Houston has a problem. It’s reminiscent of one they’ve had before. Can they fix it in time to save their 2024–25 season? A shot at the play-in tournament is on the line this year. More importantly, though, the long-term future of the franchise may be at stake as well.
The Similarities Between Jalen Green and Steve Francis
Houston Today
Pre-season has already begun. The regular season will begin on the 22nd of October. Supposedly, Houston has made some progress in contract extension talks with starting center Alperen Sengun. The franchise is clearly trying to maintain some cap flexibility in the hazardous world of the new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement). There’s also the slightly awkward roster-building proposition that a player with Sengun’s particular profile presents. However, Houston’s real problem isn’t necessarily about Sengun at all, it may be more about his co-star, Jalen Green.
Houston Then
Interestingly, the Houston Rockets are a franchise that has been in a similar situation before. Enter Steve Francis, the former Houston point guard and huge fan favorite. It turned out he wasn’t Jeff Van Gundy‘s favorite though. The then Houston head coach, who would go on to become a long-time ESPN announcer, drastically reduced Francis’ role in favor of what he saw as a more efficient offensive option. That offensive option was none other than Hall of Famer Yao Ming. Next, general manager Daryl Morey reduced Francis’ role even further. He packaged him in a trade for another Hall of Famer in Tracy McGrady.
How Francis Became the Franchise
So it was that Francis only played with Houston for the first five years of his career. Memorably, he wasn’t actually drafted by the team though. Instead, he was drafted by the now-defunct Vancouver Grizzlies with the second overall pick in 1999. Throughout that brief Houston career, Francis averaged 19.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. That’s including his final year, which occurred after his relegation in the pecking order reduced his average to 16.6 points per game. In his time there, he won Rookie of the Year and was a three-time All-Star. He was an electric player to watch, with a bombastic style and the bonafide best nickname in sports – Stevie Franchise.
However, aside from 6.0 free throw attempts per game and a decent conversion rate of 79.1%, Francis’ shot profile wasn’t exactly optimal. Teams learned to counter his driving prowess with sags and give up the midrange jump shot. Francis, commendably, took what the defense was giving him. Unfortunately, he took it a little too readily and struggled to achieve great efficiency in doing so. As a result, Francis’ Houston percentages were very similar to those achieved by Houston’s current aspiring superstar.
Why Houston’s Current Problem Is Similar
Last season, Green averaged 42.3% from the field and 33.2% from three. Francis averaged 43.1% from the field and only 34.6% from three. It’s important to note that Green did attempt 7.4 threes per game compared with Francis’ mere 3.6. However, modern NBA teams on average shoot over twice as many threes as they did in the early 2000s. The fact is that Green hasn’t been a good shooter thus far in his career, combined with his lack of play-making prowess, makes him an awkward fit with Houston’s other star, Sengun, the Yao equivalent in this possible present-day retelling.
Yao’s career wound up being drastically curtailed by injuries. Even so, Sengun has a long way to go before he matches the Hall of Famer’s production. Nonetheless, the parallel is there. In a league where the last six MVP awards have all been won by big men, teams would be wise to consider prioritizing their talented young centers. That’s especially true when Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic won three of those MVPs and your talented young center keeps getting compared to him.
How Things Could Be Different This Time Around
Similarly to Yao, Francis had injury problems that exacerbated his decline and expedited his departure from the league. There is certainly no suggestion intended here that Green will experience any of that. Green’s problem is more about his decision-making with the ball and his effectiveness off of the ball. One of those aspects of his game will have to drastically improve if he’s ever going to be a truly build-around caliber of player. As it is, Houston may even face the problem that Green isn’t a build-around caliber of player for a trade to land a star as good as McGrady.
Alternatively, Green could make a leap this season. Green isn’t Kevin Durant, he can’t just pull from midrange at the first sign of trouble, not if he doesn’t want to get pulled from the game at the first stoppage of play. He isn’t Francis either – Green’s bigger, more athletic, and he plays shooting guard instead of point guard. But, like Francis, he is an isolation-oriented scoring guard who loves to drive to the hoop without a plan. Also like Francis, though, he’s a marketable young star with an exhilarating highlight reel.
The Last Word
Houston will hope that this is the year Green departs from the Stevie Franchise script (though Green has already skipped the line about making multiple All-Star teams). He’ll probably get more opportunities this season to follow last year’s example set by veteran Fred VanVleet. If he can make the most of them, the team has a shot at the play-in even in this loaded Western Conference. If he can’t, then the franchise might be moving on.
