It’s a quarterback’s world, and we’re all just living in it. The NFL MVP award has gone to a QB for nine straight seasons and 14 of the last 15. Don’t expect that trend to change this year.
Patrick Mahomes leads the charge, but Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa are hot on his heels. Here’s a look at the top candidates and their odds from the best NFL betting sites.
2022 NFL MVP Odds
Who are the NFL MVP favorites?
QB Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes wasn’t the favorite to win MVP this season, and it seems he took it personally. Mahomes has been lights out all season long, leaving fans picking up their collective jaw week in and week out. There’s still plenty of football to play, but it’s his to lose at this point.
But as we’ve seen over and over again in the NFL – things can turn on a dime. It seems like every year the Kansas City quarterback goes through a bit of a slump (by his standards) for three to four weeks. We haven’t seen it yet this year, but the MVP race will be wide open if it happens down the stretch.
However, it’s hard to imagine that happening when you look at the Chiefs’ schedule. After a tough match against the Bengals this week, they’re almost home free. They’ll face the Broncos twice, the Texans, the Raiders, and the Seahawks. Those four teams have a combined record of 14-29-1.
Mahomes currently leads the NFL in passing yards (3,585) and passing TDs (29).
QB Jalen Hurts
If you grabbed Jalen Hurts before the season started at 40-1 odds – kudos to you. The third-year pro has had his coming out party this year and has led the Eagles to a league-best 10-1 record.
Hurts has been climbing the MVP charts all year but has shot up near the top after an otherworldly performance on Sunday Night Football against the Packers.
His dynamic dual-threat style has seen him rack up 597 rushing yards to complement his 2,560 yards through the air. The former second-rounder has 24 total touchdowns and just three interceptions, putting him firmly in the MVP conversation.
Hurts has been a great story this year, and it would be easy to see him getting the votes if he can sustain his production for the rest of the season.
QB Tua Tagovailoa
If there’s one story that could top Hurts and the Eagles, it might be Tua and the Dolphins. Tagovailoa has had his career written off on more than one occasion. Coming into the season, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the ex-Alabama standout’s days were numbered as a Dolphin.
But it’s amazing what a new coach and the world’s best wide receiver can do for a QB’s confidence. Rookie head coach Mike McDaniel has schemed up an offensive masterpiece this season, using Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to perfection.
Tagovailoa isn’t flashy like Mahomes or Hurts but has been almost flawless at distributing the ball. He heads into Week 13 with a 69.7 completion percentage and a league-leading 115.7 passer rating.
Sleepers to watch
QB Joe Burrow
Don’t sleep on Joe Burrow. The league did that last season, and he took the Bengals all the way to the Super Bowl. After a bit of a stumble out of the gate, Burrow is back on track and has Cincinnati in a tie atop the AFC North.
The Bengals play the Chiefs this week in a tilt that could go a long way in deciding this year’s MVP. Burrow sits third in the league in passing yards (3,160) and second in passing touchdowns (T, 23).
QB Lamar Jackson
This is what you’d call a buy-low moment on Lamar Jackson. His passing numbers haven’t jumped off the page this year, but he’s on pace to rush for 1,167 yards. That would be just under the 1,206 he had when he won the MVP in 2019.
And now the Ravens’ schedule is about to get silky smooth. Baltimore will play the next five games against teams with a combined record of 16-29. This is Jackson’s chance to make his move.
QB Josh Allen
The Bills were favored to win the Super Bowl this year, and Allen was supposed to cruise to his first MVP title. While both are still possibilities, things look a little more complicated now.
After exploding out of the gates, Allen and the Bills have come crashing down to earth. The 6’5 QB has his highest interception percentage since his rookie season and hasn’t looked quite like the superhuman we’ve come to expect.
But through all the adversity this season, Allen is still second in the league in passing yards (3,183) and touchdowns (T, 23). The Bills have put together two straight victories, and things look like they’re starting to click again. Now might be the time to buy low on the fifth-year pro.
Past NFL MVP winners
2021 – QB Aaron Rodgers
2020 – QB Aaron Rodgers
2019 – QB Lamar Jackson
2018 – QB Patrick Mahomes
2017 – QB Tom Brady
2016 – QB Matt Ryan
2015 – QB Cam Newton
2014 – QB Aaron Rodgers
2013 – QB Peyton Manning
2012 – RB Adrian Peterson
2011 – QB Aaron Rodgers
2010 – QB Tom Brady
2009 – QB Peyton Manning
2008 – QB Peyton Manning
2007 – QB Tom Brady
