North Carolina’s start to the season has been nothing short of a disappointment. Hubert Davis has struggled to lead this team to big wins. They’ve even struggled to beat lesser opponents, including a home win against a poor Georgia Tech team by only three points. Seth Trimble, a junior guard, started early in the season but suffered an injury that has kept him out of their past three contests. Enter Ian Jackson. North Carolina will need all hands on deck, but Ian Jackson’s ascension gives them plenty to look forward to. The real question remains: Can he lead them to the Big Dance and beyond in March?
Ian Jackson’s Ascension: What it Means for UNC
Instant Scoring Boost
Early in the season, Jackson was only receiving between 12-20 minutes every game. He still managed to score in double figures three times in that stretch. With their struggling, his playing time grew along with his scoring. Since the injury to Seth Trimble, his scoring has reached an elite level. He has averaged 25 points per game in his last four contests, adding 4.75 rebounds and an assist per game. The Tar Heels are 3-1 in that stretch.
They picked up their best win of the season in Jackson’s breakout performance against UCLA. However, Trimble played in that game. If Jackson’s ascension can continue with the return of Trimble, they can beat some of the best teams in the country. Adding 25 points per game to an already elite offense is deadly, no matter how porous the defense is.
Proven Big Game Ability
The ACC often holds few opportunities for key wins, especially with the conference’s early-season struggles in 2024-25. North Carolina has played five teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this season. Jackson has averaged 15.4 points per game in those contests while only playing an average of 22.8 minutes per game. A start averages about 32 minutes per game, but some guards can play north of 35 minutes. If he continues that trend, that scoring ratio would put him over 23 points per game playing starter minutes.
North Carolina needs to pick up key wins down the stretch. Their 1-6 record against Quad One (Q1) opponents in the NET rankings will not get them into the tournament. They have multiple matchups against both Duke and Pitt, a rare combination of both luck and misfortune. They are arguably the only team that wants to see those opponents at least four times combined this season. Jackson’s ascension gives North Carolina the opportunity to win multiple Q1 contests to cement its resume for the Big Dance.
NBA Talent
Statistics are a wonderful way of describing a given player’s impact, but they never tell the whole story. Cooper Flagg is only averaging 17.4 points per game this season, but he makes a huge difference on the floor that numbers cannot begin to quantify. Jackson has a different set of skills: he can make any shot over any player at any time.
Ian Jackson vs Notre Dame
27 PTS (11-18 FG) 🔥
Fourth consecutive 20+ point game 📈 pic.twitter.com/Fz7tt6Tg9Q
— Tar Heel Tapes (@TarHeelTapes) January 4, 2025
If Jackson wants to shoot it, he will get the shot off. He started scorching hot against Notre Dame, making him virtually unguardable. People say that guards win in March. Jackson has the capability to take over a game and win it. RJ Davis is still on this team and can certainly do his own scoring and playmaking for the team. Both of them have that mentality that can lead them to big wins.
Can Ian Jackson’s Ascension Lead UNC to the Big Dance?
Ian Jackson can easily lead them to the NCAA Tournament. I think the bigger question will be if he can lead them to a Final Four. With help and some defense, Jackson has the ability to put the team on his back and lead them to a win over any team in the country. He will be drafted into the NBA because of his immense talent, he makes the Tar Heels one of the most dangerous teams in the country. They need Trimble back to compete for an ACC title, but his injury may just be the thing that saves North Carolina’s season.
