The Pacific has long been among the most highly anticipated and strongest divisions in the NBA. This season, it is the only division where every team has a win expectation over .500. It is stacked with high-end talent and multiple championship contenders. There could easily be five playoff teams here. It’s almost impossible to predict who will finish first or last in this division, making it the most fascinating group of the five in the league. So, let’s look at what the sportsbooks made of all this in the Pacific and make our bets on their win totals.
All the lines are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Golden State Warriors – 48.5 wins – OVER
The Warriors executed one of the most fascinating trades of the NBA offseason when they flipped Jordan Poole for Chris Paul. Paul is certainly not the easiest fit for Golden State’s brand of basketball, but moving on from Poole could be an addition-by-subtraction since the team chemistry was a problem all of last season.
Golden State already had one of the best starting fives in the league last season; their bench was the problem. Having Paul as the leader of the second unit, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody’s developments, as well as the addition of Dario Saric, should help fix that problem. The Warriors already had the point differential of a 47-win team last season despite Stephen Curry missing 26 games and Andrew Wiggins missing 45. With better health, chemistry, and depth, this should be a 50-win team.
LA Clippers – 45.5 wins – UNDER
This team has long been difficult to predict, and this season is no different. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard played 56 and 52 regular season games last season, respectively, before being unable to play in the playoffs. Both stars’ ability to stay healthy for an entire season remains a massive question mark. It seems nearly impossible to expect either to play over 60 games now.
It’s hard to believe in the Clippers when that’s the case. Moreover, this team isn’t as stacked as it used to be outside those two. Marcus Morris, Robert Covington, and Nicolas Batum are all aging and can only contribute in limited roles. As good as Russell Westbrook has been for them, he is not the cleanest fit on a team that plays with a traditional center and lacks spacing. They are not as deep as they once were. Unless they land James Harden in a blockbuster trade, they should be worse than a 46-win team as they have been in the past two seasons.
LA Lakers – 47.5 wins – OVER
The Lakers and the Clippers only having a two-win difference in their over/under line is very surprising. After the trade deadline last season, the Lakers went 18-9, with one of the best defensive ratings in the league. They had the point differential of a 52-win team in that span. They did that despite LeBron James missing significant time. Then, they followed that up with an impressive Conference Finals run.
They mostly brought that team back with a minor change of Gabe Vincent replacing Dennis Schroder. Austin Reaves’ meteoric improvement in on-ball playmaking should make up for any age-related decline in James. Reaves will likely take on much of the shot creation burden, keeping James fresher as the season progresses.
This team’s high-end talent level, depth, and two-way ability should be enough to get them to 50 wins. Plus, there might be more trade deadline moves to help them reach another level.
Phoenix Suns – 52.5 wins – UNDER
The Suns arguably have the best big three in the NBA. Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker will be unstoppable, as most teams don’t have the defensive personnel to deal with three elite creators and shot-makers. Their floor is extremely high as long as two of these stars are healthy.
However, question marks about their regular-season ceiling remain. Downgrading from Deandre Ayton to Jusuf Nurkic is worrisome, especially considering Nurkic’s health concerns. Their frontcourt depth is less than ideal, lowering their defensive ceiling in the regular season. They added good rotation pieces like Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen, but they are also not pluses on the defensive end. They may have to play the likes of Jordan Goodwin, Josh Okogie, and Nassir Little more for defensive reasons, which could hurt them offensively.
This lack of frontcourt and two-way depth could be an obstacle in reaching elite regular-season levels. Add Durant and Beal’s tendency to miss a significant amount of time due to injuries every season, and this is likely closer to a 50-win team than a 55-win one.
Sacramento Kings – 44.5 wins – OVER
The Kings are one of the most underrated teams coming into the season. After being the breakout team last season, winning 48 games and being the third seed in the West, the Kings still have the lowest win expectation of any team in this division.
This is especially surprising, considering they brought their entire team back from last season.
Of course, they are unlikely to be as healthy as they were last regular season, and they presumably will not have the highest offensive rating in the history of the NBA again. But almost all of their key players are young and should be better this season. De’Aaron Fox can take another step and establish himself as one of the best players in the NBA. Keegan Murray showed he has more scoring punch on the ball during the NBA Summer League.
The Kings will have the benefit of continuity, team chemistry, and good coaching on their side. They had finished last season as the 24th-best defense in the league. If they can slightly improve on that end and finish around 20th, that should compensate for any potential decline in offensive efficiency.
Perhaps the Kings will not have the surprise factor this year, and teams will figure out how to stop their offensive firepower. Do I believe in this enough to think they will win at least four fewer games than last season? Absolutely not.
