Following the Dallas Mavericks’ defeat at the hands of the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals in June 2022, a pivotal question lingered: would the Mavericks opt to retain Jalen Brunson? Brunson had recently concluded a stellar playoff campaign, boasting impressive averages of 21.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, with shooting splits of 47/35/80. Luka Doncic had finally found a bona fide secondary player in Brunson.
Brunson’s contract situation was risky before the 2021-2022 season began. He was heading into free agency the following summer and did not want to leave the Mavericks. So, he approached the team about a four-year, $55 million contract extension before the start of the season and once in January of 2022. Despite his remarkable contributions, the Mavs declined his extension offer.
The Knicks Pulled off the Heist of the Decade
Upon reflection, the offer extended to Brunson appears reasonable. With averages of 16.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.8 assists that season, his request for just under $16 million annually seemed modest. When comparing Brunson’s statistics to players averaging 16 points per game this year and their respective earnings, his demand emerges as a potential steal. Fred VanVleet commanded $20 million annually before securing a lucrative three-year, $120 million contract with the Rockets. Bogdan Bogdanovic also costs nearly $20 million, while Jordan Clarkson earns $13 million. Meanwhile, Brunson’s former teammate, Tim Hardaway Jr., nets $18 million annually.
Initial Reactions to Brunson’s Signing
However, the Mavericks decided they wouldn’t pay him, and Brunson agreed to a four-year $105 million contract with the New York Knicks. Immediately after the signing, the chatter about the Knicks making a horrible signing resurfaced. Bleacher Report and Sports Illustrated graded the signing as a ‘C,’ CBS Sports called it a ‘D+,’ First Things First called it a horrible idea, Stephen A. Smith called out the Knicks for acting like “Brunson was KD,” and the consensus was that the Knicks were overpaying for a player who had played at an All-Star caliber level for two playoff rounds. Brunson heard all the noise and wanted to prove himself as an elite player who could lead a team. And that’s how the Knicks transformed.
“The New York Knicks are a disaster… I’m not going to the garden next year. I won’t go one game… The Knicks are worse than the Dallas Cowboys"
🗣️ Stephen A. Smithpic.twitter.com/rZ5G6TEl5H
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) June 24, 2022
Before this season, the last time the Knicks had back-to-back winning seasons was the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons with Carmelo Anthony, close to 10 years ago. Brunson is on pace to lead them to consecutive winning seasons in the first two years of his deal. He has massively outperformed his contract by any standard, definition, and metric. According to DunksandThrees, Brunson has an estimated plus-minus of 4.8 (top 15 in the league), better than superstars like Jayson Tatum, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, and more. He has an estimated win count of 10.4 (98th percentile in the league), placing him ahead of superstars like Anthony Davis, Paul George, Donovan Mitchell, Curry, Devin Booker, Domantas Sabonis, etc.
Brunson’s Impact on the Knicks
With Brunson on the court, the Knicks rank in the 94th percentile off pts/100 possessions at 122.3 points. His on-off point differential (team scoring with him on the court vs off) is +12.3 points, a 99th percentile ranking. Even though Brunson is a below-average defender, he does his best to help on that side of the ball while torching the opponent through his offense. He is averaging a career-high 27.2 points and is a torchbearer for durability, having played 58 out of a possible 63 games this season. Among the current playoff teams this season, the Knicks are fifth in the league in games lost to injury. Despite all the turbulence the Knicks have endured, they rank fourth in the Eastern Conference with 37 wins.
Jalen Brunson’s Contract
So why is he a steal? This year, Brunson ranks as the 49th highest-paid player in the NBA (by Spotrac). Players ahead of him are Tyler Herro, Jaren Jackson Jr., Sabonis, Jaylen Brown (signed a $300 million extension), Jordan Poole, etc. Despite being arguably a top-15 player in the league, Brunson is making pennies on the dollar. The best part? Brunson and Julius Randle make close to the same money at $26-28 million. The Knicks are positioned as one of the best teams for years to come because their best players are not eligible for extension in the next two to three years. None of their key players hit free agency this year, and the Knicks have the assets to go out and trade for a star to bolster their chances of winning a championship. Knicks fans, maybe say thank you to Dallas the next time they visit MSG?
Brunson’s journey from the Mavericks to the Knicks has been transformative. His impact on the Knicks’ performance and remarkable statistical dominance highlight his value as one of the league’s top players. Despite initial skepticism, Brunson’s contract with the Knicks has proven to be a bargain deal, positioning the team for success in future years. As the Knicks continue to rise in the Eastern Conference standings, it’s clear that Jalen Brunson’s presence on the court is a game-changer.
