Pitt vs. North Carolina has been a competitive series since Jeff Capel took over at Pittsburgh. The Panthers beat the Tar Heels twice in the 2022-23 season, and North Carolina was left out of the tournament. Last year, North Carolina beat Pitt twice, including in the ACC Tournament semifinals, ending Pitt’s season. One more win would have put the Panthers in the NCAA tournament.
Pitt and North Carolina play twice this season: January 28th and February 8th. Both teams have struggled as of late, with the Tar Heels barely surviving against Boston College, while Pitt recently lost four straight games. Both teams have a tough stretch of games, but no game is more important to a bubble team than a game against another. It may not be an exaggeration to say that if one team loses both games, their chance at a tournament berth may be over.
Pitt vs. North Carolina: 2 Games May Decide Tournament Berth
Pitt Wins Both vs. North Carolina
In the non-conference, Pitt has one of the best resumes in the ACC and avoided a bad loss. Their NET ranking still sits at 35, a good spot to be in for a bubble team. Their six losses are all Quad One (Q1), but they’ve only amassed one Q1 victory. A 4-6 record in Q1/Q2 games is mediocre (a record of .500 will almost always earn you a tournament berth if you play as many Q1/Q2 games as Pitt has). Beating North Carolina twice would add two Q1/Q2 wins to their resume since North Carolina has a NET ranking of 40 that will likely stay under the top 75 threshold. Eight or nine Q1/Q2 wins would put Pitt in the Tournament without a bad loss, so achieving at least six by February 8th would be huge.
The Pitt vs. North Carolina series would majorly affect the Tar Heels’ chances of making the tournament. Like Pitt, they’ve avoided the bad loss. However, North Carolina is 5-8 in Q1/Q2, so the loss would already drop them to 10 losses in that category. That’s dangerous territory with two games against Duke sandwiched in the rest of the season, plus a game at Clemson. The opportunity for wins is there, but this team will not make the tournament with 12+ losses, so they have to find a way to steal some games. Their only other chance for a Q1/Q2 win is at Florida State. 6-13 or 7-12 in Q1/Q2 probably wouldn’t be enough. North Carolina has to find a way to avoid this scenario.
North Carolina Wins Both
If North Carolina can win both matchups, they would be up to seven Q1/Q2 wins already. Beat Florida State and steal one other game, and the Tar Heels would be a lock without a bad loss. The wins over Pitt will be Q1/Q2 wins throughout the rest of the season, regardless of the outcome. Everything about Pitt that I said above can be put down here. It would be two quality wins that the Tar Heels desperately need.
Pitt would struggle to battle out of the hole with two losses. Would they be bad losses? No. But the same narrative that has plagued North Carolina all season would plague the Panthers: why can’t they win a big game? They’ve certainly come close, having led in the second half of losses against Wisconsin, Louisville, and Clemson. Flip one or two of those around, and this wouldn’t even be an issue. However, as they sit now, Pitt is firmly on the bubble and needs to rack up quality wins. While they don’t have the quality matchups that North Carolina has, Pitt has seven Q1/Q2 games remaining. They could redeem themselves with two losses, but it would likely take victories in each of the other five games. With the way Pitt has played this season, that seems unlikely.
Best Scenario for the ACC: They Split
Both teams would love to cement their spot as a tournament team with a couple of great wins, but they would inevitably be giving their opponent a major blow. A split in the Pitt vs. North Carolina series, preferably if the home team wins both matchups, then both teams have a chance to bounce back and make the tournament. This scenario would likely keep both teams near the bubble for most of the season, but it would keep both teams in the field. The ACC doesn’t have the luxury of the SEC, where at least 11 or 12 teams will get into the tournament. Each team the ACC can get into it will be a blessing. Regardless of where both teams find themselves in two weeks, these two matchups can decide both of their fates. It may not be a rivalry, but these teams continue to play meaningful games.
Prediction
Guards will be the focus, but frontcourt play will decide these matchups. Whichever team can control rebounding margins and get quality scoring from their frontcourt will win.
- January 28th: Pitt 81, North Carolina 75
- February 8th: North Carolina 78, Pitt 77
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