The Denver Nuggets overpaid in their recent 4 year, $208 million contract extension for Jamal Murray. Murray, while talented, has yet to make an All-Star team. His injuries have prevented him from earning consistent accolades. Despite his incredible 2020 Bubble performances and key role in the 2023 championship run, his lack of availability remains a concern. Denver had no pressing need to extend him now. They could have waited to see if he could stay healthy for a full season. Locking him down this early seems premature, given the risks involved.
The Nuggets Overpaid Jamal Murray Too Early
Limited Competition in 2025 Free Agency
The Nuggets would have faced little competition for Murray in the 2025 free-agency market. The Brooklyn Nets would have been one of the few teams with the cap space to offer Murray a max contract. By 2025, Sean Marks will finally be rid of Ben Simmons’ massive $40.3 million contract. Simmons, once considered an All-Star, has been hampered by injuries and inconsistent play. Marks will likely avoid signing another injury-prone, borderline All-Star like Murray. The Rockets, Spurs, Pelicans, and Wizards all have the potential to create additional cap space in the 2025 offseason. However, currently, none of these teams have a projected max contract available and there’s a solid shot none of these teams would pursue Murray. Denver could have waited, confident that few teams would compete for Murray’s services at this price.
The decision to sign Murray now might have been driven by internal pressure. Coach Michael Malone has expressed frustration with recent front-office decisions. The Nuggets lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this offseason and haven’t replaced him adequately. Losing key role players could disrupt the team’s chemistry. Denver likely extended Murray to ensure stability and avoid locker room tension. However, this decision came at a cost. They missed the chance to negotiate a more team-friendly deal, which would have given them greater financial flexibility in future seasons.
Murray’s Injuries Raise Concerns
Murray is currently 27, theoretically entering his prime. However, injuries tend to become more frequent as players age. His injury history raises concerns about whether he can stay healthy throughout this contract. Denver might believe Murray’s best years lie ahead, but that belief is a gamble. If Murray misses significant time due to injury, the Nuggets could find themselves regretting this deal. They risk committing significant cap space to a player who may struggle to stay on the court.
The Nuggets operate under a tight budget and have avoided paying luxury taxes. Managing player salaries is crucial for maintaining long-term success. By overpaying Murray, the Nuggets may have repeated the mistake they made with Michael Porter Jr.’s contract. Just because a player is eligible for a deal that consumes 35% of the cap doesn’t mean the team should offer it. Overcommitting to Murray could limit Denver’s ability to make future moves. In an era where depth is critical, this decision could cost them valuable flexibility.
Missing an Opportunity for Better Cap Management
Denver had an opportunity to structure Murray’s contract more wisely. They could have trimmed a few million dollars from the deal and saved cap space for another high-quality role player. The Nuggets’ championship window with Nikola Jokić is unpredictable. Adding depth around their core players would have been a more strategic approach. A more prudent deal for Murray could have ensured the team had financial room to sign key contributors and maintain their status as a contender.
A Risky Bet on Murray’s Future
The Nuggets have decided to gamble on Murray despite his troubling injury history. They are betting that he can remain healthy and deliver performances worthy of his new contract. However, Murray’s lack of consistent availability raises significant doubts about the value of this deal. Denver should focus on maximizing their championship window with Jokić. By locking in Murray at this price, they may have limited their ability to make key moves in the future. Overpaying Murray now could have long-term consequences for the Nuggets success.
