It’s on to Game 4 of the NBA Finals, and we will see the San Antonio Spurs grapple with the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks won the first two games in this series, which were played in San Antonio, but the Spurs bounced back in Game 3 with a 115-111 win. Can the Spurs build off that victory? Will the Knicks grab a 3-1 series lead? Continue reading to see my Spurs vs Knicks prediction.
Spurs vs Knicks Game 4: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Current Odds
New York -2; Over/Under 216.5
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio enters Game 4 with renewed confidence after a win that changed the tone of the series. The Spurs attacked early, pushed the pace, and finally matched New York’s physicality on both ends. Victor Wembanyama delivered a dominant 32‑point performance, showing how quickly he adjusts to playoff pressure and how dangerous he becomes when he dictates the tempo. Stephon Castle added 23 points and continued his strong postseason run, while Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie provided timely shooting. San Antonio is now 13-8 in the postseason and 7-3 on the road, proving they can win in any environment.
Defensively, the Spurs were sharper and more connected than in the first two games. They held New York to 47 second‑half points and forced several late‑clock possessions that stalled the Knicks’ rhythm. Their communication improved, and their switching was far more precise. Wembanyama anchored the interior with eight rebounds, six assists, two steals, and three blocks, while the perimeter group contested shots without over‑helping. San Antonio has allowed 105.3 points per game in the postseason, but their Game 3 execution showed a higher defensive ceiling when rotations are crisp.
Offensively, San Antonio leaned on balance and pace. They shot 46 percent from the field and hit 12 3-pointers, with Castle and Wembanyama driving most of the pressure. Dylan Harper added 13 points off the bench and gave them needed energy in the second half. The Spurs average 113.8 points per game in the playoffs and continue to thrive when they move the ball early in possessions. Their spacing improved in Game 3, and their 28 assists reflected a more decisive approach. When they avoid stagnant stretches, their offense becomes difficult to contain.
For the Spurs to even the series, they must maintain the same urgency and discipline that fueled their Game 3 victory. San Antonio’s offense works best when it attacks before New York’s defense sets, and their defense must again limit second‑chance points. San Antonio also needs to control turnovers and avoid the long scoring droughts that hurt them earlier in the series. If they replicate their communication, pace, and shot selection from Monday, they can put real pressure on the Knicks and send the series back to Texas tied.
New York Knicks
New York enters Game 4 looking to regain control after a loss that snapped their 13‑game postseason winning streak. Jalen Brunson scored 32 points and kept the Knicks within striking distance, while OG Anunoby added 28 with strong shooting. Josh Hart contributed 16 points and nine rebounds, but New York struggled to maintain rhythm after a strong second quarter. The Knicks’ offense stalled in the second half, producing only 47 points as possessions became slower and more isolation‑heavy. They remain 14-3 in the postseason and still hold a 2-1 series lead.
Defensively, New York had difficulty containing San Antonio’s pace and spacing. The Knicks allowed 39 made field goals and 12 threes, and their rotations were a step slow in several key stretches. The Knicks have allowed 101.3 points per game in the postseason, but Game 3 exposed issues with switching and closeouts. Their interior defense also struggled to handle Wembanyama’s assertiveness. New York must tighten its communication and avoid the breakdowns that gave San Antonio clean looks late in the shot clock.
Offensively, the Knicks still have strong production across their core. Brunson leads the team at 26.9 points per game, while Anunoby adds 19.9 with elite efficiency. Karl‑Anthony Towns and Hart continue to provide steady scoring and rebounding, and Mikal Bridges remains a reliable secondary option. New York averages 117.6 points per game in the playoffs and shoots 49.9 percent from the field, but the team’s ball movement dipped in Game 3. The Knicks need quicker decisions and more off‑ball activity to avoid the stagnation that slowed them in the second half.
For the Knicks to bounce back, they must reestablish their defensive identity and avoid long stretches of isolation offense. Their best moments come when they pressure the ball, force turnovers, and run off misses. Offensively, they need sharper spacing and more decisive actions to keep the Spurs from loading the paint. A big game from Towns would also help. The Knicks have been excellent at home this postseason, and a return to their usual pace and discipline could help them regain control of the series before heading back to Texas.
Spurs vs Knicks Predictions
New York -2 fits because this matchup should swing back toward the Knicks’ preferred rhythm, especially after they let Game 3 slip late. Their offense usually responds well after a stagnant performance, and their spacing tends to sharpen when they return to decisive ball movement. San Antonio’s surge in Game 3 created urgency on both sides, but New York has consistently answered losses with cleaner execution throughout the postseason. With the series tightening and adjustments already in place, the Knicks have a strong path to regaining control and covering a short number in a game that should feature steadier scoring.
The Over 216.5 also aligns with how this matchup projects to unfold. Both teams have shown they can generate long scoring runs when pace increases, and the offensive talent on the floor makes extended droughts less likely in a bounce‑back scenario. New York’s shooting typically improves at home, and San Antonio has pushed tempo more aggressively as the series has progressed. With both sides capable of efficient stretches and each team finding mismatches in earlier games, the total has room to climb if the pace settles into a more open flow.
The combination of New York’s need to reassert control and the offensive rhythm both teams found in Game 3 makes the Knicks‑and‑Over pairing a natural fit. New York should play with more urgency, and San Antonio’s confidence on offense keeps the game from slowing into a grind. That blend usually produces cleaner possessions, quicker decisions and more scoring opportunities on both ends. If the pace holds and the Knicks regain their typical efficiency, this matchup leans toward a higher total with New York doing enough to cover.
Final Predictions: New York -2 & Over 216.5
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