table for the majority of the year, and they’re now 14 points off safety with five games remaining. Relegation will be confirmed if they fail to beat Birmingham City on Saturday.
Where did it all go wrong for the Tractor Boys? The summer appointment of Paul Hurst was greeted with optimism after he guided Shrewsbury Town to the League One play-off final. However, things started to unravel quickly. Last season’s star man Martyn Waghorn went to Derby County, and Joe Garner moved to Ipswich. David McGoldrick left on a free, and loan winger Bersant Celina returned to Manchester City before being sold to Swansea City. Between them, they hit 39 league goals last season, 68% of Ipswich’s goals.
Bolton Need a Miracle
Crisis club Bolton Wanderers also look destined for League One football. They are nine points adrift of safety in what could go down as the worst season in the club’s history. In fact, this campaign has been so bad that poor performances on the pitch are merely the tip of the iceberg. They’ve been plagued by off-field issues throughout the season. Trotters fans may be grateful just to have a club that exists next term.
The players have been paid late for the last two months in a row, and they went on strike from training before their crucial game against Ipswich. Owner Ken Anderson seems to take little to no responsibility over this situation. The club will at least stay afloat for the rest of this season, but there is a real threat of either administration or liquidation over the summer.
It’s safe to say these off-field matters haven’t helped performances on the pitch. Bolton have only claimed victory in three league matches since Boxing Day. Wanderers may have picked up ten points out of the first 12 available in August, but that impressive start seems a light years ago. Phil Parkinson’s men face Derby, Aston Villa, Blackburn, Brentford and Nottingham Forest in their final five matches.
Rotherham United and Wigan Athletic are in the Most Danger of Joining Them
Realistically speaking, Rotherham, Wigan, Reading and Millwall are fighting to avoid finishing in that final relegation spot. Queens Park Rangers are the nearest team to that quartet in terms of points, but they are six points clear of the drop zone. They should be fine – but you never quite know in the Championship.
Rotherham currently occupy the 22nd spot. They are one of the most hard-working sides in the league, and Paul Warne has done a credible job with limited funds. The Millers’ recent form hasn’t been too bad either. They’ve won three and lost four of their last seven games, and that included claiming their first away win of the season at QPR. United only have to play two teams in the top half in their final five games, and one of those is against Middlesbrough, who had lost six matches in a row before beating Bolton on Tuesday.
Wigan are one place and two points above Rotherham. The newly-promoted Latics enjoyed a terrific start to the season. After beating West Brom 1-0 in November, Paul Cook’s men were seventh in the table. Since then they’ve only won four games and have free-fallen down the division. It’s mainly their away form that has plagued them, as they’ve picked up seven points on the road all season. That’s the worst record in the division. Also, Wigan’s run-in is incredibly tough. The Latics have the top two teams in the Championship up next, as they host Norwich before travelling to Leeds. After that, they face Preston, Birmingham and a potential relegation decider with Millwall on the final day.
Reading and Millwall Anxiously Look Over Their Shoulders
Reading looked destined for relegation earlier in the season, but their fortunes have improved since they appointed Jose Gomes in December. The Portugese has worked hard to introduce a more attractive brand of football that initially improved performances but not results. However, in their last ten games, the Berkshire outfit have won four, drawn three and lost three. That’s certainly not relegation form. Despite this, the Royals still have a long way to go before securing their Championship status.
Millwall were the surprise package of last season’s Championship, as an incredible run in the second half of the season nearly landed the Lions a top six finish. However, Neil Harris’ men haven’t been able to repeat those heroics in the league this term. They, like Wigan and Reading, are on 41 points. However, due to their fantastic FA Cup run, the Lions have a game in hand on the teams around them. Three of their final six games do look very tricky – Millwall have to face Sheffield United and Aston Villa away, and their game in hand is at home to play-off chasing Bristol City.
To read our EFL Final Five League One edition, click here
To read our EFL Final Five League Two edition, click here
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