A matchup that some likely would have pegged as a potential Final Four preview before the college basketball season began will instead take place during the Round of 32: No. 1 North Carolina (28-7) vs. No. 9 Michigan State (20-14).
The Spartans were the preseason No. 4 before falling out of the Top 25 for good in late November. They crushed Mississippi State in Round 1, 69-51. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels blasted Wagner, 90-62.
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No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Michigan State Odds
- Spread: North Carolina -4 (-108) • Michigan State +4 (-112)
- Moneyline: North Carolina (-175) • Michigan State (+145)
- Total: Over 140.5 (-108) • Under 140.5 (-112)
Despite the vast difference in records and seeding, UNC is only a 4-point favorite over Michigan State. The Spartans play at a slow pace and feature a top-10 defense, per KenPom, so oddsmakers are expecting those factors to keep this one relatively tight.
With that in mind, the Over/Under seems to be perfectly set at 140.5 points. North Carolina ranks just behind Michigan State in adjusted defensive efficiency, but it also operates at a quick tempo and features a top-20 offense.
UNC vs. Michigan State Prediction
This Spartans defense is obviously the real deal. Michigan State has been stellar when it comes to preventing points inside the arc, and it limited Mississippi State to 6-of-27 shooting from three-point range in Thursday’s victory.
Whether or not it can hold up against UNC’s elite offense is the question we all want the answer to. The Tar Heels are efficient at all three levels, and few teams are better on the glass. Armando Bacot remains a double-double machine.
The Spartans played spoiler last year when they upset No. 2 Marquette in the second round, but they’ll have a much tougher task at hand this time around. Michigan State has kept things close with top-tier competition all season, but it couldn’t find a way to pull out wins against Arizona or Purdue.
Expect a tight game at halftime that North Carolina wins down the stretch.
UNC vs. Michigan State Best Bets
North Carolina -4 (-108) vs Michigan State
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I’m not huge on this spread, but it’s a better value than taking UNC outright at (-175). Tom Izzo knows how to win in March.
Although I expect a close game, North Carolina has a solid chance to cover due to its advantage at the free-throw line. The Spartans shot just 70.7% from the stripe this year — ranking among the bottom third in the country — while the Tar Heels place 47th at a 75.4% rate.
It’s a small margin, but if Michigan State is forced to send North Carolina to the line in the final minutes or seconds, I’m not sure I would trust Sparty to go shot-for-shot.
Under 140.5 (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
These are two of the top 10 defenses in the nation, per KenPom, and Michigan State’s best chance to win this game will come from grinding it out. Those are two major reasons why the Under will be in play at 140.5 points.
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