As we inch closer to the start of the 2023-24 NBA regular season with training camps and media days underway, we are getting a better idea of what each team’s goals are and what their rotations look like. This provides us with more in-depth information to make predictions for the upcoming season. It’s time to look at the Southwest Division and make predictions based on their over/under lines for their win totals.
2023-24 NBA Southwest Division Over/Under Win Predictions
All the lines for the Southwest Division are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dallas Mavericks – 44.5 wins – OVER
Despite having a massively underwhelming season last year, the Dallas Mavericks were a solid team when at least one of Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving played. Their net rating of +3.5 per 100 possessions in those situations would make them a 49-win team. The problem was when they weren’t on the court.
Fortunately for Dallas, they will have a full season with both of their offensive superstars. This should be enough to make them close to a top-5 offense in the league.
They also have more depth this season to deal with missed time. Jaden Hardy will be better to help with playmaking duties and Josh Green will have improved to be a solid 3&D contributor. Their defense should rank higher than 23rd -where they finished last year- with the addition of Grant Williams and the subtraction of Christian Wood. 44.5 wins is too low of a line for a team this talented. If Irving is on his best behavior and they stay relatively healthy, this should be an easy over.
Houston Rockets – 31.5 wins – UNDER
This is a common phenomenon that happens before a new season. A team makes a splash in free agency or the trade market and the bookmakers overreact to it and overrate them. This may be what happened here with the Rockets.
To win over 31.5 games, the Rockets would need to win ten more games than last season. Is the combination of Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and some internal development from young players worth ten wins?
In a stacked Western Conference, no.
This team still has a lot of young and inexperienced players, and they have to give them developmental minutes. Most rookies don’t contribute to winning. It’s very difficult to imagine Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore having a positive impact in their first year in the NBA. How much better can we realistically expect Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. to be in their second season?
This team lacks the top-end talent to compete for a play-in spot, especially in the West. Roster-wise, they are likely only above two teams in the West pecking order: Portland and San Antonio. Expecting this young team to be better than the Jazz, Thunder, Clippers, Timberwolves, or Pelicans seems unrealistic. At that point, they are looking at the 13th spot in the West standings. And those teams generally don’t win over 31.5 games.
Memphis Grizzlies – 45.5 wins – OVER
Ja Morant will miss the first 25 games of the season. They lost important depth pieces in Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones. They were underwhelming in the playoffs once again.
All of these are true, but 45.5 wins is still too low for this team. The Grizzlies have been a dominant regular-season team in the past two seasons, even without Morant on the floor.
Memphis was +2.3 per 100 possessions when Morant was off the court last season. That is a 46-win pace for a full season. Plus, they added Marcus Smart who can fill in for both Brooks’ defensive and Jones’ playmaking roles.
The Grizzlies have continuity, a fantastic big three, and an excellent regular-season coach in Taylor Jenkins. They play hard and execute well. Even if they struggle offensively at times, they always have their elite defense to hang their hat on. They were the second-best defense in the NBA last regular season, and they have a chance to be even better on that end in Morant’s absence.
Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. should both be better offensively as well. With everyone available, this team is likely close to a 55-win team. Considering injuries and potential off-court issues, it should still be above 45.5 wins.
New Orleans Pelicans – 44.5 wins – UNDER
This is the hardest line to bet in the Southwest division, possibly the conference. As always, there are simply too many uncertainties with the New Orleans Pelicans. How many games will Zion Williamson play? When and in what shape will Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado, and Larry Nance Jr. return from their injuries?
In full health, this team has established a clear level above 44.5 wins. They should be able to get there if Williamson plays over 60 games. Can we count on that? Considering he has done that only once in his four seasons in the NBA, probably not.
The rest of this team doesn’t fit perfectly. Jonas Valanciunas isn’t the ideal center next to Williamson. They don’t have enough shooting with Murphy slated to miss a significant amount of time. They don’t have a true point guard. CJ McCollum is on the decline.
Williamson and Brandon Ingram could still carry this team to this over 44.5 wins but there are just too many holes and too much downside risk with the Pelicans. It’s way easier to imagine this team winning 33 games than 53 games, so betting the under makes more sense.
San Antonio Spurs – 28.5 wins – UNDER
The Spurs won 22 games last season but had the point differential of a 19-win team. This may understate their performance as they tanked to finish the season. And they got their reward for it in Victor Wembanyama.
Bookmakers may have gotten too excited by the Wembanyama hype train. 19-year-old rookies generally don’t contribute to winning, even if they are rightfully heralded as generational prospects. They will also likely be extremely cautious with him, limiting his games and minutes. He will show plenty of flashes, especially on the defensive end, but expecting him to add over 7 wins for any team is unrealistic.
There will presumably be internal development from Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, and if they take significant steps forward, they could be competitive. However, there are just too many holes on this team. Tre Jones as the starting point guard and Zach Collins as the starting center are two of the worst starters in the league.
There will also be developmental minutes for Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, and Jeremy Sochan. They will likely not be positive NBA players to begin the season. The lack of offensive creation, shotmaking, and passing on this roster makes it almost a certainty that they will be an awful offensive team.
They probably don’t want to win too many games either. Getting another high lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft is far more valuable than winning a few extra games this season. This should push them to the bottom of the Western Conference. Another win total in the mid-20s feels right.
Let’s see if these predictions come true for the Southwest Division.
