Interconference WNBA action on Friday evening as the Connecticut Sun invade Mortgage Matchup Center to battle the Phoenix Mercury. Connecticut comes in with the worst record in the Eastern Conference at 6-18, but they are off a 90-87 home win over Portland. Phoenix enters this game off a 104-100 road loss to Minnesota, dropping them to 8-17 on the year. Phoenix took two of the three meetings last year, including the home meeting, 82-66. Let’s dive in to see how this Sun vs Mercury contest plays out.
Sun vs Mercury: Prediction, Preview And Odds For July 17th
Current Odds
Phoenix -5.5; Over/Under 163.5
Connecticut Sun Team Preview
Connecticut enters this matchup with a bit of relief after edging out Portland in a 90‑87 win, snapping a two‑game slide. Brittney Griner delivered 20 points and controlled the paint, while Olivia Nelson‑Ododa added 16 with eight made free throws. Leïla Lacan scored 14 and handled pressure well, and Diamond Miller chipped in eight with timely perimeter work. The Sun improved to 6‑18, but they are just 2‑8 on the road. Their defense held late, but turnovers nearly cost them. Connecticut must carry that urgency into Phoenix, especially against a team that has beaten them twice in recent meetings.
Connecticut averages 79.8 points per game and shoots 43.5 percent from the field, though its 27.6 percent from deep remains a major obstacle. Griner leads the team at 13.9 points and 5.6 rebounds, while Lacan adds 12.5 with strong playmaking. Aneesah Morrow contributes 10.5 points and 9.4 rebounds, though Morrow is listed as questionable and has missed the last four games. Defensively, the Sun allows 86.4 points per game, and opponents shoot 45.9 percent. To win here, Connecticut must protect the ball, generate cleaner looks, and avoid giving Phoenix transition chances.
The Sun’s inconsistency has stemmed from uneven spacing and stretches of stagnant offense. Their win over Portland showed how effective they can be when Griner anchors early possessions and Lacan pushes tempo. Nelson‑Ododa’s interior efficiency has also helped stabilize scoring. However, Connecticut struggles to close quarters, and opponents often exploit their perimeter gaps. Their road record reflects those issues, and Phoenix’s pace will test their discipline. The Sun must rebound well, limit fouls, and maintain structure to stay competitive.
Connecticut enters this matchup needing a composed performance. Phoenix has won two of the last three meetings, including an 82‑66 home win last season. Breaking that trend requires sharper execution and more consistent defensive pressure. The Sun must avoid early deficits and force Phoenix into longer possessions. Their offense can produce runs, but they must sustain rhythm for four quarters. If they defend with purpose and avoid turnovers, they can challenge Phoenix’s momentum.
Phoenix Mercury Team Preview
Phoenix returns home after a 104‑100 loss to Minnesota, a game defined by strong offense but costly defensive lapses. Kahleah Copper scored 26 and hit three threes, while Alyssa Thomas posted 19 points with 12 assists and eight rebounds. Monique Akoa Makani added 17 with efficient shooting, and DeWanna Bonner contributed 17 with nine boards. Phoenix fell to 8‑17 and has now dropped four straight. Their offense kept pace, but Minnesota’s late execution proved decisive. The Mercury must tighten defensive rotations and avoid surrendering early scoring bursts.
Phoenix averages 83.3 points per game and shoots 43.8 percent from the field, including 33.0 percent from deep. Copper leads the team at 20.5 points, while Thomas adds 14.4 with 8.0 assists and 6.9 rebounds. Bonner contributes 9.0 points, and Akoa Makani adds 10.6 with strong perimeter accuracy. Defensively, Phoenix allows 87.3 points per game and opponents shoot 46.6 percent, including a league‑worst 37.5 percent from deep. To win here, the Mercury must protect the arc and avoid giving Connecticut clean mid‑range looks.
Phoenix’s recent struggles have centered on defense. Their last two games have seen opponents score 104 and 106 points, and rotations have been slow. Copper continues to produce, and Thomas’ playmaking remains elite, but Phoenix often loses momentum when defensive pressure fades. Bonner’s rebounding helps stabilize possessions, yet the Mercury struggle to close quarters. Their home record sits at 3‑9, and Connecticut’s interior size will test their discipline. Phoenix must control pace, limit fouls, and generate stops to regain footing.
The Mercury enters this matchup needing urgency. They’ve lost four straight and must avoid another slow start. Connecticut’s offense has been inconsistent, but their interior strength can create problems if Phoenix doesn’t defend with purpose. The Mercury must push tempo, attack early, and avoid long droughts. If they rebound well and maintain defensive intensity, they can protect home court and halt their slide.
Sun vs Mercury Prediction
Phoenix -5.5 fits the matchup because Connecticut’s road form has been consistently poor. The Sun have gone 2‑8 away from home, and they have been outscored by 10.9 points per game in those contests. Phoenix hasn’t been sharp at home, but their scoring has held up, as they’ve averaged 86 points in their own building. Connecticut’s offense tends to tighten on the road, and their pace often slows when trailing. They average just 77.4 points per game on the road. Phoenix should generate cleaner looks and control tempo more effectively. With Connecticut struggling in hostile environments, the number leans toward the Mercury.
The Over 163.5 aligns with how both defenses have performed. Connecticut has allowed 88.3 points per game on the road, and Phoenix has given up 89.4 per game overall. Phoenix home games have averaged 175.4 points, and Connecticut’s last four road games have averaged 175.5 in regulation. Both teams have shown defensive volatility, and long scoring bursts are common. Phoenix usually plays faster at home, and Connecticut’s defense often breaks down in transition. The total reflects the pace and recent scoring trends, making the Over a strong fit.
This matchup supports a side‑and‑total pairing. Phoenix -5.5 leans on home scoring strength, Connecticut’s road issues, and the overall flow of the matchup. The Over 163.5 matches recent scoring patterns, defensive inconsistency, and the pace both teams prefer. Phoenix should dictate tempo, and Connecticut should contribute enough to keep the total moving. Together, the plays complement each other and match how this matchup typically unfolds.
Final Predictions: Phoenix -5.5 & Over 163.5
Featured Image: David Butler II-Imagn Images
