UPDATE DEC. 13:
Alexander Ovechkin is just a hat trick away from reaching 800 goals. Could tonight be the night? The Great Eight has 28 career three-goal performances, so anything’s possible. Here are the updated odds for Ovi’s chase.
View original article and Ovechkin’s remaining schedule below.
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Original article posted Dec. 1:
Alexander Ovechkin is just a few goals away from the historic 800 mark. The iconic moment will inevitably come this year. The only question is, which team will the Great 8 immortalize?
The Ottawa Senators are the favorite, but the best value is found elsewhere.
Ovechkin this season
The 37-year-old Russian keeps on bringing it. As of Dec. 1, Ovechkin has 13 goals and 23 points in 24 contests. He leads the Capitals in goals and points and has found the back of the net in 54% of the games he’s played (two two-goal games).
Ovi currently sits at 793 career goals. He’s seven away from becoming just the third player in history to hit 800 and eight away from tying Gordie Howe (801) for second all-time. He should smash both those milestones this season but has a way to go to break Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894.
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Washington Capitals upcoming schedule
The Caps still have 58 games remaining, but at Ovechkin’s current pace, he’ll bury his 800th before the New Year. If the trend of scoring in 54% of his games holds true, he will reach the mark in 13 games. That would be against the New York Rangers on Dec. 27.
Of course, there are many variables in play. For one, Ovi has yet to score in bunches this year as he has in the past. By this time last year, he already had four multi-score games. You also have to consider the opponents and their defensive abilities. This is just a rough estimate.
The legendary winger has been known to go on goal-scoring tears. You wonder if he might pick up the pace now that the record is within reach. For his career, Ovechkin has put the puck in the net in 61% of his games (1,298).
Assuming Ovi won’t break the record in the next five games (we could be wrong), here’s a list of his opponents and odds from Dec. 11 – Jan. 11. You can bet on this and more at the best NHL betting sites.
Dec. 11 Winnipeg Jets +700
Dec. 13 Chicago Blackhawks +3800
Dec. 15 Dallas Stars +2200
Dec. 17 Toronto Maple Leafs +1600
Dec. 19 Detroit Red Wings +1100
Dec. 22 Ottawa Senators +400
Dec. 23 Winnipeg Jets +700
Dec. 27 New York Rangers +1000
Dec. 29 Ottawa Senators +400
Dec. 31 Montreal Canadiens +900
Jan. 3 Buffalo Sabres +950
Jan. 5 Columbus Blue Jackets +600
Jan. 6 Nashville Predators +1700
Jan. 8 Columbus Blue Jackets +600
Jan. 11 Philadelphia Flyers +1300
Which teams should you target?
Ottawa Senators +400
The shortest odds belong to the Ottawa Senators (+400). The Capitals play the Sens twice in four games between Dec. 22 and Dec. 29. Those are games 11 and 14 from now.
To hit 800 in 14 games, Ovi would have to score at a 50% clip from now until then. To hit it in 11, he’d have to score in 64% of his games. Both are possibilities, but there’s better value on three other teams floating around the same timeline.
Montreal Canadiens +900
Ovechkin plays the Canadiens 15 games from now on Dec. 31. This is just one game after the last Ottawa game, and the odds suddenly jump to +900. There’s great value here on what could be a New Year’s Eve to remember.
New York Rangers +1000
The Caps play the Rangers on Dec. 27, just one game before the second Senators game. It’s another huge odds spike from Ottawa’s +400. As mentioned above, if Ovi stays on his current pace, this would be the game he hits 800.
Nashville Predators +1700
If you want to get freaky, take a shot at Nashville. The Predators would be Ovechkin’s 18th game from now. He’d have to slow his scoring pace to 39%, but it’s still in the realm of possibility.
Ovi has been known to get a little sluggish around the holiday season. Last year, he had just five goals in December after collecting 10 in November.
