The story of Hubert Davis begins with Roy Williams‘ retirement after the 2020-21 season. Williams did what North Carolina coaches are supposed to do: win. He won three national championships during his 18 seasons with the Tar Heels. Davis took over and looked destined to win from the start. After making the NCAA Tournament as an eight seed, they went all the way to the 2022 national championship game. The Tar Heels blew a 16-point lead to lose to the Kansas Jayhawks. Since then, the Tar Heels have been stuck in neutral, culminating with a 13-point loss to Louisville on Wednesday. So what is Davis’ coaching future? Can he bring a national championship to Chapel Hill?
Hubert Davis’ Coaching Future: Did UNC Make a Mistake?
Lack of Quality Wins Clouds Hubert Davis’ Coaching Future
Nothing has hurt the Tar Heels since that national championship game more than big games. One of the biggest signs of a good basketball team is winning what the NET describes as a quad one (Q1) win. The best teams in the country win Q1 games at a high rate and earn high seeds in the NCAA Tournament. In the 2022-23 season, they went an abysmal 1-9 in Q1 games. Fittingly, they were unable to make the NCAA Tournament, because they couldn’t pick up a key win to bolster their resume. North Carolina doesn’t miss the NCAA Tournament. That’s not how the program works.
Davis turned things around in 2023-24, going 9-3 in Q1 games. They earned a one seed in the NCAA tournament, but they were unable to beat their Sweet Sixteen opponent, Alabama. North Carolina was favored in that game but fell short in a very winnable game. The pattern has continued this season: a crushing loss in the tournament, followed by a disappointing season. So far, North Carolina is only 2-6 in Q1 games. North Carolina has set a reputation for winning championships, but Davis’ teams have been unable to pull off big wins more often than not.
Inconsistency
The last section began to highlight this issue, but there should not be such a drastic change between each season. North Carolina began each of the last three seasons with national championship aspirations but only put together a solid NCAA Tournament resume in one. There is time to turn around this season, and their strength of schedule (SOS) puts them in a strong position to make the tournament if they can win games. However, they’ve shown nothing this season that provides a sense of optimism for this turnaround. RJ Davis has been a star, but the help around him has been nothing short of lackluster.
Like all teams, the roster has had some turnaround. However, no program with championship aspirations should have such drastic swings in important games. In the ACC/SEC Challenge, anyone could see that North Carolina stood no chance against Alabama. Auburn handled them with ease. Davis’ coaching future has to be in question when they are uncompetitive in big-time matchups. Williams missed the NCAA Tournament only twice in 18 seasons. Davis is in serious danger of missing twice in four seasons.
Great Offense, No Defense
There is an old adage: defense wins championships. Let’s take a quick look at the last three national champions and where they finished in the KenPom defensive efficiencies at the end of the season.
- 2024 UConn: 4th
- 2023 UConn: 7th
- 2022 Kansas: 17th
People remember their offenses, but their defensive numbers were just as good. Defense wins championships. There is no reason to believe Davis doesn’t care about defense, but North Carolina has not played solid defense in three of the last four seasons.
- 24-25: 63rd
- 23-24: 8th
- 22-23: 46th
- 21-22: 35th
23-24 stands out for one reason: they were actually good. North Carolina can score with the best offensive teams in the country (when they’re executing, which has been inconsistent at best). However, the one successful season they’ve had in recent years thrived because of their defense. This season, Davis has been unable to put together a defensive game plan to stop any team with a pulse. That is far below the expectation at North Carolina.
Did North Carolina Make a Mistake?
Hubert Davis’ coaching future is in serious question. He has relatively unlimited resources at his disposal with blue-chip talent in every seat in the meeting room. College basketball relies on recruiting top-notch talent to have success. However, the ability to enhance that talent and win with them leads to championships. Davis has shown an inconsistent ability at best to maintain the level of coaching that is required to win a championship.
If Davis is unable to win a national championship, North Carolina made a mistake. The Tar Heels sit at 8-6 after a uninspiring loss to the limping Louisville Cardinals. Halfway through this season, I can’t help but believe that the Tar Heels will look for another coach to take over for Davis if the trend continues. Davis has the rest of this season to prove he can develop talent and win at Chapel Hill.
I’m not here to call for somebody’s job, but I firmly believe one thing: Davis will be gone if he can’t right the ship soon, proving that North Carolina made a mistake in hiring him. He isn’t the only ACC coach who appears to be in trouble this season, and he certainly won’t be the last.
