The North Carolina Tar Heels appeared to have everything figured out. They got hot behind freshman Ian Jackson’s rapid ascension. They beat down SMU and California while managing to escape with wins at Notre Dame and NC State. Winning on the road is never easy, so escaping is all that matters.
Since then, they have now lost two of their last three games, and their win came against the worst team in the conference: Boston College. North Carolina escaped with a 102-96 win in overtime against the Eagles. It wasn’t exactly a showing that provided any confidence moving forward. So the real question remains: are there any problems that can be fixed to save their season?
North Carolina Escaped, But the Tar Heels Have Some Problems
The Trimble Question
Nobody wants to blame a certain player, but it’s impossible not to notice how the team plays with Seth Trimble. He missed three games following their win over UCLA, and the team went 2-1 (the loss to Louisville was worse at the time). He returned and slowly worked back into play, only scoring 16 points on 17 shots in their next three wins. Oddly enough, in the recent slide, Trimble has provided more offense, scoring 31 points on 28 shots. It seems like the more he shoots and plays, the worse the team does. North Carolina escaped against Boston College, but he played more minutes (43) than anybody else on the team.
Trimble isn’t the problem, but it is a troubling trend. The bigger problem is the lack of minutes being played by the frontcourt. North Carolina started four guards against Boston College. Guards combined for 176 minutes against the Eagles out of a possibly 225. Guards have been the staple of this team, but playing them to such a large extent is dangerous. The Tar Heels struggled to beat the Eagles with this lineup but it revealed that there may be a frontcourt problem in Chapel Hill.
Continued Defensive Struggles
North Carolina may have escaped Chapel Hill with a win over Boston College, but their defense needs to step up. Remarkably, their defense was better without Trimble, who is supposed to be an elite defender. Again, that falls back to playing four guards at an incredibly high rate. RJ Davis is hardly a lockdown defender, and Ian Jackson is a prolific scorer but a defensive liability at times. Why not put some frontcourt defenders out there to provide some defensive help? Couldn’t Jae’lyn Withers play more than three minutes and create a matchup problem for Boston College?
The starting guards for Boston College scored 60 points. That shows a weakness in guard play. Until Hubert Davis recognizes the defensive issues with this particular lineup, this team will not make any run in the postseason, if they even make it. After their game on Saturday, their KenPom defensive rating sits at 48. This is an improvement, but following the 96-point outburst by KenPom’s 171st-ranked offense shows that they haven’t made much progress.
North Carolina Escaped: Now What?
North Carolina dominated in every way on Saturday except for the score. Boston College exposed a bad defense. The Tar Heels can still push to make the NCAA Tournament. However, they will not make the NCAA Tournament playing the brand of basketball they are currently. North Carolina escaped and avoided the bad loss, but it’s a sign of things to come without a change.
