Let the Madness begin.
The 2024 NCAA Tournament is about to get underway, starting tonight with two opening-round games. The Wagner Seahawks and the Howard Bison are the first of four games over this two-day period in Dayton (Ohio). The Colorado State and Virginia Cavaliers are the other games in Dayton tonight.
However, the NCAA tournament is not the only college basketball event, as the NIT and CIT also start tonight.
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Wagner Seahawks vs. Howard Bison, 6:40 p.m. ET
The Wagner Seahawks and the Howard Bison kick off the NCAA tournament opening round action in Dayton, Ohio, at 6:40 p.m. (ET) on Tuesday night. This is the second all-time meeting between Wagner and Howard, with the Seahawks picking up a 79-54 win during the 1997-98 season.
Wagner (16-15) is in the NCAA tournament for the second time, with 2003 being the only time the Seahawks have been dancing. Wagner entered the NEC tournament as the No. 6 seed but won three straight to claim the conference’s lone bid. All three of the Seahawks conference wins were true road games, and they defeated top-seeded Merrimack in the championship game.
Wagner is one of the worst offensively efficient teams in college basketball. The Seahawks rank in the bottom 10 of the nation in scoring (63.5), field goal percentage (.392), and two-point field goal percentage (436%).
The Seahawks don’t turn the ball over much, but they also don’t get to the free-throw line often and are a below-average 3-point shooting team.
Defensively, Wagner has put up some solid numbers and is a top-50 team on that end of the court. Wagner ranks sixth in the nation in scoring defense at 62.5 points a game, and the ‘Hawks have held five of their last six games to under 60 points, including four straight.
The Seahawks hold their opponents to 41.8% shooting from the field, as they do a good job defending the 3-point line. But they get pounded up front, as they are quite small. Four players are 6-7 or taller, but none are taller than 6-9.
Wagner is led by junior guards Melvin Council Jr. and Tahron Allen. Council leads the team in all three major categories, averaging 14.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. Meanwhile, Allen is the only other Seahawk who averages double-figures at 10.8 points and 5.4 boards.
Howard (18-16) is dancing for the second straight year and fourth time overall. Howard finished second in the MEAC and then won three straight to win the conference tournament, defeating sixth-seeded Delaware State in the final.
Howard is an average offensive team. The Bison shoot it well from deep and get to the free-throw line often—where they are very good—but turn the ball over way too much (ninth most in the country). The Bison averaged 75.1 points on 45.1% from the field and 8.1 threes at a 37.4% clip.
However, Howard is a below-average defensive team. The Bison don’t have a rim protector, and they foul too much. The Bison, who possess a little size, allow 74.4 points a game and their opponents to 44.6% from the field. However, they do defend the 3-point line decently well.
Three of Howard’s top five players are Power-5 conference transfers, and their roster is littered with D-I transfers. The Bison also have three players who average double figures, led by homegrown 6-4 junior guard Bryce Harris. Harris tops the team with 16.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks while compiling a shooting slash line of .559/.391/.735.
Ohio State transfer Seth Towns is second on the team with 14.6 points and 6.5 rebounds while draining 2.1 threes a game at a 34% clip. Maryland transfer Marcus Dockery is the third Bison who averages double-figures at 13.7 points and tops the squad with 2.7 treys at a 41.2% clip.
First Four Prediction
The winner of this matchup will pick up its first-ever NCAA Tournament victory. Howard is favored by 3.5 points, with the total set at 127.5 points. Howard is -175 on the money line, while Wagner is +145.
Go with Howard. While I have this game as a 2.5-point spread. The Bison have too much offensive talent for the Seahawks to win this game. The Bison have been playing excellent basketball, winning 10 of their last 13.
While Howard is just 1-7 against teams with a winning record, it has narrow losses to Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, and Yale. The Bison are also 3-3 in neutral court games, while Wagner has yet to have one of these games.
Expect Harris to have his way inside against the Seahawks, who allow their opponents to shoot and make over 50% of their two-point field goals. The only way Wagner can keep the game close is by slowing the pace down to a crawl.
I also like the over here with the projected score of around 133 points, although I am not as confident as I am with Howard winning the game.
Pick: Howard -175.
Colorado State Rams vs. Virginia Cavaliers, 9:10 p.m. ET
While the NCAA tournament opening game features a pair of 16 seeds, this contest is between No. 10 seeds as the Colorado State Rams face the Virginia Cavaliers. This marks the programs first-ever meeting.
Colorado State (24-10) earned an at-large bid after finishing sixth in the Mountain West. The Rams reached the conference tournament’s semifinals, but they fell to eventual champion New Mexico. The Rams improved their win total by nine over last season and are in the Big Dance for the second time under Niko Medved. They are in the tournament for the 13th time overall.
Colorado State is a top-50 offensive team that is well-balanced and shoots the ball exceptionally well. CSU is also an excellent passing team that doesn’t turn the ball over. However, the Rams don’t shoot the ball from deep well or get to the free-throw line often.
The Rams use an eight-man rotation, six of whom are seniors. The Rams have four players averaging double-figures, led by point guard Isaiah Stevens, who contributes 16.7 points and 7.0 assists a game. They average 76.4 points on 48.8% shooting from the field and 34.1% from the 3-point line.
CSU ranks in the top third of the nation defensively. The Rams allow 68.5 points on 43.5% field-goal shooting and 33.1% 3-point shooting.
Virginia (23-10) received an at-large bid after finishing third in the ACC, marking their second consecutive NCAA berth and ninth under head coach Tony Bennett. The Cavaliers are in the Big Dance for the 26th time, reaching the Final Four on three occassions and one title.
Virginia is decently efficient, considering the Wahoos rank in the bottom 10 in scoring at 63.6 points a game. While the Cavs don’t shoot the ball well from the field or charity stripe, they are 55th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.3%) and don’t turn the ball over.
Virginia is pretty deep and athletic, though they are pretty young and not that tall. Senior Reece Beekman leads the way with 14.3 points on 45.1% shooting from the field, 3.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. Isaac McKneeley is the only other Cavalier who averages 12.5 points and tops the team with 2.5 treys at a 44.9% clip.
Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Cavaliers are highly active, and their pack-line defense prevents paint touches. The Wahoos allow the third-fewest points in the nation, at 59.3 points a game, as they hold opponents to 40.2% from the field, including 46.6% on two-pointers and 30.4% from long range. The Cavs do a fantastic job protecting the rim and don’t foul.
First Four Prediction
Colorado State is favored by 2.5 points, with the total set at 120.5 points. Colorado State is -155 on the money line, and Virginia is +125.
The line for both the spread and total is spot on. The Rams are the slightly better team, but the Cavs have talent with Beakman, McKneeley, and Ryan Dunn.
Slightly leans toward CSU. So, if you like the Rams here, take them on the money line.
However, the over is the better play as the Wahoos defense has proven that they can be penetrated and they are not a great rebounding team.Virginia has permitted 66 points over the last five games and nearly 63 during ACC play.
Pick: Over 120.5 points (-115)
