Monday evening, NBA Finals action, and we will see the San Antonio Spurs grapple with the New York Knicks, as the scene shifts to Madison Square Garden. This is Game 3 with the Knicks holding a commanding 2-0 lead in the series after taking both games in San Antonio. The Knicks won Friday’s game by a score of 105-104. Can the Spurs get back into the series?
Spurs vs Knicks Game 3: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Current Odds
New York -2.5: Over/Under 216
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio enters Game 3 in a difficult position after dropping both home games, including a crushing one‑point loss in Game 2. The Spurs had a chance to steal the win late, but Victor Wembanyama committed a costly turnover with under 10 seconds left and then missed the potential game‑winner at the buzzer. He still finished with 29 points, but the final sequence overshadowed an otherwise strong performance. De’Aaron Fox added 20 points, and Stephon Castle continued his steady postseason play, with 14 points. The Spurs are now 12–8 in the playoffs and must rely on their solid 6–3 road record to stay alive.
Defensively, San Antonio has competed well but hasn’t delivered enough timely stops. They allowed 105 points in Game 2 and forced 12 turnovers, yet New York’s late‑clock execution again proved difficult to contain. Wembanyama remains the anchor with elite rim protection, and Julian Champagnie has provided solid perimeter defense. The Spurs allow 105.0 points per game in the postseason, but their biggest issue has been closing possessions and limiting second‑chance points. Their defensive structure is sound, but they need sharper execution in high‑leverage moments.
Offensively, the Spurs continue to rely on balanced scoring. They average 113.7 points per game in the playoffs and shoot 46.3 percent from the field. Wembanyama leads the team at 23.6 points per game, while Castle adds 18.8 with strong downhill pressure. Fox remains a steady scoring option, and Dylan Harper has emerged as a valuable spark off the bench. San Antonio’s spacing improved in Game 2, but turnovers and late‑game stagnation prevented them from closing the deal. They need more consistent ball movement to challenge New York’s defense.
For the Spurs to climb back into the series, they must clean up their late‑game execution and reduce the mistakes that cost them in Game 2. Their offense works best when they play with pace and avoid long stretches of isolation. Defensively, they must limit New York’s second‑chance points and keep Brunson from controlling tempo. San Antonio has been a strong road team, and they need that version of themselves to show up in Game 3. If they rebound with force and maintain offensive rhythm, they can make this matchup competitive again.
New York Knicks
New York returns home with a commanding 2–0 lead after surviving a wild finish in Game 2 for this Knicks vs Spurs series. The Knicks pulled out a 105–104 win on the road, capped by Jalen Brunson sinking the go‑ahead free throw with 9.5 seconds left. That moment came seconds after a critical turnover, and New York’s defense held firm on the final possession. Brunson finished with 20 points despite another physical night, while Karl‑Anthony Towns (21 points & 13 boards) and Mikal Bridges (20 points & six assists) had strong games as well. The Knicks have now won 13 straight playoff games and continue to show poise in every late‑game situation.
New York’s defense again shaped the outcome. They held San Antonio to 40 second‑half points and forced 16 turnovers, including several in key moments. The Knicks are allowing only 100.4 points per game in the postseason and have consistently taken away clean perimeter looks. Josh Hart’s rebounding and Bridges’ perimeter pressure have been major factors, and the team’s rotations have remained sharp. Their ability to close defensive possessions has kept opponents from building momentum. New York’s 17.6‑point average scoring margin shows how dominant they’ve been across four rounds.
Offensively, the Knicks continue to rely on balance and efficiency. They average 118.1 points per game in the playoffs and shoot 50.1 percent from the field. Brunson leads the way at 26.6 points per game, while OG Anunoby and Towns provide steady scoring inside and out. Bridges has been a reliable player in the 2026 NBA Finals, and Landry Shamet has given them valuable bench shooting. New York’s ball movement has been consistent, with 26.4 assists per game, and their spacing has created clean looks even when the pace slows. Their half‑court execution remains one of their biggest strengths.
For the Knicks to take a 3–0 lead, they must avoid early lulls and continue to control the tempo. Their defense has carried them, but they need sharper offensive possessions to prevent San Antonio from dictating the pace. Rebounding will again be crucial, especially against a Spurs team that thrives on second‑chance chances. If New York maintains its defensive discipline and keeps turnovers manageable, it’ll be in a strong position to extend their series lead at home, where they’ve gone 6–1 this postseason.
Spurs vs Knicks Predictions
Game 3 is a must-win for the Spurs, so San Antonio +2.5 makes sense in this spot because desperation usually sharpens a team’s focus. Plus, the Spurs have already shown they can handle road environments with a 6–3 postseason record away from home. New York hasn’t played at Madison Square Garden since May 21st, and long gaps often lead to uneven early stretches. San Antonio has also responded well after tight losses, and their pace tends to stabilize when they’re not chasing the game. With the series on the line and the Spurs playing with urgency, this number gives them enough room to stay inside the spread in a slower, grind‑heavy matchup.
The Under 216 also fits the way this series has unfolded. The first two games produced only 209 and 200 total points, and both teams leaned heavily on half‑court defense. New York has allowed just 100.4 points per game at home in the postseason, and their rotations have tightened even further during this 13‑game win streak. San Antonio has been one of the league’s best defensive teams all year, and their length has forced long possessions throughout the series. With both sides comfortable slowing the pace and limiting transition chances, another low‑scoring game is the more likely script.
The combination of San Antonio’s urgency and the defensive tone of the series makes the Spurs‑and‑Under pairing a natural fit. The Spurs should lean into controlled possessions to avoid turnovers, and New York has consistently answered with patient, methodical offense at home. That rhythm usually keeps scoring suppressed and prevents either team from creating extended runs. If Game 3 follows the same defensive pattern as the first two, the total stays manageable, and the Spurs remain competitive enough to stay within the number.
Final Predictions: San Antonio +2.5 & Under 216
Featured Image: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
