Arguably the most intriguing 8/9 matchup of the NCAA Tournament is the lid-lifter on Friday’s First Round action. No. 8 Florida Atlantic will take on No. 9 Northwestern.
The Owls will try to prove 2023’s Cinderella run wasn’t a fluke, while the Wildcats look to get to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in school history.
FAU vs Northwestern Betting Odds
All odds are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook as of Mar. 19.
- 🦉 Moneyline: FAU (-150), Northwestern (+125)
- 🐱 Point Spread: -2.5 (-110), +2.5 (-110)
- 🏀 Total: Over 142.0 (-110), Under 142.0 (-110)
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FAU vs Northwestern Prediction
Two factors will loom large in this matchup: Guard play and FAU big Vlad Goldin.
Boo Buie is one of the top guards in the nation and the straw that stirs Northwestern’s drink. When he is hitting shots, the Wildcats win. They have logged wins against Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Mississippi State this season, with Buie leading the way.
The Owls finished almost exactly where they did as they entered the 2023 NCAA Tournament, but a pre-season top 25 ranking and missteps in conference play have them back in the middle of the tourney pack. Their biggest advantages are some of Northwestern’s weaknesses – consistent guard play and size.
If Buie cannot get his shot going, especially from deep, the Cats will be in a world of trouble as one of the highest fouling teams in the men’s tournament. The Owls will run an inside-out game and force the Wildcats to stop Goldin.
FAU vs Northwestern Best Bet
FAU Owls -2.5 Points at bet365 Sportsbook (-110)
Northwestern could be without their own big man Matthew Nicholson (foot). His status helps put a lean on the spread. There is a lot of talk about taking the over with both teams struggling on the defensive end of the court, but there has been extensive studying on betting the first half under for games in the First Four and Round of 64. There is also plenty to back betting the 1H under in games with teams with slower paces.
In this case, both defenses put the under in question, but getting FAU at (-2.5) is more than reasonable, especially if Nicholson is out or limited. At some point, Buie is going to struggle in this tournament. Unfortunately, it may be Friday that he unravels despite everything he has accomplished the past few seasons.
Under 142.0 Points at bet365 Sportsbook (-110)
The First Half Under is at 67.0, which feels right. I doubt 142 is hit if 67 is missed through 20 minutes of play. It is still more realistic to be missed with the game expected to come down to the wire and free throws necessary. Both teams are outside the top 50 in free throw rate.
