The Michigan State Spartans are looking to change the landscape of the Big Ten Conference Tournament with a win over top-seeded Purdue.
Something has to give, as Purdue has won four straight games against Sparty, but Michigan State has won four of five Big Ten Tourney game against the Boilermakers.
Can Zach Edey continue to his run to the Wooden Award, or will the Spartans lean on the coaching of Tom Izzo and upset the top team in the nation?
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Michigan State vs Purdue Prediction, Odds, & Best Bet
Brendan Smith (PUR) Over 5.5 Assists at DraftKings Sportsbook (-140)
Smith is an excellent shooter that has gotten hot in key games (like at Illinois Mar. 5). But the key to Purdue’s offense producing is his passing. The Sophomore has topped this prop line in three of his last five games, so recent production backs his 7.2 assists per game average. In two of those three games, Smith had double-digit assists.
Smith only had three assists in Purdue’s only game against Michigan St. this season, but he traded his assists for a 23-point effort, including 4 3-pointers.
Another wager to consider is the over, as the total has been bet down to 140.5 at multiple sportsbooks. Early on Mar. 15, the line was as high as 143.5. The number dropping as much as it has means there is probably an over-correction after setting the line too high for too long.
The two teams combined for 154 in their single game in West Lafayette, IN. Purdue’s Zach Edey put up 32 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists, and Sparty still kept the game close. It is unlikely that Edey is slowed down after giving Michigan State’s center combo fits in their 22 minutes of play.
The Spartans had to go to a smaller lineup to compete against Edey’s height, open the floor, and hope the offense could stay with Purdue’s (84.2 ppg, 14th in nation).
