There is a little Western Conference WNBA action on Monday evening as the Phoenix Mercury invade the Target Center to tangle with the Minnesota Lynx. The Mercury are off a horrible 106-58 loss to Las Vegas on the road to fall to 8-16 on the year. Minnesota is tied for the best record in the league with Las Vegas at 17-6, and they are off a 90-85 home win over New York. The Lynx have taken the first two meetings this year, both on the road. Can they make it three in a row?
Mercury vs Lynx: Prediction, Preview & Odds For July 13th
Current Odds
Minnesota -12.5; Over/Under 168
Phoenix Mercury Team Notes
Phoenix arrives in Minneapolis searching for answers after one of the worst losses in league history. Their 106‑58 defeat to Las Vegas wasn’t just lopsided — it was the third‑largest margin ever recorded, and it came only weeks after Phoenix beat the Aces by 30 on the same floor. The Mercury have now dropped three straight and averaged only 71 points during that stretch. Alyssa Thomas managed seven points and six boards, while Kahleah Copper scored nine on 4‑of‑14 shooting. DeWanna Bonner and Monique Akoa Makani combined for just 15. Natasha Mack remains out, further thinning their interior rotation. Phoenix must stabilize emotionally before anything else.
The Mercury averages 82.6 points per game and shoots 43.3 percent from the field, but their recent form has been far below those marks. Copper leads the team at 20.3 points per game, while Thomas adds 14.2 with 6.8 rebounds and 7.9 assists. Bonner contributes 8.7 points, and Akoa Makani adds 10.2 with improved perimeter accuracy. Phoenix allows 86.6 points per game, and opponents shoot 46.3 percent, including a league‑worst 37.4 percent from deep. To compete here, they must protect the arc and avoid surrendering early scoring bursts.
Phoenix’s issues run deeper than shooting. Their defensive rotations have been slow, and opponents have repeatedly exploited gaps in transition. The loss to Las Vegas highlighted how quickly things unravel when their spacing collapses and turnovers mount. Copper remains their most reliable scorer, but she has faced heavy defensive pressure during this losing streak. Thomas continues to facilitate, yet Phoenix struggles to convert her playmaking into efficient offense. Without Mack, rebounding has suffered, and opponents have controlled the interior. The Mercury must slow Minnesota’s pace and avoid giving up second‑chance points.
This matchup demands a sharper response from Phoenix. They’ve fallen to 8‑16 and look nothing like the group that reached the Finals last season. Minnesota has already beaten them twice, both on the road, and now the Lynx return home with momentum. Phoenix must start with defensive intensity and avoid another early collapse. Their offense needs cleaner possessions, more movement, and better shot selection. If they can settle quickly and avoid long droughts, they can keep this competitive. But execution must improve dramatically.
Minnesota Lynx Team Notes
Minnesota enters at 17‑6 after a 90‑85 win over New York, a game defined by timely shooting and strong guard play. Kayla McBride scored 25 and hit five threes, while Olivia Miles returned from a brief absence and delivered 23 points with seven made free throws. Courtney Williams added 12, and Natasha Howard posted 16 with nine rebounds. The Lynx controlled key stretches despite New York’s pressure and closed with poise. Minnesota has now won two straight and continues to match Las Vegas for the league’s best record. They’ve already beaten Phoenix twice, including a 111‑77 blowout on June 1st.
Minnesota averages 90.0 points per game and shoots 47.7 percent from the field, including a league‑best 37.7 percent from deep. Miles leads the team at 18.7 points per game, while McBride adds 16.2 with strong perimeter volume. Howard contributes 16.9 points and 8.1 rebounds, and Williams adds 15.8 with steady mid‑range production. The Lynx allow only 80.9 points per game, and hold opponents to 40.8 percent shooting, both top‑two marks in the league. Minnesota must maintain defensive pressure and avoid giving Phoenix clean catch‑and‑shoot looks.
Minnesota’s strength lies in balance. Their spacing forces opponents into difficult rotations, and their ball movement creates high‑quality shots. The win over New York showed how dangerous they are when McBride heats up early and Miles controls the tempo. Howard continues to anchor the interior, and their rebounding advantage often dictates pace. The Lynx also defend the arc well, limiting opponents to 31.4 percent from deep. Their challenge here is avoiding complacency against a struggling Phoenix team. If they maintain intensity, they can control the matchup.
Minnesota enters this game with confidence and a clear stylistic edge. They’ve already handled Phoenix twice, and their offense has been consistent regardless of venue. The Lynx must start fast, push pace, and force Phoenix into uncomfortable defensive rotations. Their depth gives them flexibility, and their shooting often breaks games open. If Minnesota protects the ball and continues to rebound well, they can extend their winning streak. Execution and focus should carry them through.
Mercury vs Lynx Prediction
Phoenix +12.5 is playable because the situation favors a sharper response. Minnesota is coming off an emotional win over New York, and teams often flatten a bit after high‑energy victories. Phoenix also carries motivation after losing by 34 in the last meeting and by 48 in their most recent game. That kind of embarrassment usually produces urgency, especially from veteran groups. The Mercury have dropped three straight, but this number reflects their worst moments. With Minnesota in a letdown spot and Phoenix seeking payback, the underdog has value.
The Over 168 fits the scoring profile of this matchup. Minnesota’s defense has slipped, allowing 88.5 points per game in their last four. Their offense has stayed strong, averaging 87.2 in their last five and 91.4 at home. Phoenix has struggled, but they still play at a pace that creates quick possessions. The first two meetings produced 172 and 188 points, and both games featured long scoring bursts. Minnesota’s shooting at home usually elevates totals, and Phoenix should push tempo after two ugly outings. The number aligns with a faster game.
This matchup sets up well for a side‑and‑total pairing. Phoenix +12.5 leans on motivation, situational value, and Minnesota’s potential letdown spot. The Over 168 ties directly to recent scoring trends, home‑court pace, and the history between these teams. Minnesota should generate offense, and Phoenix should respond with more aggression after consecutive blowouts. Together, the plays complement each other and match how this matchup typically unfolds.
Final Predictions: Phoenix +12.5 & Over 168
Featured Image: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images
